Morning Digest: How Arizona Democrats can win a trifecta for the first time in 60 years
Morning Digest: How Arizona Democrats can win a trifecta for the first time in 60 yearsThe state House last changed hands in 1966.
Leading OffAZ LegislatureWith Gov. Katie Hobbs and other Arizona Democrats leading in statewide races, their party aims to flip both legislative chambers and win full control of state government for the first time in 60 years. Republicans, who have spent the last four years in conflict with Hobbs, are going into next week’s election with a 17-13 majority in the state Senate and a 33-27 advantage in the House. To prevail, Democrats need to net three seats in the upper chamber and four in the lower. However, a deadlock in either body would prevent either party from running things. That’s because there’s no way to break a tie—the new office of lieutenant governor doesn’t have authority over the Senate—so the parties would need to work out a power-sharing agreement. That’s precisely what happened after the 2000 elections produced an even split in the Senate. Republicans, however, regained the chamber two years later, and they’ve held it ever since. All 90 seats are on the ballot for new two-year terms, though the battlefield is narrowly focused. Each of Arizona’s 30 legislative districts elects one senator and two representatives, who represent the same territory, and the same eight districts are in play in both the Senate and House. The map, drawn by the state’s Independent Redistricting Commission rather than by lawmakers, reflects the political divide in what’s become a classic swing state. Donald Trump carried 17 out of the 30 districts as he defeated Kamala Harris 52-47 statewide, according to data from the Redistricting Data Hub uploaded to Dave’s Redistricting App. Democrat Ruben Gallego, however, also won 17 constituencies two years ago as he beat Kari Lake 50-48 in the race for the U.S. Senate. Four of those districts backed both Trump and Gallego, while none favored both Harris and Lake. Those Trump/Gallego districts are also home to the four Senate seats that the Arizona Capitol Times’ Jakob Thorington identifies as the key battlegrounds for control of the upper chamber—all of which are currently held by the GOP. One of those contests pits Republican Sen. Shawnna Bolick against Democrat Amelia Gallitano, a physician who helped bring a University of Arizona medical school campus to Phoenix. The 2nd Legislative District, based in North Phoenix, is some of the most competitive territory in the state: Trump and Gallego each performed about as well here as they did statewide, while Bolick won 51-47 two years ago. Bolick now argues that she deserves another term to keep serving as a “balance” to Hobbs, who enjoys a sizable lead in the polls over her Republican rival, U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs. The senator took to X on Thursday to write, “With a Democratic Governor, we need commonsense legislators who can work with both parties to get things done - - and be a check against control from one party.” There’s another major race underway next door in the 4th District between GOP Sen. Carine Werner and Aaron Lieberman, a former state representative who unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination for governor in 2022. (Lieberman dropped out before the primary and backed Hobbs.) Trump and Gallego each won 51% of the vote in this constituency, which includes parts of Phoenix and Scottsdale. Not far to the south in the Chandler area is the 13th District, where GOP Sen. J.D. Mesnard is termed out and Republican Rep. Julie Willoughby is running to replace him. But Willoughby needs to get past Democrat Kristie O’Brien, who has served as both an attorney and mediator. Trump won by a narrow 50-49 margin here, while Gallego prevailed by a larger 53-45 spread. Finally, there’s the 17th District around Tucson, another GOP-held open seat. Thorington writes that the redistricting commission considered this reliably red turf when it finalized Arizona’s new map half a decade ago, but that’s no longer the case. Trump won this district 51-48, while Gallego took it 50-48. Next week’s contest is a choice between Democrat Edgar Soto, a Marine veteran and vice president at Pima Community College, and Republican Christopher King, a local school board member who served in the Air Force. Beyond those four battlegrounds, each party is defending two potentially vulnerable seats in the upper chamber. The Democratic reach targets are a pair of districts that each favored Trump by around 10 points but only narrowly supported Lake. The battle for the 16th District, home to communities located between Phoenix and Tucson, pits GOP Sen. T.J. Shope against Elaine Aldrete, an elected member of her local fire district’s board. The race for the 27th District in the northwest Phoenix area, meanwhile, is between Republican incumbent Kevin Payne and Kyle Clayton, a school board president. At the same time, Democrats are defending two seats that Harris narrowly won but that Gallego took by double digits. Sen. Kiana Sears faces Republican Bridget Fitzgibbons, the owner of a medical spa, in the 9th District in Mesa. And in a rematch for the sprawling 23rd District in the southwestern corner of the state, Democratic Sen. Brian Fernandez is going up against Republican Michelle Altherr, whom he defeated 54-46 in 2024. All eight of these constituencies are also in play in the battle for the House, a body that has changed hands just once since Arizona became a state. That takeover happened in 1966 when Democrats, who had held the chamber since Arizona joined the Union in 1912, lost control to the state’s ascendant Republican Party. The Senate, which also fell to the GOP that year, would change hands a few more times during the 20th century, but House Democrats have yet to regain power. This year’s favorable political climate gives them the chance to secure their first majority since the Lyndon Johnson era, but the state’s rules for House races complicate things for both sides. Arizona allows each party to nominate up to two candidates for the general election, with all candidates facing off in a single contest. Voters may select up to two options, and the two contenders with the most support win. Both Democrats and Republicans, though, sometimes opt to field only one candidate in tough seats and encourage their supporters to vote just for that nominee. This tactic of single-shot voting, also known as bullet voting and plump voting, has helped candidates on both sides pull off upset wins on challenging terrain. One Democratic success story came in 2024 when Stephanie Simacek won a House seat in the 2nd District even as Bolick prevailed in the Senate race on the same turf. Now the incumbent, Simacek is again the only Democrat in her race. Her GOP opponents are fellow Rep. Justin Wilmeth, who narrowly edged out another Republican for second place two years ago, and Paul Carver, who appears to have been at the U.S. Capitol on the day of the Jan. 6 riots, according to AZ Family. The 2nd is one of just three districts in the state where House seats are split between Democrats and Republicans. In the other two, however—the swingy 17th and light-blue 23rd—both parties are fielding full slates rather than opting for a single-shot strategy. Democrats are also targeting both seats in the 4th and 13th, the two Trump-Gallego districts where Republicans currently hold both seats. Elsewhere, both parties are using single-shot strategies. Democrats are running one contender in the conservative 16th and 27th districts, while the GOP is doing the same in the left-leaning 9th. SenateFundraisingDemocratic candidates for the Senate and the House continue to dominate their Republican rivals in fundraising, according to new FEC disclosures compiled by The Downballot. During the first two weeks of October, Democrats collectively outraised Republicans $123 million to $39 million. They also spent more, $193 million to $130 million. Yet despite their higher spending, they went into the final stretch of the campaign with a $466 million to $300 million edge in cash on hand. The new data extends the pattern seen during the third quarter of the year, when Democrats likewise racked up an enormous financial advantage. Republicans have sought to make up the gap with heavy super PAC spending, but Democrats continue to benefit from the significantly lower ad rates available to candidates. HouseIN-05Indiana Rep. Victoria Spartz has a history of expressing her distaste for serving in Congress—and voters might finally be ready to solve that problem for her. Spartz is the latest House Republican in a deep-red district to find herself unexpectedly in need of outside help. No Going Back, a super PAC funded by Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc., just began an ad buy on her behalf that’s worth at least $470,000, according to AdImpact data shared by Axios’ Andrew Solender. Until now, third-party GOP groups were content to let Spartz fend for herself. But her Democratic opponent, state Sen. J.D. Ford, has received a considerable boost from his allies. Five different organizations have combined to spend about $3.6 million on his behalf, with Invest In Tomorrow, a super PAC funded by wealthy renewable energy investors, putting in $2 million. Punchbowl News additionally reported Monday morning that the House Majority PAC is deploying $380,000 for a late ad campaign against Spartz. This spending, HMP’s first in this contest, is not yet reflected in the FEC’s data. Ford has also outraised Spartz 2-to-1 since the start of July, taking in $823,000 through mid-October compared to $407,000 for the incumbent. Since the start of the campaign, however, she’s outspent her opponent roughly $1.4 million to $1 million. But Spartz seemed to acknowledge that she faces a surprisingly tough race when she loaned her campaign $450,000 at the end of September. And that’s not the only sign the contest might be competitive. The House Majority PAC recently released a survey conducted by Expedition Strategies that found the congresswoman leading just 48-47 at the start of October. Republicans haven’t responded with any contrary numbers. Spartz should never have found herself in this position, though. After her first victory in 2020, when she won the open 5th District by a narrow 50-46 margin, Republicans made her seat much redder. In that same election, Trump carried the 5th, which is based in the northern Indianapolis suburbs, by just a 50-48 margin. But after the GOP got done gerrymandering, Trump’s margin ballooned to 57-41. That protected Spartz from serious Democratic challenges—but not from herself. The erratic congresswoman has frequently feuded with GOP leaders in Washington and vexed voters at home. Heading into the 2024 elections, Spartz talked about running for the Senate, announced her retirement from Congress, threatened to resign her seat, and then ultimately ran for reelection. The incumbent ended up pulling off an underwhelming 39-33 primary victory over Chuck Goodrich, a wealthy state representative who was one of eight challengers running for what they’d previously thought would be an open seat. In the end, Spartz won a third term comfortably, and this cycle, she didn’t flirt with quitting. Still, she turned in a desultory 60-40 win in this year’s primary against an opponent who didn’t spend a penny. It may have been a sign that negative feelings over Spartz’s capricious behavior still linger—and could affect next week’s vote. Poll PileAll polls must comply with The Downballot’s requirements.
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