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POLITICO Nightly: The Trump agenda gets its first stress test

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  By  Calder McHugh Then-Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump stands on stage with family members, then-Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance and his wife, Usha Vance, during the 2024 Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on July 18, 2024. | Carolyn Kaster/AP TUESDAY NIGHT SPECIALS  — Not even 100 days into President Donald Trump’s second term, voters will go to the polls on Tuesday for the first big, early test of the national mood in the wake of his aggressive efforts to remake the federal government. The most closely watched races are in Wisconsin , where there is a fierce fight for a state Supreme Court seat that will determine the partisan control of the judicial body, and in Florida , where there’s a congressional race in Florida that has the potential to embarrass Trump in the event of a weak GOP performance. There are three broadly plausible scenarios: First, the GOP wins these races easily, leaving Trump’s teflon coating unscratched an...