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Showing posts with the label POLLING

How The Downballot reports on and analyzes polls

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How The Downballot reports on and analyzes polls Polling can be very useful, but we have strict requirements for what we will—and won’t—include David Nir Sep 8 From our earliest days more than two decades ago, election polls have always been of interest to us at The Downballot, since they can tell us a great deal about a given race and the electorate at large. But they also have their limitations, which is why we have strict requirements before we include a poll in our coverage. These are requirements we’ve adhered to for a long time and have written about before . The world of polling has changed a good deal since the last time we visited the topic in depth, though, so we felt an update was warranted. Below, we discuss each of our requirements, as well as other factors we take into account to best derive meaning from survey data. Requirements Pollster name Most pollsters have reputations, some good and some bad. Without knowing who conducted a poll, we have no way to place it in the c...

POLITICO NIGHTLY: Dems’ big midterm bet pays off — so far

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  View in browser   BY  MYAH WARD Presented by Democratic candidate for governor Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro greets a Steelworkers Union in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. Shapiro faces far-right Republican challenger Doug Mastriano, who dems boosted in the primary, in the general election in November. | Mark Makela/Getty Images RISKY BUSINESS   — Tuesday marks exactly six weeks until Election Day, when we’ll finally get resolution on one of the most widely discussed — and consequential — storylines of the 2022 election: the Democratic Party’s practice of meddling in Republican primaries in the hopes of producing unelectable nominees. It was a risky bet, but at the moment, it appears to be paying off. In the six races where Democrats were successful in boosting hard-right candidates to the GOP nomination, many of the Republicans are lagging in the polls, struggling to raise money and forced to explain past controversial statements. In three governors races wh...