Morning Digest: How Ramaswamy could sabotage the Ohio GOP all the way down the ballot
One of my favorite traditions here at The Downballot is our election prediction contest, which we’ve hosted annually for two decades. In case you didn’t see our post announcing this year’s event, you’ll definitely want to check it out: We ask you to guess the outcome of dozens of hotly contested races, ranging from high-profile Senate battles to deep dives far down the ballot. And the best part is, the winners all receive a handsome gift basket filled with the tastiest treat known to humanity: babka from the one and only Green’s Bakery. Only paid subscribers like you are eligible for prizes! I hope you’ll participate, because it’s a ton of fun, and even if you don’t win, there are always bragging rights at stake. Now get busy picking, and good luck to all! – David Morning Digest: How Ramaswamy could sabotage the Ohio GOP all the way down the ballotOffices like attorney general, long held by Republicans, are now in play
Leading OffOhioVivek Ramaswamy’s disastrous campaign for governor, along with Republican Sen. Jon Husted’s own struggles in his bid for a full term, have given Ohio Democrats reason to hope that they can break the GOP’s 16-year grip on other powerful offices and rebuild their bench in this former swing state. Republicans are defending open seats in four statewide races—attorney general, secretary of state, state auditor, and state treasurer—amid a challenging political climate. These posts, along with the governor and lieutenant governor, are known as the state’s executive offices, and Republicans have controlled all six without interruption since the 2010 GOP wave. Thanks to term limits, turnover is hitting the entire current crop of Republican incumbents. However, all four made plans to stick around by running for another executive office. Some, however, haven’t gone as intended. Both Attorney General Dave Yost and Husted, who was twice elected lieutenant governor as Gov. Mike DeWine’s running mate, spent years preparing bids to replace the termed-out governor. Just a bit further down the ballot, the merry-go-round was set to keep spinning with Auditor Keith Faber running to succeed Yost as attorney general, Secretary of State Frank LaRose seeking Faber’s job, and Treasurer Robert Sprague campaigning for secretary of state. Only the treasurer’s office looked like it would be left out of this high-stakes game of musical chairs. But the music stopped early for one key player. While Yost might have been pleased in January of 2025 when DeWine appointed Husted to fill JD Vance’s vacant Senate seat, any joy evaporated the next month when Ramaswamy entered the governor’s race with Donald Trump’s backing. Yost searched in vain for an opening against the new frontrunner but dropped out a year before the primary. Deciding that the only winning move was not to play, he resigned as attorney general this spring to take a new job with a conservative Christian group. DeWine then tapped Andy Wilson, who is not running for any office, to serve out the final months of Yost’s term. Faber, LaRose, and Sprague, by contrast, had little trouble winning their respective primaries in May. The Republican nomination for treasurer, meanwhile, went to Jay Edwards, a former state representative who, with Vance’s support, beat a Ramaswamy ally in a nationally watched contest. This quartet began the general election with reason to feel good about their chances in a GOP-dominated state that Trump easily carried in all three of his campaigns. But 2026 has had other ideas. Trump’s poor approval ratings, combined with other issues like voter backlash against the proliferation of data centers, have complicated things for Husted as he tries to fend off former Sen. Sherrod Brown in a special election for the final two years of Vance’s term. Ramaswamy and running mate Rob McColley, likewise, were already struggling against the team of former state health director Amy Acton and David Pepper even before last week, when Ramaswamy’s instantly infamous ad starring Acton’s estranged mother introduced a new problem for the entire GOP ticket. “It’s not something I would ever do,” Faber told the Toledo Blade last week. But Faber, who said he hoped the spot wouldn’t harm other GOP candidates, was one of several hopefuls who joined Ramaswamy at an event Friday. “You are the company you keep,” John Kulewicz, the Democratic nominee for attorney general, wrote on social media earlier that day. Kulewicz, who serves on the city council for the Columbus suburb of Upper Arlington, continued, “Keith Faber’s decision not to denounce the new advertisement from Vivek Ramaswamy is part of a troubling pattern of standing with proponents of child sexual abuse.” Faber isn’t the only Republican trying to distance himself from Ramaswamy without actually denouncing him as Democrats continue to make the ad a liability. “I think that the Ohio citizens are going to decide what’s truthful and what’s good and what is fair, and we’ll let them decide that, and I’m focused on the secretary of state race, my race, and making sure that I do a great job securing our elections,” Sprague told WTOV. His Democratic opponent, state Rep. Allison Russo, eagerly shared that quote on social media, snarking, “Vague Bob Sprague is always a profile in courage.” Two Democrats round out the slate for executive office: auditor nominee Annette Blackwell, who serves as mayor of Maple Heights, a small city outside of Cleveland; and Cincinnati City Councilmember Seth Walsh, the candidate for treasurer. The GOP’s woes could also extend into a pair of battles for the state Supreme Court. Democrats are simultaneously defending Justice Jennifer Brunner, the lone remaining Democrat on the seven-member court, while hoping to unseat Republican incumbent Dan Hawkins. Democrats are also eager to break the GOP’s three-fifths supermajority in the legislature so that Republicans can’t override Acton’s vetoes should she win. Their best bet is the state House, where they need to flip six seats. Have you submitted your picks for The Downballot’s annual election prediction contest? If you want to win the most amazing babka on the planet, then hop to it! HouseSpending & TriageWith just one week left to go, the House playing field continues to both expand and contract. You can keep tabs on all spending and triage by the top national groups involved in House races with our independent expenditure database and our triage tracker, both of which we update continuously. FL-07: The House Majority PAC has canceled its remaining reservations in Florida’s 7th District, according to AdImpact data shared by Axios’ Andrew Solender. The race became a much tougher lift for Democrat Bale Dalton after Ryan Elijah defeated scandal-plagued Rep. Cory Mills in the August GOP primary. Last week, HMP pulled more than $500,000 from the contest. FL-27: HMP has also cut another than $875,000 from Florida’s 27th District, where Democrat Eliott Rodriguez is hoping to unseat Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, per Solender. The PAC made a similar drawdown last week. It still has reservations left in the Miami media market, but those bookings may get directed toward other contests. MN-01: The House Majority PAC is making a large, late play for Minnesota’s conservative 1st District, where Republican Rep. Brad Finstad finds himself in an unexpectedly close race. According to Punchbowl, HMP is coming in with $2.2 million to boost Democrat Jake Johnson. NY-03: Even though Republicans gave up on flipping New York’s 3rd District in mid-October after spending millions on the race, HMP is now spending close to $1 million to shore up Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi, per AdImpact data from Punchbowl’s Ally Mutnick. According to an unnamed source who spoke with Mutnick, Democrats “feel good about Suozzi but want to give him a little boost since he saw a lot of GOP attack ads.” NC-11: HMP seems to agree with Republicans that North Carolina’s 11th District is a lost cause for the GOP. Per Solender, the PAC has trimmed around $150,000 from the race. Last week, the Donald Trump-funded No Going Back PAC reportedly cut $1.5 million in ad time as Democrat Jamie Ager has dominated Republican Jennifer Balkcom in fundraising and polling. OH-01: HMP is also expressing confidence in Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman, even though Republicans pushed his district almost 10 points to the right on the presidential level with their new gerrymander. The PAC has canceled almost $200,000 in broadcast time, Solender reports, after making a similar move a week ago. Earlier this month, GOP groups reportedly bailed on the contest. Poll PileAll polls must comply with The Downballot’s requirements.
Thank you so much for being a paid subscriber to The Downballot! If you’d like to further support our work, you can donate on our ActBlue page. |
Comments
Post a Comment