Morning Digest: As Iowa turns against Trump, Democrats look for gains at every level
Today at 12 PM ET, The Downballot’s publisher, David Nir, will join Lyzz Schwegler and Shawn Werner from States Win to discuss one of the most important—and overlooked—sets of races taking place next week: the battles for state legislatures. These elections are critical for so many reasons, but we’re focusing on a theme that’s particularly near and dear to us: the contests that will determine who’s in charge of redistricting for the remainder of the decade. As Stephen Wolf explained in a new special report, the redistricting wars are not over—they’ve just hit a lull. They’ll soon pick back up, and when they do, whoever controls the mapmaker’s pen will wield massive influence on the next batch of elections. You can set a calendar reminder for our livestream by clicking below: Apple | Google | Office 365 | Outlook | Outlook.com | Yahoo We look forward to seeing you later today! Morning Digest: As Iowa turns against Trump, Democrats look for gains at every levelHigh cancer rates are the latest problem facing the GOP
Leading OffIowaWith state Auditor Rob Sand favored to win Iowa’s governorship and state Rep. Josh Turek locked in a close race for the state’s open seat in the Senate, Democrats are trying to flip a host of other offices in a one-time swing state that finally seems to have grown tired of Donald Trump’s Republican Party. Sand’s razor-thin 50.1 to 49.8 reelection victory in 2022 was the only bright spot for Hawkeye State Democrats on a brutal night that saw Republicans win every other statewide post. One of the biggest shockers that night came in the race for attorney general when Republican Brenna Bird scored a 51-49 win over incumbent Tom Miller, whose 40 years in office made him the longest-serving attorney general in American history. That victory made Bird the first Republican to serve as Iowa’s top lawyer since Miller began his first term following the 1978 election. (Another Democrat served as attorney general in the four years he was out of office following his failed 1990 campaign for governor.) Bird, though, now faces former state Rep. Nate Willems in what looks to be another tight contest. Earlier this week, the Democratic Attorneys General Association released a poll showing the two deadlocked at 47 apiece heading into the final days of the election. The only other survey that’s surfaced since Labor Day was a September poll for the conservative group Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation that likewise found a tie at 40-all. Bird backed Trump ahead of the 2024 Iowa caucuses that kicked off his return to the White House, and at a rally in Sioux City last week, he called her up on stage and praised her for “[s]uch an early endorsement.” Willems, however, has argued that Bird is failing to look out for regular Iowans. The Democrat debuted a commercial last month focusing on the state’s high cancer rate, telling viewers, “[I]f Brenna Bird won’t prosecute the polluters giving us cancer, I will.” But this battle is by no means the only contest in Iowa—one of the few states where cancer rates are rising—where the issue could hurt Republicans. “Everyone knows someone with cancer,” an unidentified GOP consultant told the Washington Sun this week. “These voters are saying, ‘Holy crap, this is a big problem, and Republicans have been in charge for over a decade,’ so there’s no other place to point [a] finger.” Anger over cancer rates is just one of many problems facing Iowa’s long-dominant Republican Party. While Trump easily carried the state in all three of his campaigns, his unpopularity has voters taking another look at Democrats in races up and down the ballot. Gov. Kim Reynolds, who announced last year that she would not seek reelection, is also poised to leave office with underwater approval ratings. Not helping matters is the campaign of wealthy investor Zach Lahn, who won the GOP primary for governor in an upset only to immediately face extensive and ongoing scrutiny over how much time he spends in Kansas. At the outset of the general election, Sand launched ads highlighting the cancer crisis as part of his argument that the state can’t be led by a “part-time Iowan.” Voters seem to agree: An aggregate of polling compiled by FiftyPlusOne shows Sand with a 51-44 advantage as of Thursday. And though Sand is currently the only Democrat in statewide office, he could have company soon. Secretary of State Paul Pate faces Navy veteran Ryan Peterman in his quest for a fourth consecutive term as Iowa’s chief elections officer. An unanswered internal poll for Peterman in September found Pate ahead just 42-40. Meanwhile, state Treasurer Roby Smith, who unseated 10-term incumbent Michael Fitzgerald four years ago, is now going up against businessman John Norwood, a Democrat who unsuccessfully ran for state agriculture secretary in 2022. As for Mike Naig, the Republican who easily beat Norwood four years ago, he’s trying to fend off environmental activist Chris Jones this time. Finally, the race to succeed Sand as auditor pits Lt. Gov. Chris Cournoyer against Democrat Taylor Wettach, an attorney. And while it will be challenging for Democrats to flip either chamber of the legislature, they’ve already broken the GOP’s two-thirds supermajority in the Senate and could do the same in the House. Last year, Senate Republicans lost the supermajority they’d won in 2022 after a pair of Democrats, Mike Zimmer and Catelin Drey, scored massive upsets in separate special elections. That left Republicans with 33 seats—one shy of a supermajority. They now hold a 32-17 advantage, with one vacant seat last held by a Republican. Democrats could follow suit next week in the 100-member House, where they need to net just one seat to cost the GOP its supermajority. Republicans head into Tuesday with a 66-33 edge, with one GOP vacancy. Crucially, keeping Republicans under two-thirds in at least one chamber would allow Democrats to sustain any of Sand’s vetoes on their own. Republicans, though, are testing whether Zimmer and Drey can repeat their stunning victories. The pair hold two of the 25 Senate seats that are on the ballot this year, while the other half of the chamber will be up in 2028. The battle for control of state government takes place as both parties continue to direct massive sums to Iowa’s congressional contests. Turek is currently locked in a tight and expensive race against Republican Ashley Hinson for the Senate seat that GOP incumbent Joni Ernst is giving up after two terms. Democrat Lindsay James, meanwhile, is going up against Republican Joe Mitchell to replace Hinson in the 2nd Congressional District in the northeastern part of the state, while GOP Rep. Zach Nunn faces challenger Sarah Trone Garriott for the 3rd District around Des Moines. But Democrats are already on track to flip one House seat and break the GOP’s four-year monopoly on Iowa’s congressional delegation. Earlier this month, major Republican groups left Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks to fend for herself against Democrat Christina Bohannan in the 1st District in the state’s southeastern corner. Bohannan fell short against Miller-Meeks in both 2022 and 2024 in what were solid years for Republicans, but the state’s recent shift away from the GOP has helped her become the frontrunner heading into Tuesday. HousePA-10At least one TV station in Pennsylvania’s 10th District is taking down an ad from a GOP super PAC attacking Democrat Janelle Stelson while another isn’t airing it at all, Politico reports. The spot at issue, from the Donald Trump-funded No Going Back PAC, claims Stelson walked nude outdoors at her home in sight of a child. That accusation was made by a neighbor who also said she called police, but no charges were ever filed. According to abc27, the neighbor later said that “the child did not see anyone undressed.” Stelson’s campaign responded to a similar ad from her Republican opponent, Rep. Scott Perry, with a vigorous denial. “This false accusation is a pathetic, desperate attempt by Scott Perry to rescue his failing campaign, with easily disproven lies,” her campaign manager said in a statement. According to Politico, WHTM, the local ABC affiliate, said in an email that it was “pulling the ad in question out of rotation as soon as we can.” Meanwhile, NBC affiliate WGAL, where Stelson served as a news anchor from 1997 to 2023, said it was “not airing” the spot from No Going Back. Perry’s ad, though, remains beyond the reach of any takedown demands, due to a 92-year-old federal law that bars broadcasters from refusing to air ads from political candidates. Because of this law, a North Dakota TV and radio station successfully argued before the Supreme Court in 1959 that it could not be held liable for any defamatory statements made by candidates in content it was obliged to carry. Stations do not, however, have a similar legal obligation to air ads from third-party groups like super PACs. They therefore can be found liable for defamation as the “publisher” of such ads. When faced with possible lawsuits over third-party political ads, stations will sometimes choose not to run them rather than risk legal exposure. The race for Pennsylvania’s normally conservative-leaning 10th District, which includes the Harrisburg and York areas, has drawn intense outside spending. Two polls taken in October showed Stelson with narrow leads, while a third survey had the race tied. Poll PileAll polls must comply with The Downballot’s requirements.
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