Big Numbers, Hopes & Fears
The collapse of the Republican Party has many contributors, but primarily it can be attributed to one person. The state of our economy is complicated and involves multitudes, but again, its main cause comes down to one man. Tariffs? With almost all of them, the same guy is to blame. The country is bogged down in a seemingly never-ending war. America’s standing around the world is somewhere between ridiculed and pitied. Longtime allies are being shunned, while Russia is welcomed like a big brother. Add to the list corruption so deep it’s reached bedrock. That one person responsible for much of this wants you to pretend he is on the ballot Tuesday. Message received. The result may not be what the messenger hoped for. Voters in record numbers have already cast ballots nationwide. You can forget about the polls at this point. We will know the real results soon enough. But there’s no denying voters are enthused and engaged, most likely because of all of the above. We have long written that if voters want to send a message, they need to show up, and they are. An unusual number of books will probably be written about the 2026 midterm elections. Either because a “blue tsunami” hit Washington or because it didn’t. It will either be a rebuke of Donald Trump’s authoritarian destruction of much of our democracy or people’s willingness to give him yet another chance. But one unassailable fact about this critical midterm is that Americans are voting in huge numbers. During the 2022 midterms, 45.9 million Americans voted early. This year, that number has jumped 23% to more than 57.5 million and counting, according to the University of Florida Election Lab. While that number is short of most presidential elections, it is a record for a midterm. And a good thing for democracy. States with competitive Senate and gubernatorial races have seen the biggest increases — states like Texas, Maine, Kansas, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Growth in some demographic blocs in those states is driving the uptick. In Texas, Hispanic turnout has surged 87%, according to NBC News. Vanessa Cárdenas, who runs America’s Voice, a national immigrant advocacy group, explained what many Hispanics in Texas have been sensing. “It’s not going to be just a ripple. It’s going to be a sea change. They’re feeling that they have a target on their back because of how they look and the language they speak,” she told NBC. As is well documented, Trump doesn’t like it when people vote. He thinks he and his MAGA brethren have a better shot of holding on to power when fewer people cast ballots. He has said, on more than one occasion, that he doesn’t think we even need to hold future elections. In the months prior to the midterms, Trump has tried and failed to keep people from the polls. He has attempted to suppress voting, make it harder to vote, and throw American citizens off voter rolls. He has failed at almost every turn, going one-for-29 in suits to prevent or curb voting. After his executive orders were blocked and he was unable to push his voter suppression legislation through Congress, Trump, along with his lapdog attorney general Todd Blanche, are concocting increasingly nefarious means to the same end. The now-misnamed Department of Justice and the Department of Homeland Security threatened California election officials with criminal prosecution if they didn’t comply with a request to halt the processing of 20,000 ballots. The administration claims the ballots were cast by ineligible voters. On Friday, U.S. District Judge Trina Thompson issued a temporary restraining order blocking DOJ and DHS. “In the lead-up to the election, high-ranking DOJ and DHS officials have engaged in a campaign to intimidate, threaten, and coerce state and local officials and employees who are engaged in administering the ongoing midterm 2026 election,” Judge Thompson wrote in her ruling. “[T]heir actions are likely to have the effect of interfering with election administration and disenfranchising lawful voters,” she continued. Trump’s attempt to appeal the ruling to the Supreme Court failed on Monday. Similar to what was attempted in California, in Washington state the DOJ formally asked Secretary of State Steve Hobbs to withhold more than 400 ballots, claiming voters may not be eligible. While Hobbs is reviewing the request, he noted that one of the records DOJ provided was from 1994. “The timing of this request — one week before the General Election — is no doubt intended to cast unfounded suspicion on the results,” he said in a statement. The administration was just handed another court defeat in Alaska. U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason dismissed a Trump administration lawsuit seeking to prohibit the state from certifying any winner in its Senate race other than the Republican. The suit claims voters might be confused because there are two Dan Sullivans on the ballot: the Republican incumbent, who is identified as such, and a third-party candidate. It would be a mistake to believe that just because these attempts failed, Trump will graciously accept the results of any midterm election he doesn’t like. First of all, Trump does nothing graciously, and he will fight dirty to keep as many lawfully elected Democrats as possible from taking the oath of office. What about impounding votes in certain key places? Even declaring a “national emergency” to string out weeks-long vote recounting? Unfortunately, nothing can be ruled out. As frustrating as it is, patience is necessary in these cases. The courts have upheld the rule of law when it comes to Trump and election interference almost 100% of the time. Still, it is outrageous and dangerous for our once-respected Department of Justice to be acting on Trump’s behalf, looking for multiple ways to subvert the will of voters and steal elections. It is apparent Trump would rather have whatever fights are to come after the midterms, not before. He spent the last weekend prior to an election that will have profound effects on the rest of his presidency and his legacy, mostly behind a screen, holding tele-rallies — an odd choice for someone who claims he can command any room he enters. When not rallying by remote, the president was celebrating Halloween at a flashy, jungle-themed party at his Mar-a-Lago estate. Because he continues to be tone-deaf to the plight of so many Americans, including millions of his own supporters, he bragged about the attendees to reporters. “Look at all my rich members. They spent all day getting ready. Look at these guys… These are the biggest guys on Wall Street.” If his weekend behavior wasn’t a head-scratcher, his Monday schedule certainly was. Trump spent his afternoon at the supposedly finished Reflecting Pool in Washington, D.C. He was not making a case for Republicans, but making the case for his unquenchably self-indulgent need to reimagine the nation’s capital his way. Remember when Trump wanted to turn the pool water blue? It was supposed to be a quick renovation costing about a million dollars. Months and many contractors later the final cost is closer to 16 times that. If he wanted to amplify the dysfunction of this administration, mission accomplished. As Republicans, scared of losing power, realize they hitched their wagon to a dangerous, xenophobic fearmongerer, Trump must contend with what will likely be the loss of one, if not both, houses of Congress and the rubber stamp he has enjoyed for two years. His already unhinged and desperate behavior may become more so as he latches on to the last vestiges of his reign. We are already the laughingstock of the world, led by a man so marginalized that we go to bed fearing what we might wake up to. How much, if at all, he is to be rebuked and restrained will become clear in 24 hours or less. However you feel about all of this, please vote. It is no cliché to say: your vote is the red, beating heart of democracy. Thank you for voting.
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