Morning Digest: How Maine Democrats plan to implement ranked-choice voting for governor this fall
Morning Digest: How Maine Democrats plan to implement ranked-choice voting for governor this fallThe state Supreme Court stands in their way, but they're hoping for some help from ... Alaska
Leading OffME-GovDemocrats in the Maine legislature began a new push on Tuesday to urge the state Supreme Court to revisit a nine-year-old opinion saying that general elections for state office can’t be decided using ranked-choice voting. Lawmakers seeking to force the issue passed a bill explicitly saying that general elections for governor and the legislature can be conducted using RCV. They also approved a separate resolution requesting that the state’s highest court issue a new advisory opinion about whether this system can be implemented. They’re able to do so because of an unusual provision in the state constitution saying that justices “shall be obliged to give their opinion upon important questions of law, and upon solemn occasions” if asked by the governor or either chamber of the legislature. The effort comes amid a packed race to succeed Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, who cannot seek a third term. But while RCV rules will be in place for the June 9 primaries for both parties, candidates need only a plurality of the vote to prevail in the fall general election. And the next governor could well be elected without a majority. That’s because two legislators are running as independents: state Sen. Rick Bennett, who left the Republican Party last June, and state Rep. Ed Crockett, who dropped his Democratic affiliation in September. Their campaigns have the potential to create a competitive four-way race in a state where unaffiliated candidates have won the governor’s office or come close a number of times. The most recent occasion arose in 2010, when Republican Paul LePage edged out independent Eliot Cutler by just a 38-36 margin, with Democrat Libby Mitchell a distant third at 19%. After LePage took office, Mainers frustrated with their new governor’s far-right agenda lamented that he would have lost had Mitchell’s supporters consolidated behind Cutler. The 2016 passage of a ballot measure broadly enacting RCV seemed to usher in a new era for state politics, but things didn’t go quite the way proponents anticipated. Lawmakers instead passed a resolution declaring that the law’s adoption was a “solemn occasion” requiring the state Supreme Court to advise them on how the new system should be implemented. The justices responded by issuing a unanimous advisory opinion months later saying that the state constitution forbade its use in general elections for state offices, specifically those for governor and legislature. The court explained that Maine’s governing document mandates these posts be elected “by a plurality” of the vote, while RCV would force the winner to secure majority support. This rule, however, did not apply to the primaries for those offices, or to federal offices at all. (Presidential elections were unaffected by the new law.) While the opinion wasn’t legally binding—Maine is one of 11 states whose top courts can issue opinions that are solely advisory in nature—officials chose not to test it, since a lawsuit over a genuine dispute about RCV would almost certainly have resulted in an adverse ruling by the Supreme Court. That locked in a new status quo that left the state with two different election systems. In primaries for both congressional and state offices, voters cast ranked-choice ballots, but in general elections, they only do so for Congress. “It’s long past time to eliminate this confusion, honor the will of the voters and affirm the constitutionality of [ranked choice voting] in gubernatorial and legislative elections,” Democratic state Sen. Cameron Reny argued Tuesday as she promoted the bill to bring about this change. Reny and her allies also believe that they’ve addressed the key concern the justices had in 2017. They’ve pointed to a 2022 decision by the Alaska Supreme Court in a similar case that explicitly rejected the reasoning of Maine’s top court. In Alaska, which adopted ranked-choice voting at the ballot box in 2020, the state Constitution requires that candidates for governor receive “the greatest number of votes.” The justices interpreted this to mean a plurality. However, they also ruled that, because “the vote count is not final after the first round of tabulation,” candidates don’t necessarily win if they have the most first-choice votes. They also wrote that, because voters aren’t obligated to fill out a complete ballot, candidates can still be elected with a plurality thanks to “exhausted” ballots. That decision is not binding in Maine, but RCV proponents in the Pine Tree State hope that the Alaska ruling will convince their own high court to take a new look at the system. Even if they’re right, though, the Maine Morning Star’s Lauren McCauley writes that such a change may not come in time for this fall’s elections. McCauley explains that lawmakers will hold off on sending their bill to Mills until they receive a new advisory opinion from the court. That opinion will help them decide whether to submit the legislation to Mills, who is running for the U.S. Senate, for her signature or veto. Mills’ team did not respond to the Portland Press Herald’s inquiries about what she’d do if the bill were to reach her desk. Some Democrats have objected precisely because they believe that it’s too late to change the rules for 2026. State Sen. Craig Hickman argued before the legislature, “Making major changes to our laws in an election year is simply untenable for me.” Hickman also said he believed that the “solemn occasion” power is “murky at best,” saying it would be better for the law to be signed so that the courts could issue a binding opinion settling the question once and for all. Reny, though, believes that it’s the status quo that’s unsustainable. “Not enacting this legislation this year risks going through a monumental election year with a patchwork voting system,” she said in a statement to the Press Herald. “And enacting this legislation without more legal clarity risks too much uncertainty.” The Downballot has changed the way people think—and talk—about special elections. Not so long ago, these races were dismissed as inconsequential at best. But our nuanced, data-driven analysis has put these contests front and center as a forecasting tool that everyone relies on today. If you appreciate our unique approach and want to know about the most important special elections long before they happen, please consider upgrading to support our work. The Downballot PodcastThe Great Hochul TurnaroundAfter her weak win in 2022, Kathy Hochul’s political future looked dicey. Now, though, New York’s governor has a clear ride through the Democratic primary and looks to be in strong shape in the general election, too. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explore Hochul’s remarkable—and remarkably unexpected—bounceback, fueled by her eagerness to go head-to-head with Donald Trump. The Davids also recap a string of recent elections, including progressive activist Analilia Mejia’s stunning upset in New Jersey, a big win for Louisiana Democrats on rural turf, and another massive overperformance by a Democrat in a deep-red district in Oklahoma. The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript! SenateAL-SenA super PAC funded by the crypto sector has launched a $5 million buy to promote Alabama Rep. Barry Moore in the May 19 GOP Senate primary, Bloomberg reports. The ads from Defend American Jobs emphasize that Moore is Donald Trump’s endorsed candidate to replace Sen. Tommy Tuberville, who is running for governor. Moore faces six intraparty rivals, including Attorney General Steve Marshall and Navy SEAL veteran Jared Hudson. Candidates need to win a majority of the vote to avert a runoff on June 16. GovernorsGA-GovThe newest Republican running for Georgia’s open governorship is also the latest contender to file a lawsuit challenging a state law that allows one of his opponents to raise and spend unlimited sums. That candidate is wealthy healthcare executive Rick Jackson, who is asking a federal court to strike down a law that lets a handful of politicians, including the governor and lieutenant governor, create “leadership committees” that face no limits on fundraising or spending. That law has given Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, who is also running for governor, access to such a committee by virtue of his current position. It’s also been attacked in court repeatedly but unsuccessfully by other GOP candidates vying to succeed term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp. Last year, a federal judge concluded that a third Republican hopeful, Attorney General Chris Carr, had erred by suing Jones rather than the state of Georgia, since his injury was traceable to state law and not his rival. Then, just last month, a fourth candidate in the primary, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, saw his challenge rejected by a different federal judge because, instead of attacking the law directly, Raffensperger had asked the court to block two other statutes imposing fundraising limits on his campaign. These judges have broadly observed that the leadership committee statute is likely unconstitutional, though, so why do Jones’ opponents keep floundering in court? When Carr lost his case, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution suggested that a direct attack on the law, if successful, could rankle Kemp, who has relied on it to raise enormous sums and wield immense power over the legislature. Jackson, by contrast, is a political outsider who is likely unconcerned about such considerations. NH-GovFormer Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington plans to announce a second campaign for governor of New Hampshire “soon,” the Union Leader’s Kevin Landrigan wrote on Wednesday. Warmington, who lost the 2024 primary for this post, would be the first major Democrat to challenge Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte. HouseAZ-01It seems that even Donald Trump has gotten tired of seeing election conspiracy theorist Kari Lake’s name on the ballot. The Atlantic reports that Lake, who lost both the 2022 race for governor of Arizona and the Senate race two years later, appeared at the White House in October to ask for Trump’s endorsement for a planned run for Congress somewhere in the Grand Canyon State. Lake’s name had come up as a possible candidate in the 1st District, but knowing her, she could have run anywhere. An unnamed White House source, however, says that, after being made to wait in a lobby “for hours,” she was instead sent to a “low-level aide who conveyed no enthusiasm for a third Lake candidacy.” Lake, who became Trump’s head of Voice of America following her back-to-back losses, responded to the publication’s request for comment by saying that “every shred of this question is incorrect.” She added, “If and when I decide to run for office, The Atlantic will be the very last to know.” Lake, who recently bought a condo in her home state of Iowa, has yet to take any obvious steps toward running for any office this year in any state. FL-02Florida Rep. Neal Dunn didn’t dismiss rumors on Wednesday that he might resign for health reasons—and deprive GOP leaders of a much-needed vote. “No comment,” he said in response to Politico’s inquiries. When Dunn, who announced last month that he wouldn’t seek a sixth term representing the conservative 2nd District, was asked about his health, he responded, “Don’t I look good?” A Dunn spokesperson, however, told Florida Politics that the congressman planned to serve out the remaining 11 months of his term. But that declaration didn’t silence talk that he was planning to leave well before next January. “I’m not sure—you need to ask him about it,” Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters on Wednesday when they quizzed him about Dunn’s potential resignation. “But I’ve encouraged him to stay and be a part of this, and I think he wants to do that.” Johnson, though, may not be quite as confident as he claims to be. “House Republican leadership believes that Neal Dunn is going to resign by July,” Punchbowl News’ Jake Sherman tweeted. “I know Dunn is denying it. But the leadership thinks he’s gone in five months.” The GOP primary field to succeed Dunn in northern Florida, meanwhile, is continuing to expand—even though no one’s sure now if there will be a special election before the regularly scheduled August primary. Audie Rowell, a former chief deputy in Walton County’s sheriff’s office, and Jim Norton, a local school superintendent, both announced this week that they would run to represent the 2nd District. Franklin County Sheriff A.J. “Tony” Smith, however, says he’s decided not to join the race. FL-07Donald Trump just endorsed seven different Republicans in Florida’s House delegation, including Rep. Cory Mills, who, as the Beastie Boys might say, got more scandals than Picasso got paint. Mills faces a primary challenge from real estate agent Sarah Ulrich and, despite the 7th District’s conservative lean, has also drawn a credible Democrat opponent in former NASA chief of staff Bale Dalton. Ulrich raised bupkes in the fourth quarter of last year, but Dalton not only outraised Mills $344,000 to just $61,000 during that timeframe, he also finished the year with a sizable cash advantage, $300,000 to $111,000. FL-27Former CBS Miami journalist Eliott Rodriguez confirmed his interest in challenging Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar a day after the Miami Herald reported he was looking at a bid, telling Politico he’s enraged about “government-funded cruelty against immigrants.” “I have a choice,” Rodriguez, whose parents are immigrants from Cuba, said. “I can continue being upset, cursing at the TV and being angry and depressed, or I can do something.” Two other Democrats, businessman Richard Lamondin and attorney Robin Peguero, are already running for Florida’s 27th District. IL-08Businessman Junaid Ahmed has launched what Politico says is “the first major broadcast buy” from any of the eight candidates competing in the March 17 Democratic primary for Illinois’ 8th District, and he’s zeroing in on just one rival. “We need leaders who meet this moment and fight back,” Ahmed tells the audience. “But my opponent, Melissa Bean, is just out of touch.” Ahmed continues, “When she was in Congress over a decade ago, she cut taxes for billionaires and voted to give ICE $26 billion.” He then pledges to fight “for ‘Medicare for All’ and to abolish ICE.” Bean and Ahmed ended 2025 with considerably more money than any of the other six Democrats running to succeed Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, who is the frontrunner in the Democratic primary for the Senate seat held by retiring incumbent Dick Durbin. Whoever wins next month’s busy nomination contest should have no trouble in the general election for the 8th District, a constituency in the western outer suburbs of Chicago that Kamala Harris carried 53-46. Bean, who was first elected to represent the 8th in 2004—back when it looked quite different geographically and politically—is running for office for the first time since she narrowly lost reelection in 2010. But Bean, who spent the years following her loss to Republican Joe Walsh working in the financial industry, remains well-connected in the political and business worlds. The former congresswoman has the support of Sen. Tammy Duckworth, who was first elected to Congress in 2012 by unseating Walsh, and Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi. As a testament to the depth of her network, she finished December with just over $1 million in the bank, with a portion of that coming from the candidate herself. Bean also has well-funded outside groups in her corner. Elect Chicago Women, an obscure outfit that reportedly has ties to the hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC, has spent at least $580,000 to help her. Fox News also says that Leading the Future, which is funded by influential members of the AI sector, plans to spend money to promote her. Ahmed, for his part, finished last year with about $840,000 on hand for his second campaign for the 8th District. Ahmed challenged Krishnamoorthi for renomination in 2022, portraying himself as a progressive alternative to the congressman. Even though Ahmed raised over $1 million for that effort, his haul was still dwarfed by Krishnamoorthi’s massive financial advantage, and he went down to a 70-30 defeat. The rest of the pack is further behind financially, but some reported having reasonably well-stocked coffers. One of them is businessman Neil Khot, who had about $570,000 banked after self-funding much of his effort. Meanwhile, Dan Tully, a former Commerce Department official who has also provided most of his campaign’s money, had $410,000 in his campaign account. A group called the Servant-Leader Fund has also spent close to $100,000 on mailers promoting Tully, which makes him the only candidate other than Bean who has benefited from outside spending so far. Two other candidates, both of whom are elected officials, ended last year with six figures on hand. Cook County Commissioner Kevin Morrison had just over $230,000. He also has the support of Walsh, who joined the Democratic Party last year after spending years as a vocal anti-Trump Republican. The other office-holder is Yasmeen Bankole, a trustee for the village of Hanover Park. Bankole, who is a former Durbin aide, had around $170,000 at the end of December, though she also has her old boss’ support. The other two candidates on the ballot, Sanjyot Dunung and Ryan Vetticad, each had under $100,000 for their campaigns. LA-05Republican state Sen. Stewart Cathey said Wednesday that he’d decided not to run for Louisiana’s 5th Congressional District, though he didn’t hide how unhappy he was about calling off his planned entry just two days before the candidate filing deadline. Cathey instead groused that Donald Trump, who backed fellow state Sen. Blake Miguez last week, had “endorsed the wrong candidate in this race.” Cathey also took umbrage with his colleague, whom he’d previously called “a clown,” for running for a seat based in the northern part of the state despite representing turf far to the south. “Our region deserves representation from someone who truly knows North Louisiana,” Cathey said, “someone who’s been to Bastrop and Bogalusa, someone who knows the difference between Franklinton and Franklin Parish because he’s been there and not just heard about them in the past two weeks.” NC-01, IL-02, IL-08A super PAC funded by wealthy figures in the AI sector will spend $500,000 to help Army veteran Laurie Buckhout in the March 3 GOP primary for North Carolina’s 1st District, Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser reports. Steinhauser adds that this outfit, known as Leading the Future, “plans to spend seven figures” to help former Democratic Reps. Jesse Jackson Jr. and Melissa Bean win their respective primaries two weeks later in Illinois’ 2nd and 8th Districts. (See our IL-08 item above for more on Bean’s race.) While both Illinois constituencies are solidly blue open seats, Buckhout is one of five Republicans competing to face off against Democratic Rep. Don Davis. Buckhout lost to Davis 50-48 in 2024 as Donald Trump was carrying the 1st 51-48, but the GOP’s new gerrymander extends Trump’s margin of victory to 55-44. A new independent poll also gives Buckhout a small lead over her intraparty opponents. Emerson College, surveying for three media organizations, shows her defeating Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck 26-22. State Sen. Bobby Hanig is in third with 11%, while Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse and attorney Ashley-Nicole Russell secure just single-digit support. North Carolina requires candidates to win at least 30% of the vote to avert a runoff on May 12. A second round of voting, though, wouldn’t take place unless the runner-up officially requests a runoff. NJ-11Just two days after floating a bid, Assemblymember Rosy Bagolie told the New Jersey Globe she will not oppose progressive activist Analilia Mejia in the June 2 primary for a full term in Congress. But Mejia, who is the favorite to win the April 16 special election for the 11th District, may instead face a familiar rival. The Globe reports that former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, who took a distant third place in last week’s special election primary, is considering seeking a rematch. Way, who benefited from $2.6 million in outside spending, has not said anything publicly about her interest in a second campaign. NY-04Former Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito is “wavering on seeking a rematch” with Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen, Newsday’s Billy House reported on Wednesday. However, House soon followed up by saying that he had received “[s]ome pushback” over his report, adding that some unnamed sources “believe D’Esposito is still strongly weighing a bid.” Last March, Donald Trump nominated D’Esposito to serve as inspector general for the Department of Labor, though he wasn’t confirmed until December. In an October confirmation hearing, he refused to answer questions about whether he might run for office again. Republicans have yet to land a candidate to take on Gillen, who unseated D’Esposito by a narrow 51-49 margin in 2024. Nassau County GOP Chair Joseph Cairo told reporters Wednesday that he anticipates someone will step up on Feb. 19, which is when Nassau Republicans will hold their convention. NY-12Former Rep. Carolyn Maloney, who had mooted a comeback bid for the district she once partly represented, has instead endorsed Assemblymember Alex Bores in the Democratic primary for New York’s 12th Congressional District. Maloney had served the district and its predecessors for 30 years, when it was based on Manhattan’s Upper East Side. However, after the neighborhood was merged with the Upper West Side following the most recent census, she found herself in the same district as Rep. Jerry Nadler. Nadler easily defeated Maloney in the 2022 primary by a 55-24 margin but announced his retirement last year. On Monday, Nadler endorsed Assemblymember Micah Lasher to succeed him. TX-34Army veteran Eric Flores has begun airing negative ads hitting Rep. Mayra Flores ahead of their showdown in the March 3 Republican primary. The two candidates, who are of no relation, are competing for the right to take on Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in Texas’ 34th District, a constituency the GOP-dominated legislature redrew last year to weaken the incumbent. Eric Flores’ spot reminds the audience that the former congresswoman, who was elected in a 2022 special election, went on to lose her next two campaigns. His narrator also touts the fact that Eric Flores is Donald Trump’s endorsed candidate. VA-06, VA-05Albemarle County Supervisor Mike Pruitt, who had been seeking the Democratic nod for Virginia’s 5th Congressional District, dropped his bid on Wednesday and instead endorsed former Rep. Tom Perriello. Last week, Perriello said he would run in the proposed 6th District, a much bluer seat, should Virginia adopt a new map this year. VA-07Former federal prosecutor J.P. Cooney, who served as the top deputy for special counsel Jack Smith, announced on Wednesday that he would run for the proposed 7th Congressional District in Virginia—a move that makes him the first prominent Democrat to join the race. While Democratic Rep. Eugene Vindman represents the current 7th, he’d be all but certain to run for reelection in the proposed 1st District, leaving the new-look 7th without an incumbent. Democratic Del. Dan Helmer has been widely reported to be interested in running in the revamped 7th but has yet to kick off a bid. VA-10, VA-06Former Del. Wendy Gooditis, who just last month launched a bid for Virginia’s 6th Congressional District, said on Wednesday that she was ending her campaign because her home would get moved to the 10th District under the new map proposed by Democrats. She instead endorsed Democratic Rep. Suhas Subramanyam, who represents the current 10th and would also run in the new version. Poll Pile
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