Morning Digest: Why Florida Democrats are hoping for upsets in Tuesday's special elections
One of the things I’ve long been proudest of at The Downballot is our ability to set aside our personal preferences when we analyze elections. Far too many pundits out there can’t separate the two. They puff up the chances of candidates they like and pooh-pooh the prospects of candidates they dislike. And when the former succeeds, it’s because they embraced that particular commentator’s preferred vision. When the latter fails, it’s because they didn’t. This approach to politics is facile and embarrassing. It misleads readers about what’s actually happening on the campaign trail and offers no guidance as to what might happen in the future. But in our broken media landscape, which rewards hot takes and ragebait, it’s all too common. At The Downballot, we reject this game outright. Whatever we might personally like to see happen has no bearing on what will happen—and that’s the only thing worth spending our time on. If you’re as sick of the hot-take caldera as we are, then we hope you’ll consider supporting our work. We always play it straight, no matter how unfashionable that might be. Thank you, David Morning Digest: Why Florida Democrats are hoping for upsets in Tuesday's special electionsRon DeSantis triggered these races, then tried to avoid holding them
Leading OffSpecial ElectionsDemocrats have the chance to flip as many as three Republican seats in the Florida legislature on Tuesday night, including one district that’s right in Donald Trump’s backyard—literally. The docket features a trio of special elections in three different parts of the state. The most competitive seat on paper is the 14th Senate District in the Tampa area, which backed Trump 2024 four years after voters supported Joe Biden. But the contest for the 87th House District, a South Florida constituency that includes Mar-a-Lago, has attracted considerably more outside money and attention. The final seat, and the reddest of the three, is the 51st House District, which is based in Polk County in the central part of the state. Republicans will keep their supermajorities in both chambers no matter how things go on Tuesday. A win in any of these contests, however, will provide Sunshine State Democrats a dose of much-needed good news after a decade of ugly elections—and give them some optimism in a year when the governorship and a U.S. Senate seat are on the line. Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is ineligible to seek a third term this fall, created the vacancy in the 14th Senate District in August when he appointed incumbent Jay Collins to the vacant post of lieutenant governor. That decision intensified chatter that DeSantis wanted Collins to succeed him as the state’s leader, but the relationship between the two Republicans became, in the words of NBC reporter Matt Dixon, “nuclear bad in the blink of an eye.” Democrats want to give DeSantis another reason to wish he’d elevated someone other than Collins, who launched an uphill campaign for governor early this year. Collins won his Senate seat in 2022 by unseating Democrat Janet Cruz, so his departure gives Democrats a chance to take it back. Collins’ victory came at a time when this Tampa-area constituency, like just about everywhere in this one-time swing state, was shifting hard to the right. Joe Biden carried this district 51-47 in 2020, according to data from the Voting and Election Science Team uploaded to Dave’s Redistricting App. Trump, though, scored a sizable 53-46 victory four years later against Kamala Harris, according to calculations from The Downballot. DeSantis, however, was in no hurry to test whether the GOP’s gains in the 14th District would outlast Trump’s declining poll numbers. The governor, as he has done so often with past vacancies, refused to call a special election, prompting the ACLU to file a lawsuit to compel him to take action. DeSantis finally scheduled the contest in October, 73 days after he picked Collins to be his new lieutenant governor. Both parties soon consolidated behind candidates for this district, which has now been vacant for more than seven months, in the race for the final months of Collins’ four-year term. The Democrats are fielding Brian Nathan, a Navy veteran and an official in the local branch of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers. Nathan, who has not sought public office before, tells Axios that his background shows that he’s different from officeholders who “haven’t gotten their hands dirty.” But while his opponent, Republican state Rep. Josie Tomkow, has far more experience in office, most voters will also be seeing her name on the ballot for the first time. Tomkow currently represents a seat in the state House that’s based entirely in Polk County, while the Senate district she’s running for is located in neighboring Hillsborough County. Nathan has argued that Tomkow is not only an outsider but also that she might not even be eligible to represent the 14th District in the first place. Citing a requirement in the state constitution saying that legislators must be “an elector and resident of the district from which elected,” Nathan has urged the state to investigate where exactly she lives. Tomkow responded last month by telling the Tampa Bay Times that her husband has lived in the 14th “for decades,” and that she would “be living here in a matter of weeks regardless of the outcome of any election.” But Tomkow, who remains registered to vote in Polk County, has refused to answer questions about whether she can vote for herself on Tuesday. While this contest looks like an inviting pickup opportunity for Democrats, Republicans enjoy a huge financial advantage in their quest to keep the district red. Election analyst Matthew Isbell says that Tomkow has hauled in at least $600,000, which is about six times as much as Nathan has reported raising. Spending has likewise been high in the 87th House District, which became vacant late summer when DeSantis appointed Republican state Rep. Mike Caruso as Palm Beach County clerk. The contest, as The Downballot previewed last month, pits Democrat Emily Gregory against Republican Jon Maples. Gregory, a first-time candidate who runs a fitness business serving pregnant and postpartum women, and Maples, a financial planner and former member of the Town Council in Lake Clarke Shores, have each raised over $400,000. Both candidates are also benefiting from support from their respective state parties. This constituency, which runs along the coast of much of northern Palm Beach County, has long been represented by Republicans even before it zoomed hard to the right during the 2020s. But Trump, who is registered to vote here, carried it 55-44 in 2024, four years after he prevailed by a slim 49.8 to 49.3 spread. Democrats, though, hope that Trump’s national unpopularity, as well as questions about Maples’ residency, will give them a shot to score a pickup in a race that has already drawn national notice. DeSantis himself seemed eager to avoid a nightmare headline for the GOP: As he did with the Senate race, he delayed scheduling this special election until Gregory filed a lawsuit. The final contest is the special election to replace Tomkow, who had to sign an irrevocable letter of resignation to run for the state Senate, in the 51st House District. There’s considerably less suspense surrounding the battle for this Polk County constituency, which has long been solidly red turf, than in the other two races. Trump carried this constituency 56-43 in 2024 and 53-46 in 2020. The Republicans are running Hilary Holley, an official at the state branch of the Future Farmers of America. The Democratic nominee is Edwin Perez, who took a distant third place last year in his race for a seat on the Haines City Council. Holley has brought in $120,000, which is close to 10 times what Perez has reported. But while the 51st is unlikely to flip, Democrats looking for clues about the mood of Florida voters will still be watching to see how Perez does compared to Harris and Biden. Redistricting RoundupMO RedistrictingA Missouri judge has ordered a new description for a ballot measure aimed at repealing the state’s new Republican-drawn congressional map, but supporters of the referendum say they may still appeal. A summary originally drafted by Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins said the map “repeals Missouri’s existing gerrymandered congressional plan that protects incumbent politicians” and instead “replaces it with new congressional boundaries that keep more cities and counties intact, are more compact, and better reflects statewide voting patterns.” Hoskins, though, later admitted that his language was potentially “argumentative” and “prejudicial,” prompting Cole County Circuit Judge Brian Stumpe to rewrite it. In a 10-page decision, he concluded that the reference to statewide voting patterns suffered from the same problem. The remainder, though, he left intact, over the objections of the map’s opponents. As a result, the ballot summary will now say that the GOP map “repeals Missouri’s congressional plan, and replaces it with new congressional boundaries that keep more cities and counties intact, and are more compact.” A spokesperson for the organization behind the referendum, People Not Politicians, characterized the ruling as “a solid victory, and important victory” in comments to the Associated Press but said the group might still appeal. SenateNE-SenThe Nebraska Supreme Court ordered Senate candidate Cindy Burbank back onto the Democratic primary ballot on Monday, concluding that Republican Secretary of State Bob Evnen had acted too late in removing her name. In a unanimous ruling, the court held that Evnen was bound by a state law requiring that objections to candidacies be made within seven days of the March 2 candidate filing deadline. According to Burbank, however, Evnen did not act until March 16, a full week after the March 9 cutoff. Because the justices ruled entirely on procedural grounds, they emphasized that there was “no reason to consider or address the merits” of Evnen’s specific objections to Burbank’s eligibility. Evnen had argued that Burbank was not a “good faith candidate” because “she has no intention to serve” in office, contrary to an oath all Nebraska candidates must sign. Burbank, however, had rejected that characterization. She has been open about her intention to support independent Dan Osborn in the general election, but in a legal filing, she said she “would, indeed, serve if elected.” In the May 12 primary, Burbank will face pastor Bill Forbes, an anti-abortion activist whom Osborn has accused of being a “stooge” for Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts. Nebraska Democrats fear that Forbes would split anti-Ricketts votes with Osborn, whom they’ve opted to support rather than endorse a candidate of their own. NM-SenThree New Mexico Republicans have put their names forward as write-ins in a trio of statewide races where the GOP failed to qualify any candidates through traditional means, including the contests for U.S. Senate, state auditor, and state treasurer. However, each of these candidates still needs to win at least 2,351 votes in the June 2 primary to appear on the general election ballot. That figure represents 2% of the number of registered Republican voters who cast a ballot in the most recent gubernatorial election. GovernorsMI-GovAnti-tax activist Karla Wagner, whose bid for Michigan’s open governorship never generated much attention, quit the GOP primary last week and said she’d instead run as an independent. Republicans still have a large number of candidates vying to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. The field includes former state Attorney General Mike Cox, Rep. John James, former state House Speaker Tom Leonard, state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, businessman Perry Johnson, and pastor Ralph Rebandt. James had wide leads in every poll taken last year, but none have been released since November. For Democrats, meanwhile, the frontrunner is Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, though she faces Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson and two other lesser-known candidates. Former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, a longtime Democrat who left the party shortly after the 2024 elections, is also waging an independent bid. HouseCA-07, CA-40California’s secretary of state has now published preliminary lists of candidates who’ve filed to run in the June 2 primaries, and while there were no late surprises, the contours of several races have come into sharper focus. Thanks to the state’s top-two primary system, the presence—or lack thereof—of even minor candidates can have an outsized impact on who advances to the November general election. Two contests stand out in particular. In the 7th District in Sacramento, longtime Democratic Rep. Doris Matsui faces a serious challenge from Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang, who has directly cited the 81-year-old incumbent’s age as a factor motivating her campaign. (Vang is 40.) But in addition to the two marquee names, two other minor Democrats and a pair of Republicans are running. Importantly, the 7th is no longer nearly as blue as it once was, thanks to the new map voters approved last fall under Proposition 50. To help boost Democrats in neighboring districts, map-makers shrunk Kamala Harris’ margin in the district from 63-33 to 55-42, one of the biggest drops in the state. That could in turn create an opening for one of the Republican candidates and avert a Democrat vs. Democrat contest in the fall. It’s the mirror image in the Orange County-based 40th District, which Democrats redrew to deliberately gather in as many GOP-leaning voters as possible. There, a titanic battle is brewing between two Republican incumbents, Young Kim and Ken Calvert, after Calvert decided to run here rather than in his 41st District, which Democrats made considerably bluer. However, no fewer than five Democrats are also on the ballot, as well as one independent. One Democrat, art dealer Esther Kim Varet, has raised almost $1.8 million and self-funded nearly $600,000 on top of that, so she could derail either Kim’s or Calvert’s hopes of making it to November. MO-06Republican Rep. Sam Graves, who was the subject of retirement rumors last cycle, has filed to run for a 14th term, but the Missouri Independent’s Jason Hancock reports that “behind the scenes, plenty of Republicans are still not convinced” he’ll be on the ballot. “All of this may turn out to be the usual retirement chatter, with bored insiders trying to will a story into existence,” Hancock cautions, but he notes that “there are already candidates eyeing a possible Graves retirement,” though he doesn’t specify any names. Graves, 62, has represented northern Missouri’s conservative 6th District since 2001, but his time as chair of the House Transportation Committee is about to come to an end. As Hancock points out, Graves received a waiver from fellow Republicans allowing him to serve a fourth term atop the committee, overriding the GOP’s normal three-term limit. At the time, Axios described the issuance of that waiver as a “surprise,” making it all but certain that Graves would not be able to obtain another one in the next Congress. NJ-11Former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way said no to a second bid for New Jersey’s 11th District shortly before Monday’s filing deadline, leaving progressive activist Analilia Mejia without any notable opposition in the June 2 Democratic primary. Last month, Mejia defeated a large field of opponents to win the Democratic nomination for the April 16 special election to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill. Mejia edged past former Rep. Tom Malinowski 29-28, while Way finished a distant third with 17%. Way was reportedly considering another run but said in a statement on Sunday that “this is not the right moment for another campaign.” Mejia is now the overwhelming favorite to win both the special and regular elections for Sherrill’s former seat. In both contests, her Republican opponent will be Randolph Mayor Joe Hathaway. An internal poll for Mejia taken earlier this month showed her with a 53-36 lead in the April election. TX-19Two-and-a-half weeks after Texas’ primaries, officials finally certified a runoff in the 19th Congressional District between Tom Sell, the founder of a prominent lobbying firm, and conservative activist Abraham Enriquez. Sell easily took the first spot with 40% of the vote, but Enriquez, who had the endorsement of Gov. Greg Abbott, emerged with only a narrow lead over businessman Matt Smith. In the end, Enriquez prevailed with 18.7% to 18.5 for Smith, a margin of 186 votes. The two Republicans, who are vying to succeed retiring Rep. Jodey Arrington, will now face off once more on May 26. Whoever wins the GOP nomination will have no trouble prevailing in the fall for this deep-red seat based around Lubbock. Mayors & County LeadersLos Angeles, CA MayorLos Angeles Mayor Karen Bass is in for a challenging campaign for a second term, according to a newly released independent poll of the June 2 nonpartisan primary. Bass, a longtime Democratic elected official, takes just 25% of the vote in UC Berkeley’s survey for the Los Angeles Times, which is well below the majority she’d need to avert a second round of voting on Nov. 3. City Councilmember Nithya Raman, another Democrat, holds a small 17-14 edge over Spencer Pratt, a former reality TV star who is the only notable Republican running to lead this loyally blue city, for the second-place spot. Housing activist Rae Huang and tech executive Adam Miller are behind with 8% and 5%, respectively. Nine other candidates are also on the ballot, but none of them have attracted much support or attention. While Bass is in first place in this poll, which is the first anyone has released since candidate filing closed last month, UC Berkeley finds a major warning sign for her. The school shows her with a negative 31-56 favorability rating, while her opponents are all much less well-known. Raman, whose 2020 win made her the first City Council member elected with the backing of the Democratic Socialists of America, launched her campaign to take on Bass on the final day of qualifying. Raman had endorsed Bass just weeks before she started running against her, but she pivoted to position herself as an alternative to an administration that hadn’t done enough for residents. Raman quickly emerged as the mayor’s main adversary, though not all of her old allies have consolidated behind her. The local DSA voted Saturday not to make an endorsement, with the Los Angeles Times noting that Raman “has been at odds with the group on some issues.” Voting Rights & Election LawNew YorkThe Supreme Court on Monday declined to take up a Republican challenge to a New York law moving many local elections to even-numbered years after the state’s top court upheld the law in October. The law does not affect all elections, however, since the timing of some races—such as those for county district attorney and New York City mayor—is specified in the state Constitution. Changing those dates would require a constitutional amendment, which must be approved by lawmakers twice before voters can weigh in. Poll Pile
Thank you so much for being a free subscriber to The Downballot! To support our work, we’d be grateful if you’d become a paid subscriber. |
Comments
Post a Comment