Morning Digest, sponsored by Oath: We've got the lowdown on all of California's Democrat vs. Democrat contests
If you haven’t read it yet, I strongly encourage you to check out Daniel Donner’s groundbreaking new report that explains how primary turnout predicts general election results. This piece is exclusively available to paid subscribers like you. The bottom line is that massive turnout in Democratic primaries across the nation this year suggests that Democrats could rack up a monster 13-point margin in the House popular vote. That would translate into a huge landslide beyond even what we saw in 2018—but only if Democrats are prepared to capitalize on it. Beyond the key takeaway, I also want to emphasize the extraordinary work that went into this piece. Dan didn’t just scribble out a few numbers on the back of a napkin. He collected election results going back more than a century, and in so doing, he uncovered a previously hidden pattern that has held true for eight decades—a robust data set that allowed us to make the forecast I described above. This sort of relentless, data-driven hunt for knowledge that others have neglected or overlooked is at the very core of our mission here at The Downballot. And it’s possible because we’ve assembled a team of staff and contributors who are as passionate about exploring elections as they are about pursuing the truth. Your support has made all of this a reality. Thank you so much, David Morning Digest, sponsored by Oath: We've got the lowdown on all of California's Democrat vs. Democrat contestsThanks to the top-two primary, several incumbents still face serious intra-party trouble
Leading OffCaliforniaAllies of Rep. Doris Matsui have launched new attacks against Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang ahead of the general election for California’s 7th District, one of five competitive congressional races in the state that will feature two Democrats on the November ballot. The $400,000 ad campaign from Affordable California 2026, which was flagged Tuesday by analyst Rob Pyers, argues that Vang has little to show for her decade of public service, first on a local school board and later as a member of the City Council. An accompanying website declares, “If Mai Vang can’t deliver here… She won’t deliver in Congress.”
The challenger’s critics made a similar argument against Vang, who says California’s capital city needs a more progressive representative, ahead of June’s top-two primary. That message, however, didn’t resonate as they’d hoped. Matsui’s supporters tried to prevent Vang from reaching the general election by weakening her and elevating Republican Zachariah Wooden, an otherwise unknown college student. Such an outcome would have all but ensured another easy win for Matsui, who was first elected in 2005 to replace her late husband Bob Matsui, in a constituency Kamala Harris would have carried 55-42. Vang, however, not only advanced, but she unexpectedly finished ahead of the congresswoman. The challenger secured first place with 31%, while Matsui edged out Wooden 29-22 for the second general election spot. The general election between Matsui, who turns 82 on Friday, and Vang, four decades her junior, was already heated before Matsui’s backers began their offensive. Vang defended her experience during a debate last month by saying, “I am older than Bob Matsui when he ran for Congress, and I have more governing experience than the congresswoman when she first started.” The incumbent, after highlighting her prior work in the Clinton administration, responded, “And don’t bring Bob Matsui into this discussion. We are talking about the race now.” Matsui, in a subsequent interview with ABC10, argued her seniority and experience make her too valuable to lose. She told the station, “Campaigning is not the same as governance,” adding, “I know that I’ve delivered.” “If seniority would have saved us, we wouldn’t be here today,” Vang said in her own interview with ABC10. “Do we want the experience of maintaining the status quo? That’s my opponent. But if you want a fighter who’s going to fight for your family, that’s me.” California’s new congressional map, which voters approved last year in response to Republican gerrymandering in Texas and other states, presents another complication for Matsui. Data from The Downballot shows that just around three-quarters of residents of the new 7th District also lived in the previous version, depriving Matsui of some of the benefits of incumbency. Matsui, though, enjoys a small advantage in outside spending for the general election. Data from the FEC shows that pro-Matsui groups have spent about $610,000 since the primary, compared to $470,000 for Vang’s backers. The challenger, however, led 32-28 in the only publicly available poll of the contest, a mid-August survey from Data for Progress for several organizations supporting Vang. A 40% plurality said they were either undecided or didn’t plan to vote in the race between the two Democrats. If Matsui falls to Vang in November, she would be the first U.S. representative from the Golden State to lose reelection to a member of her own party since 2016, when Rep. Mike Honda went down in a landslide against fellow Democrat Ro Khanna. But Matsui is not the only sitting representative in danger of joining this unfortunate club, as three other Democrats face serious opposition this fall. One is Rep. Mike Thompson, who faces a tough intraparty challenge from venture capitalist Eric Jones in Northern California’s wine country. Thompson, who was first elected in 1998, led the primary for the 4th District with 41% of the vote, while Jones narrowly edged out Republican Ray Riehle 22-21 for second. Riehle returned to the news last month when he endorsed Jones and urged Republicans to support him rather than “sit out the race because both candidates are Democrats.” Harris would have carried the revamped 4th, now home to conservative areas around Yuba City along with communities like the liberal college town of Davis, 56-41, so Republicans could make an impact should they heed Riehle’s call. Supporters of Jones, 35, have focused on the 75-year-old incumbent’s age as they call for new representation. One pro-Jones ad from just before the primary compared Thompson to a molding and forgotten jar of mayo in the fridge that may have “seemed fresh in the 90s” but is now “past his expiration date.” Thompson, however, has argued that Jones would not be an agent of change. The congressman ran ads this spring blasting his opponent as “a lapdog for big corporations.” There are no publicly available polls, but Jones’ side leads in one key area. A group called New Leadership Now has spent close to $1.2 million attacking the congressman this month, a sum that represents all the outside spending in this race since the primary. Redistricting also presents an even bigger problem for Thompson than it does for Matsui, as he currently represents just 53% of the new 4th’s residents. Rep. Jimmy Gomez, meanwhile, is in serious danger in Southern California for reasons that have nothing to do with either age or redistricting. The 51-year-old Gomez, who has represented Downtown Los Angeles since his victory in a 2017 special election, appeared poised to easily secure another term in the heavily Democratic 34th District until the day of the top-two primary. That afternoon, though, CNN reported that the House Ethics Committee was investigating him for sexual misconduct. The congressman responded by saying he had made “personal mistakes outside my marriage that have caused real pain to my wife and family,” but said that his “actions were consensual in nature and haven’t violated the law or House ethics rules.” The story broke too late to impact many votes on primary day, and Gomez scored 46% of the vote. But Angela Gonzales-Torres, a community activist and fellow Democrat, outpaced the nearest Republican 31-14 for the crucial second-place spot, and she quickly called for voters to eject a scandal-ridden incumbent who “has accepted millions from AIPAC.” The story attracted new attention last month when the Ethics Committee confirmed it was investigating Gomez. A pair of attorneys soon said they were representing a woman who has accused Gomez of sexually harassing and assaulting her. There have been no public developments in the ensuing month, however, and outside groups have not reported spending anything on the race. A group critical of Gomez, though, released a poll earlier this month from Upswing Research showing him trailing Gonzales-Torres 41-38. While the survey’s sponsor, Guardrails Alliance—which was formed this year to counter pro-AI groups like Leading the Future—does not appear to have endorsed Gonzales-Torres, it identifies Gomez on its website as a member of a “gallery of rogues” backed by Leading the Future. Rep. Aisha Wahab, finally, is fighting to hold the 14th District, a safely blue seat she just won in a special election last month. In that race, Wahab defeated Melissa Hernandez, the president of the Bay Area Rapid Transit system’s board and a former mayor of the East Bay community of Dublin, by a 53-47 margin. The two were facing off to replace Eric Swalwell, a fellow Democrat who resigned in disgrace earlier this year. Wahab and Hernandez, who previously faced off twice in the month of June, will meet for their fourth and final confrontation in November. Wahab, who also took first in those previous runs, will represent 90% of the revised 14th District, though the new map moved more of Hernandez’s Dublin base into the constituency. It remains to be seen, however, whether Wahab will once again need to overcome heavy spending. While super PACs affiliated with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and AIPAC deployed about $5 million on an unsuccessful attempt to beat Wahab last month, the FEC hasn’t tracked any new independent expenditures for either side. California’s most prominent representative, finally, won’t be on the ballot this year, but she’s still playing an active role in the all-Democratic race for her seat. Nancy Pelosi is supporting San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan over state Sen. Scott Wiener, who began running to represent the 11th District before the speaker emerita even confirmed she wouldn’t seek reelection. Wiener took first in June with 41%, while Chan outpaced wealthy activist Saikat Chakrabarti, another Democrat, 30-18. Chakrabarti soon endorsed Chan, who also has several major unions on her side, in her campaign to represent most of San Francisco in Congress. Pelosi, though, has been Chan’s most high-profile surrogate. And while the incumbent has largely refrained from criticizing Wiener, she made an exception last month after the state senator released a chatbot called “ConnieChan.ai.” The bot, which impersonated the Hong Kong-born Chan saying, “I’m afraid my San Francisco accent is so thick I can barely understand myself,” drew condemnation from Pelosi and other notables. Wiener ultimately apologized and took the program down. “I haven’t said anything about her opponent except when he tried to put words in the mouth of a woman, which is something that I have been fighting to protect my whole career,” Pelosi told the New York Times of the incident. Wiener, who would be the first gay person to represent what has long been a center of LGBTQ life in Congress, has argued that voters shouldn’t let their outgoing representative pick their new one. “Nancy has basically taken over Connie’s campaign,” he said to Politico last month. “I’m running an independent campaign with enormous grassroots support, and no one has taken over my campaign.” There’s been no recent polling, but Wiener has a decisive advantage when it comes to outside spending. His backers have deployed $1.2 million since the primary, almost twice as much as the $750,000 from Chan’s side. Three other House seats also feature general election matchups between Democrats. Reps. Lateefah Simon, Luz Rivas, and Sydney Kamlager, however, each face unheralded opponents in their quest for reelection. Meanwhile, just one of California’s 52 House districts hosts an all-Republican contest, but it’s a big one. Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim both converged on the 40th District in Southern California after the new map made nearby seats considerably more Democratic. (Calvert was last elected in 2024 to serve the 41st District, while Kim won the old 40th.) Calvert currently represents 51% of the new seat’s residents compared to 32% for Kim, and that geographical advantage gave him reason to feel good about his prospects. The first round of voting accordingly went well for the congressman, who led with 35% as Kim outpaced the leading Democrat just 21-17. Since then, however, the congresswoman and her allies released a pair of polls this summer showing Calvert ahead by just a single percentage point. A pro-Kim group followed up last week with a survey from Grassroots Targeting showing her beating Calvert 43-34. However, while Calvert’s supporters have yet to release any data of their own, they’ve been anything but silent when it comes to spending. A pro-Calvert group called Americans 4 Security has dropped just over $2 million since the primary, while Kim’s backers have yet to engage in the second round. The Downballot PodcastPrimary turnout forecasts a Dem blowoutDemocrats have blown past Republicans in primary turnout this year, but does it mean anything for November? The answer is a very firm “yes,” as co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast. In a groundbreaking special report, our colleague Daniel Donner collected more than a century’s worth of data on primaries that demonstrate a very close correlation with general election results—and it all points toward a potential landslide for Democrats of epic proportions. The Davids also sit down with Sara Kohen, who’s running to serve on the board of directors of the Omaha Public Power District, a major electric utility that serves nearly a million people. As Kohen tells us, the OPPD’s board holds major sway over how power is generated for its customers, including whether to pursue renewable energy over fossil fuels. She also details her conversations with voters, who are particularly concerned about data centers and soaring utility bills. SenateFL-SenA super PAC partially funded by conservative megadonor Ken Griffin is spending $2.7 million to thwart Democrat Angie Nixon, making this the first independent expenditure targeting her since her surprise victory in last month’s Senate primary in Florida. Stronger Safer Nation, whose spending was flagged Tuesday evening by analyst Rob Pyers, received much of its funding in the second quarter of the year, when Republicans were preparing to help Sen. Ashley Moodey against a different Democrat. At the time, former National Security Council advisor Alex Vindman, who rose to prominence during Trump’s first impeachment, appeared to be on a glide path in the primary. But despite raising a fraction of what her opponent had, Nixon, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, upset Vindman 56-44 in the Aug. 18 primary. Republicans, who were already favored in November, celebrated Nixon’s win, but some polls have shown her and other Florida Democrats with an unexpected opening. Last week, a St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics found her tied at 45 apiece with Moody, while the governor’s race between Democrat David Jolly and Republican Byron Donalds was similarly deadlocked. Poll PileAll polls must comply with The Downballot’s requirements.
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