Morning Digest: Louisiana may not have heard the last of Jamie Davis After a shockingly close Senate loss, the Democrat is now eyeing Gov. Jeff Landry David Nir and Jeff Singer Nov 6 Louisiana Democrat Jamie Davis (credit: Jamie Davis Facebook) Leading Off Louisiana We may not have seen the last of Jamie Davis. After coming shockingly close to winning Tuesday’s U.S. Senate race, the Louisiana Democrat is now talking about challenging the state’s Republican governor next year. “Jeff Landry, you’re on notice, buddy,” Davis declared at his election night party. He confirmed to WAFB later that evening that he was interested in running against Landry, though he suggested he might be open to backing another candidate instead. Davis, a farmer and former local elected official in rural Tensas Parish in northeastern Louisiana, delivered those remarks after losing to Republican Rep. Julia Letlow by just a 51-49 margin in a state Donald Trump carried 60-38 just two years ago. But Letlow’s narrow escape, which came after GOP groups spent more than $1 million in a last-ditch rescue mission during the final week of the race, was by no means an outlier on a wretched night for Republicans from coast to coast. The Democratic surge was especially strong in the South, where Republicans struggled to hold—or outright lost—seats that had seemed safe before the polls closed. One source of the GOP’s troubles was amped-up turnout among Black voters in what Democratic pollster Terrance Woodbury dubbed the “Blacklash.” The impact was especially intense in Louisiana, where Landry and the GOP-controlled legislature implemented a new congressional map this spring that transformed the 6th Congressional District from a predominantly Black—and safely Democratic—constituency into a majority-white and Republican-leaning seat. According to the New York Times, African Americans made up 30% of the state’s electorate this year, an increase from 27% two years ago. (Black voters represent 31% of registered voters, according to the secretary of state.) The white share, meanwhile, declined from 68% to 64%. Though Davis, who would have been the first Black person elected statewide since Reconstruction, fell just short, a fired-up Black electorate could make an even bigger difference when the state holds runoffs in two conservative congressional districts on Dec. 12—a date when turnout will almost certainly be much lower than it was on Tuesday. The contests for the open 5th and 6th congressional districts are going into overtime because Landry canceled the state’s May House primaries to give the GOP time to pass its new gerrymandered map. Instead, contenders for each of the state’s six districts faced off for the first time this week on a single ballot, with candidates needing to earn a majority to avert a second round of voting. Unsurprisingly, no one came close to hitting that threshold in the packed races for either the 5th District, which Letlow gave up to run for the Senate, or the 6th, where Democratic Rep. Cleo Fields did not seek reelection after the GOP overhauled his seat. (Fields faces an independent on Dec. 12 in a special election for the district he used to hold in the state Senate.) The runoff in the 5th is a choice between two state representatives: Democrat Pat Moore, who took first with 18%, and Gabe Firment, who finished just ahead of two fellow Republicans with 17%. The full results, though, underscore how conservative this constituency is. Firment and the other five Republicans took a combined 63% of the vote, while just 37% preferred Moore or the other two Democrats. Those numbers are only a small shift from Trump’s 66-32 win in the new 5th. The contest for the 6th, likewise, pits Democrat Chauna Banks, a former member of the legislative body for populous East Baton Rouge Parish, against Republican state Sen. Blake Miguez. Each finalist took about 19%, but the six Republicans outpolled the three Democrats 57% to 41%. (The balance went to a Libertarian.) Trump would have carried this version of the 6th by a 66-32 spread, so Banks needs a hefty overperformance next month to have a shot at holding the district. Miguez, though, has his own challenges as he recalibrates after a nasty intraparty battle. Ahead of Tuesday’s elections, allies of fellow state Sen. Rick Edmonds aired ads highlighting a 2007 accusation of rape made by a former girlfriend of Miguez. The Atlantic, which first reported the story in March, wrote that the woman did not press charges against Miguez, whose campaign called the allegations “categorically false.” In that same spot, Edmonds’ backers accused Miguez of having “shot a dog and laughed,” a story reported last year by the Daily Mail, a conservative British tabloid. Edmonds himself also portrayed Miguez, whose legislative district in the Acadiana region is nowhere near the Baton Rouge-area constituency he wants to represent in Congress, as an outsider. But Miguez, who received extensive support from the hardline Club for Growth, still edged out Edmonds 19.2 to 18.8 for the crucial second runoff spot, and he remains the frontrunner in next month’s runoff. (Banks finished in first with 19.4% of the vote.) Moore and Banks, who would each be the first Black woman to represent Louisiana in Congress, are aiming for upsets as Democrats have also begun looking ahead to next year’s race against Landry. There had been some speculation that former Gov. John Bel Edwards, who served from 2016 through 2024, might challenge his successor. Voters, however, approved a constitutional amendment on Tuesday limiting governors to two lifetime terms instead of two consecutive terms. Despite its passage, legal experts disagree on whether the amendment applies to Edwards or Republican Bobby Jindal, the state’s only other living former governor, because it wasn’t in effect during their previous service. Edwards, though, would likely face a legal challenge if he ran again. (Jindal, who was deeply unpopular when he left office more than a decade ago, has shown no interest in a comeback.) Davis’ impressive showing this week, however, could give Democrats a strong standard-bearer for another challenging race. The state’s candidate filing deadline isn’t until Aug. 5 of next year, so it may be some time before the field fully takes shape. Candidates for governor still compete under the state’s old all-party primary system rather than in party primaries. The first round will take place on Oct. 9, while a runoff would follow six weeks later on Nov. 20. The Downballot The Downballot podcast live: Holy crap! So much is still unfolding from Tuesday’s extraordinary election—and our heads are still spinning—that we decided we had to do this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast live… Listen now 2 days ago · 84 likes · 9 comments · David Nir and David Beard Late Calls Stay on top of every uncalled race by bookmarking our continually updated tracker. AR-02: Republican Rep. French Hill survived a serious scare, turning back Democrat Chris Jones by just a 51-49 margin in Arkansas’ conservative 2nd District in the Little Rock area. AZ-01: Democrat Amish Shah flipped Arizona’s swingy 1st District in the Phoenix and Scottsdale area, a seat that had stayed just out of reach for Democrats the three previous election cycles. Shah, who lost to outgoing Republican Rep. David Schweikert 52-48 in 2024, this time was leading Republican Jay Feely by a wider 52-45 margin when the AP called the race. AZ-06: Democrat JoAnna Mendoza picked up another Arizona swing seat by unseating Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani, who had represented the Tucson-area 6th District for two terms. Mendoza was up 53-45 when the AP called the race. CO-05: Democrat Jessica Killin just ousted freshman GOP Rep. Jeff Crank in Colorado’s 5th District, a conservative bastion that had never gone blue since it first sprang into being following the 1970 census. Killin was leading 51-46 at the time of the AP’s call. Until this cycle, Democrats had never made a serious play for the 5th District, which has always been centered around Colorado Springs—a city that became well-known as the headquarters of the prominent evangelical group Focus on the Family. But readers of The Downballot first learned of Killin’s candidacy, and why it was one to take seriously, when we profiled the race in June of last year. FL-13: Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna has hung on by the narrowest of margins, defeating Democrat Leela Gray 49.5 to 48.7 in Florida’s 13th District based in St. Petersburg. Luna likely would have lost had Republicans not further gerrymandered Florida’s map this year, which moved her district about 1.5 points to the right. ME-02: Democrat Matt Dunlap has conceded to Republican Paul LePage in the race for northern Maine’s 2nd District. With nearly all votes tallied, LePage led Dunlap 49.9 to 48.3. Because LePage is short of a majority, the secretary of state’s office announced that ranked-choice tabulations would proceed on Monday, but Dunlap said in a statement that he does not believe the outcome will change. With his victory, LePage, a former two-term governor, has notched the only flip for House Republicans in a district that the GOP did not recently gerrymander. He will also represent the bluest district held by a Republican. The seat’s outgoing occupant, Rep. Jared Golden, previously had the distinction of representing the reddest district held by a Democrat. NC-14: Democrat Lakesha Womack defeated freshman Republican Rep. Tim Moore, who for a decade served as the powerful speaker of North Carolina’s state House, in one of the midterms’ most stunning results. Moore seemed to have little to fear from Womack, a first-time candidate who raised only around $50,000, and acted accordingly. The congressman told WUNC just before the election that he was “in a seat that’s not considered competitive.” But Womack’s win in the 14th District, which includes part of Charlotte and conservative areas to the west, makes her one of at least five Democrats to flip a GOP-held House seat in a state Republicans had gerrymandered to maximum advantage. Jamie Ager’s victory in the open 11th District came as little surprise after Republicans triaged the seat, but Cyril Jefferson delivered a massive shocker when he took down Rep. Addison McDowell in the 6th District. Paul Barringer did the same to Rep. Brad Knott in the 13th, but the biggest blow of all was delivered in the 9th by Richard Ojeda, a former state senator in West Virginia who knocked off Rep. Richard Hudson, the chair of the NRCC. And the hits could keep on coming. Democrat Chuck Hubbard has a 99-vote edge over Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx in the 5th District, though major media outlets haven’t called the race. The remaining four Republicans in the state’s House delegation—Greg Murphy, David Rouzer, Mark Harris, and Pat Harrigan—are all sitting on precarious leads, and none of their races have been called either. NY-02: Republican Rep. Andrew Garbarino turned back Democrat Patrick Halpin in an unexpectedly close race for New York’s 2nd District on Long Island. OH-10: Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker unseated Republican Rep. Mike Turner, who won each of his 12 terms by double digits, in Ohio’s 10th District in the Dayton area. Knickerbocker’s win over Turner, who had repeatedly frustrated well-funded challengers, means Democrats will control eight of the state’s 15 congressional districts despite an extreme GOP gerrymander. TN-07: Republican Rep. Matt Van Epps narrowly beat Democrat Darden Copeland in Tennessee’s 7th District in yet another surprisingly weak showing for a seemingly secure Republican. UT-02: Republican Rep. Blake Moore held off Democrat Peter Crosby in Utah’s 2nd District. With most votes counted, Moore led 50-42, a far cry from the 63-32 blowout he notched two years ago in a district that was considerably less conservative. VA-05: Republican Rep. John McGuire won a tight race against Tom Perriello, a Democrat who represented a previous incarnation of Virginia’s 5th District from 2009 to 2011. Los Angeles, CA Mayor: Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman unseated Mayor Karen Bass, a fellow Democrat, in an officially nonpartisan race. Bass lost to Raman, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, after facing intense criticism for her handling of the devastating 2025 wildfires and the long rebuilding process. Legislatures Democrats racked up extraordinary victories at the state level on Tuesday as they flipped nearly 600 Republican-held seats in state legislatures across the country. With those flips, they won new majorities in a dozen legislative chambers and took full control of state government in five states. They also broke many GOP supermajorities and captured some of their own. Below, we highlight all of the most notable developments. New Trifectas Arizona: For the first time since 1966, Arizona Democrats will enjoy complete control of state government—the proverbial trifecta—after winning both chambers of the legislature while Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs secured a second term in a landslide. Notably, Democrats had never flipped the House since Arizona achieved statehood in 1912. Michigan: Democrats in Michigan regained the trifecta they lost two years ago by retaking the state House and expanding their majority in the state Senate. Democrat Jocelyn Benson also won the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer by double digits. Minnesota: Like in Michigan, Minnesota Democrats won back the state House, which fell into a tie following the 2024 elections, and increased their margin in the closely divided state Senate. Democrat Amy Klobuchar easily prevailed in the race to succeed Gov. Tim Walz, who decided not to seek a third term. Pennsylvania: Democrats in Pennsylvania managed to flip the state Senate despite a difficult map while also padding their majority in the state House, which for years had been on a razor’s edge. With Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro’s 22-point obliteration of his Republican opponent, Democrats will have their first trifecta since 1994. Wisconsin: Wisconsin Democrats finally exhaled after winning majorities in both chambers of the legislature—something that only became possible after the state Supreme Court replaced GOP gerrymanders with maps that didn’t favor either party before the 2024 elections. Thanks to Democrat David Crowley’s surprisingly comfortable 8-point victory in the governor’s race, Democrats will now control state government for the first time since 2010. Chamber Flips GA House: In one of three extraordinary flips in the South that came despite extreme Republican gerrymanders, Georgia Democrats won the state House for the first time since the GOP’s 2004 takeover—a time when the party looked very different. They also made gains in the state Senate, though Republicans remain in charge. NC House: Democrats not only flipped the North Carolina House in epic fashion, but they also came close to notching a three-fifths supermajority—again, running on maps that Republicans had gerrymandered extensively. They picked up seats in the state Senate, too, but appear to have fallen just one seat shy of forcing a tie. It’s the first time Democrats have won the House since the 2010 Republican wave. New Hampshire: Democrats recaptured both chambers of New Hampshire’s notoriously swingy legislature, which they last won in 2018, taking a two-thirds supermajority in the state House and falling one seat short of that mark in the state Senate. In addition, they appear to have swept all five seats on the state’s Executive Council, a unique body that has veto power over state spending and gubernatorial appointments. TX House: Texas Democrats capped off an astonishing night by picking up the state House despite very unfavorable maps, putting them in control for the first time since 2002. Gains were more limited in the Senate, where only half of all seats were up. Supermajorities Won and Lost In addition to the North Carolina Senate and New Hampshire Senate mentioned above, Republicans lost supermajorities in another 10 chambers: Florida House Indiana House Iowa House Kansas House Missouri House and Senate Nebraska Senate Ohio House South Carolina House Utah House The GOP’s setbacks in Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio are some of the most consequential, as all three states will have Democratic governors, who can now govern knowing that their vetoes will be upheld. In addition, Democrats now have enough seats in the Nebraska Senate to sustain filibusters on their own. Meanwhile, Democrats won new supermajorities in nine more chambers, on top of the New Hampshire House: Colorado House and Senate Delaware House Maine Senate Nevada Assembly New Mexico House New York Senate Vermont House and Senate In Colorado, Democrats will now be able to refer constitutional amendments to the ballot without Republican votes, which would allow them to ask voters to bypass the state’s independent redistricting commission and approve a new congressional map. And in Vermont, Democrats will once again be able to override vetoes by Republican Gov. Phil Scott, who won a sixth two-year term by a narrow margin. Thank you so much for being a paid subscriber to The Downballot! If you’d like to further support our work, you can donate on our ActBlue page. JUST A FEW COMMENTS:  Some of the non-milestone state legislative numbers are also pretty eye-popping. The Connecticut senate went from 25-11 to 33-3 (!), with only about 7,000 votes preventing the GOP from complete oblivion. The Rhode Island senate is now a similarly comical 36-2. Ahhh, getting Foxx, Boebert and etc out of the House, how sweet. I saw a map of voting trends across the US, and Maine was an outlier, moving primarily toward Rs. I'm curious about what happened in Maine, and disappointed Dunlap lost, who I liked alot. But very relieved Troy won. Kudos to Anderson Clayton, NC Dem chair, who I have not seen mentioned, on the fantastic NC results. Any chance of cloning Anderson for other states? And last, I wonder about the difficulty of getting over that proverbial 50% in the close states. I don't think this solely explains it, but Maine is the oldest state in the country and the biggest shifts were from young voters. It might have been different if Maine had locked down its Democratic Senate candidate earlier than it did, as the top races help the downballot races. The Platner mess didn't help. I feel very confident going into 2028. Will there be higher turnout due to it being a presidential year? Yes. Will Trump still be in office? Also yes. If 2028 is anything like Tuesday, I have a feeling we'll sweep ALL the statewide races in North Carolina by uncontestable margins: U.S. Senate, governor, lieutenant governor, superintendent, labor commissioner, state auditor, and all the judicial races (three GOP held seats on the NC Supreme Court, eight on the Circuit Court of Appeals). We might even oust that agricultural commissioner Steve Troxler as well.