Middleboro Review and so on

                     THIS IS ONE OF THE GREAT IN-DEPTH REPORTS AVAILABLE TO                      SUBSCRIBERS!                        This post is being made available exclusively to paid subscribers like yourself. Thank you for making The Downballot possible. House race polling also points to a big blue wave Our new "named congressional ballot" aligns with other metrics predicting Democratic dominance Daniel Donner Oct 12 ∙ A recent Democratic poll of a House race in Ohio featured a remarkable finding. In the 15th District around Columbus, represented by Republican Mike Carey, the survey found Democratic challenger Don Leonard leading by a 46-45 margin. What made the result so noteworthy is that Carey’s district voted for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris by a comfortable 10-point spread in 2024....

  If you haven’t read it yet, I strongly encourage you to check out Daniel Donner’s groundbreaking new report that explains how primary turnout predicts general election results. This piece is exclusively available to paid subscribers like you. Massive primary turnout points to biggest year for Democrats since Watergate Daniel Donner · Sep 22 Read full story The bottom line is that massive turnout in Democratic primaries across the nation this year suggests that Democrats could rack up a monster 13-point margin in the House popular vote. That would translate into a huge landslide beyond even what we saw in 2018—but only if Democrats are prepared to capitalize on it. Beyond the key takeaway, I also want to emphasize the extraordinary work that went into this piece. Dan didn’t just scribble out a few numbers on the back of a napkin. He collected election results going back more than a century, and in so doing, he uncovered a previously hidden pattern that has held true for eight dec...