Understanding Iran’s Negotiating Rhetoric
Understanding Iran’s Negotiating RhetoricIran says it remains open to diplomacy, but its demands haven't changed. Understanding Tehran's rhetoric reveals a grim reality.
Guest article by Brett Erickson, Managing Principal of Obsidian Risk Advisors
In the Western world, it is very easy to view comments made by individuals in the Iranian government and extrapolate conclusions that seem logical on their own. But in order to fully grasp the complete understanding of Iran’s negotiating rhetoric, particularly in recent days when all signs point to escalation on the horizon, you need to look beyond just the individual words and examine the complete picture. On Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi released a statement that said: “While our Brave Armed Forces are fully prepared to defend the Homeland, Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed. We remain in close and ongoing contact with intermediaries to review ideas that can ensure implementation of our 7-Day Plan in even less than a week.” It would be entirely reasonable to look at this statement without the deeper context and come to the conclusion that Abbas Araghchi is stating that Iran is desperate for a deal with the United States. But unfortunately for the Trump Administration… that’s not what Araghchi is saying here at all. In a recent op-ed published by Araghchi in the Financial Times this past week, Araghchi stated: “The recent escalation across the region, which shows how quickly this conflict can spread and how far its consequences can reach, is evidence of the major risk to international peace and security. In spite of all this, as a career diplomat, I am obliged to do my utmost to give diplomacy a chance, even when hope of success is scant.” “If the US again chooses military action over diplomacy, I can say with complete and utter confidence that it will result in an even greater strategic failure. Iran, an ancient and proud civilisation, does not bend its knee to any power.” In essence, what Araghchi is saying here is: “Please don’t make us crush you. We don’t WANT to throw the global economy off the cliff as a result of your recklessness. Accept reality, let’s cut a deal, and be done with this foolishness.” Throughout the entirety of the post-Memorandum of Understanding period, Iran’s demands have not moved in the slightest. The only core demand that exists at this point for Iran is that the United States accepts reality and returns the agreed-upon MOU. If not, then there will unfortunately be war. And while many inside of Iran see reality for what it certainly is, a President of the United States who is fundamentally incapable of living in the real world, others, like Mr. Araghchi here, are still a bit on the more “hopelessly optimistic” side of things. Consistently throughout the post-MOU period, Iran has repeatedly indicated that they are open to negotiations. And in a way… they are! It’s just that their terms are the exact same ones that President Trump has been unable to move forward with, and they haven’t changed in the slightest. The truth of the matter, unless something drastic changes, is that President Trump views a deal with Iran as was under the MOU as the single most detrimental course of action at this time to HIS legacy. That is what is truly driving Trump’s decision-making process at this time. It’s not about you, it’s not about me, it’s not about the rest of the world… it’s about one DJT. And despite the optimism from Abbas Araghchi and other “more dovish” figures like him inside of Iran, the leadership structure in Tehran has become increasingly hardline as a direct result of the United States’ surprise attacks on Iran that began this whole war. Certainly, Iran is “open” to negotiations with the United States, but the harsh truth is that many in Iran see that the only possible way in which Mr. Trump can be convinced to agree to a realistic deal is if the alternative scenario of economic catastrophe plays out to such a degree that a global economic depression takes hold. Then, and only then, will Donald Trump make the calculus that the best thing for his own legacy is to accept a deal with Iran, because the alternative in a global economic depression would be far worse. While it is easy to look at statements made by Iranian government officials in isolation, we must instead seek to view them in the context of the strategic realities of the war, the repeated patterns and trends that they have followed over the past 8 months, and draw one grim conclusion: It is very likely that the only way to bring about an end to this war… is far more destructive war. Brett Erickson is the Managing Principal of Obsidian Risk Advisors and a board member of DePaul Biz and Seton Hall IR. His expertise in financial markets, risk management, and global affairs has been featured by major outlets including Bloomberg, Reuters, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, and the BBC.
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