Obama Campaign Manager Tells Us Democrats Are Showing Signs of a 2006-Style Wave
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Obama Campaign Manager Tells Us Democrats Are Showing Signs of a 2006-Style Wave
Jim Messina tells Ben Meiselas the special-election numbers are beginning to look “wave-like”
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Former Obama campaign manager Jim Messina joined MeidasTouch co-founder Ben Meiselas to break down the political trend heading into the 2026 midterms: Democrats are dramatically overperforming across the country.
Messina, who managed former President Barack Obama’s successful 2012 reelection campaign and served as Obama’s deputy chief of staff for operations from 2009-2011, says Democrats have now outperformed expectations across more than 100 special elections by an average of 12.8 points. And he sees an important historical parallel.
While many observers are comparing the current environment to the Democratic wave of 2018, Messina believes 2006 may be the better comparison.
In 2006, Democrats outperformed George W. Bush’s numbers by roughly 13.5 points and ultimately captured both the House and Senate. Messina says today’s 12.8-point overperformance is strikingly similar.
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The numbers further down the ballot are just as notable. As Messina noted, Democrats have flipped 41 Republican-held state legislative seats in special elections since Trump returned to office, while Republicans have flipped zero Democratic seats.
Messina believes the driving issue is straightforward: everything feels too expensive.
“Expensive” may be the most important word of the election, he argued, as voters search for answers about the cost of gasoline, heating their homes, buying cars and simply getting through everyday life.
There are also signs of an enthusiasm gap. Messina pointed to recent Ipsos polling showing Democrats with a 20-point advantage among voters describing themselves as “very enthusiastic.”
“That starts to become wave-like material,” Messina told Ben.
Watch Ben’s full conversation with Jim Messina above as they dig into the numbers, the lessons of 2006, Trump’s growing political vulnerabilities, and what Democrats need to do to turn their special-election momentum into a midterm wave.
Enjoy these interviews? Subscribe to the Meidas+ Substack if you haven’t yet, and be sure to listen to the MeidasTouch Podcast for even more.
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I was so hopeful the day before the last election. Somehow on election day, I had a bad feeling that was justified.
I don’t want to hear about how we are going to have a blue wave and be disappointed again
If the Dems do take the house and senate, they’d better show they’re willing to do something with it. They can’t sit back and do nothing. They’re saying they can do better, so they’d better prove it. And they need to make efforts to build bi-partisanship over issues they care about. We have to end the us vs. them and unite the country again. Otherwise, Dems will lose the majority in 2028. That’s what usually happens. The country wants change, Dems get elected, we get more of the-same-as-before, and Dems get voted out. Dems don’t want to shake the tree and upset their big-money donors, but they can’t do that this time. They must lead the charge for big reforms starting with getting dark money out of politics and outlawing super-pacs.
They need to protect the American people from another d j fn t! Every single thing he is needs to be disqualifying! No PDFs, no felons, no rapists, no convictions what so ever!! Well maybe a traffic violation?? I mean, at this point a realtor has more fiduciary responsibility than the president! Sorry not sorry, we are taking the trash out for good! That means no more trash going in! Oh and don’t forget to codify ROE for women’s healthcare! If we are worried about the birth rate make sure parents can afford to procreate! Make sure families can bond properly after birth for mental health of the children! Come on DEMOCRATS we got this! 🔵
PASS the ERA. It is the route to fundamentally choosing equality for all!!
Oligarchs and AIPAC own so many of the “Democrat Establishment “ that even with a few new faces, nothing will happen. They will not shake the tree!
Patricia, we have fundamental value differences in the electorate. People who fracked their land and neighbors lost their water. Oklahoma has been so drained of oil, clean water turned to poison water, that clean drinking water is at risk and small earthquakes are common. For 250 years, women are chattel, black and brown folk are 'to be used for cheap labor, black men imprisoned for decades due to white human fear of the retribution we whites actually deserve!' And, how many poor European whites sailed to the US, to halt their own slave, vassal-serf relations? Then, killed Native Americans to just shy of genocide, and joined the black African slave trade, which besides natural resource exploitation is the foundation of US ' get on your knees, there goes a dollar bill!' Castine Maine historical society just publicized their research that in fact SLAVING was the big money maker here in 1700s. We must regionalize the US, allowing consequences, then seek accountability for the death making decisions of a Richy Rich and the Corporations. Red states have destroyed their landscapes, especially near minorities and now want to destroy all public lands and educated, Blue states, which have also succumbed to Corporate myths of personhood, since the late 1800s lie of a court decision enabling the fundamental shift from life being a central value to death by GREED and the mental illnesses of addiction to money and OCD to gold.
rump will need a state of emergency
but not for the reasons he thinks
FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT
In 2008, and now, I lived/live in two different states, in areas each about 70% Republican. What I noticed in 2008 in the prior state was the sudden disappearance of R bumper stickers from doctors' cars at the hospital where I worked. In this new area, what I noticed July 4 was about 1/4 of the US flags flying on homes than in years previous. Sometimes it's what you _don't_ see or hear that's the big clue.
Please realize how important it is to
VOTE
Let's get out in record numbers & STOP the steal
Fight Fight Fight
I will never be silenced!!!!!!
I know that the immediate challenge is to get elected, but beyond that, what will Democrats do if they get the kind of election results talked about here? Do they, can they play the long game?
What is always curious about the comments posted here is the lack of personal action.
WHAT HAVE YOU DONE?
There are groups who are registering VOTERS.
There are groups KNOCKING ON DOORS.
There are people making phone calls and sending letters and sending post cards.
ENVIRONMENTAL GROUPS have circulated opportunities to add comments to public policy initiative changes that effect the environment, banning cyanide bombs,
One of the activist substacks is SCOTT DWORKIN that allows you to speak out and send letters, but there are many others that provide YOU with the ability to speak out.
What I see in the comments are ARM CHAIR PATRIOTS pretending to be informed and mandating what other should do instead of accepting personal responsibility and actually DOING SOMETHING!
There are always lots of WHINERS on MTN, but no CONSTRUCTIVE ACTION.
There are several posters who have their own substack pages that could be effective tools to mobilize others. That's not what I'm seeing.