Morning Digest, sponsored by Civitech: A trio of governors could face tough opposition from their own party
Morning Digest, sponsored by Civitech: A trio of governors could face tough opposition from their own partyThe 2026 elections are barely over, but the 2028 cycle is already getting underway
Leading OffWV-Gov, IN-Gov, WA-GovThree governors who are up for reelection in 2028—Republican Patrick Morrisey of West Virginia, Republican Mike Braun of Indiana, and Democrat Bob Ferguson of Washington—have already learned they could face serious intraparty opposition as they seek a second term. Republican Sen. Jim Justice said just before Labor Day that he was considering challenging Morrisey, who was elected to replace Justice as the state’s chief executive in 2024. Justice reaffirmed his interest on Tuesday, telling Semafor, “[W]e’ll make a decision soon.”
Justice insisted to the site that his duties as a senator are “really important, and I don’t want us to have the cart in a ditch and say, ‘oh boy, I want out of here.’” But he may still want to escape the giant hole voters dug for the Senate GOP last week. In a separate interview with the conservative Washington Examiner, he said of his party’s prospects for retaking the chamber, “You can forget 2028. Absolutely.” Justice’s own seat isn’t scheduled to be on the ballot again until 2030, but he might be long gone by then. Hoppy Kercheval wrote in a column that ran Thursday in MetroNews that Justice appears ready to launch a campaign for governor. Kercheval, however, cautioned that “[a]s always with Justice, he could change his mind tomorrow.” The Washington Sun reported later that day that the Senate Select Committee on Ethics issued a Public Letter of Admonition to Justice, a coal and real estate magnate, earlier in the week for failing to file his annual financial disclosure form until weeks after the deadline passed for his second and final extension. “In the 47 years since the governing statute was enacted, the Committee has no record of any other Member failing to file a timely annual financial disclosure report,” the letter said. “The public must feel confident that Members never place personal financial interests ahead of the best interests of the United States. Your actions failed to uphold that standard, resulting in harm to the public trust and confidence in the United States Senate and a violation of federal law.” Justice was first elected governor in 2016 as a Democrat before switching parties the next year. He decisively won a second term in 2020 and was easily elected to replace retiring Sen. Joe Manchin in 2024 despite years of negative headlines surrounding his businesses and massive debt. Forbes dubbed him “The Deadbeat Billionaire” in a 2019 article that ran two years before the magazine reported he was no longer even a billionaire. Justice again made news a few months ago when he and his family transferred majority ownership of the famed Greenbrier Resort to a financial firm, a deal that saved the hotel from receivership. Morrisey, who was elected governor in 2024, celebrated the story with a statement saying, “I am hopeful that the new controlling owner will bring much needed financial stability to the iconic Greenbrier resort.” Justice responded to that dig by posting on X, “Patrick seems awfully eager to take shots at people who actually take risks, build businesses and create jobs in West Virginia.” Morrisey shot back, “I wish you the best, but you can’t blame me or anyone else for your financial mismanagement in losing The Greenbrier.” Morrisey, who has spent the first half of his term feuding with his fellow Republicans in the state legislature, could still face a primary challenge even if Justice, 75, decides to stay in the Senate. State Treasurer Larry Pack could also enter the race, though TJ Meadows wrote in a MetroNews column in August that Pack said he wouldn’t run if Justice does. The Parkersburg News and Sentinel added that Secretary of State Kris Warner is “rumored” to be interested. Morrisey, though, has one important ally. David McIntosh, the head of the hardline Club for Growth, told Meadows in August, “The Club for Growth spent $13.1 million in support of conservative Governor Patrick Morrisey in his first run for Governor. And if he is challenged for reelection, we are prepared to do what it takes to help him win again.” While Republicans are favored to keep the governorship no matter what happens in the GOP primary, Kercheval writes that “Democratic interest has increased” as a result of last week’s elections. Republicans maintained their huge majorities in both chambers of the legislature, but Democrats are encouraged by their gains. Manchin, who switched his party affiliation from Democratic to independent during his final months in the Senate in 2024, has not quite ruled out running for his old job as governor. But while Manchin, 79, told West Virginia’s News in September that he would “love nothing better than to be back in West Virginia and be governor,” he added, “There is so much new talent out there.” Over in Indiana, Braun may have to fend off an old intraparty rival to keep his job leading the state. Attorney General Todd Rokita is considering opposing Braun, according to unnamed sources who spoke with IndyPolitics this week. That piece was published one day after Rokita took to X to accuse Braun of failing to punish “educators and school administrators [who] publicly celebrated or justified” the killing of Charlie Kirk. Rokita continued, “@GovBraun, more than a year has passed. When will your administration act?” A spokesperson for the attorney general, however, sought to tamp down speculation that the post previewed a primary challenge. As the Indianapolis Star put it, the aide “cautioned against reading into a social media post, saying if Rokita were planning to run against Braun, he would be more direct about it.” The two first faced off in 2018 in the primary for the right to take on Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly. Braun, a wealthy former state representative, took advantage of an intense battle between Rokita and Luke Messer, who was Rokita’s colleague in the U.S. House at the time, to capture the GOP nod. Braun went on to unseat Donnelly that fall, and he later waged a successful campaign for governor in 2024. Republicans have controlled the governorship since winning it back in the 2004 election, but like their colleagues across the country, Hoosier State Democrats have reason to be buoyant after the midterms. Most notably, Beau Bayh was elected secretary of state and Jessica Bailey won the office of comptroller, making them the first two Democrats to win statewide since 2012. Democrats also flipped a huge number of seats in the legislature. Finally, there’s Ferguson, whose election as governor in Washington coincided with fellow Democrat Chris Reykdal securing his third term as superintendent of public instruction. Reykdal announced Monday he wouldn’t run for reelection two years from now but would instead “decide whether to run for a different statewide office in 2028, seek federal office, or walk away from elective office altogether.” The Washington Observer subsequently reported that Reykdal is interested in running from the left against Ferguson, who has often come into conflict with more progressive members of the legislature. Ferguson reacted to the news of Reykdal’s decision not to seek a fourth term with a video saying it was “really past due for a change.” The governor continued, “Test scores for students are just really mediocre, and Washington is not mediocre.” Washington, unlike West Virginia and Indiana, will not hold a traditional party primary in 2028. Instead, all candidates will face off on a single primary ballot, and the top two contenders, regardless of party, will advance to the general election. Republicans last won the governorship in 1980, and last week’s results, which saw Democrats secure a supermajority in the state House, didn’t give them much reason to hope for a quick turnaround. State Rep. Jim Walsh, who also serves as state GOP chair, did say he was “looking at” the race back in June on a conservative radio show. That, however, was before anyone knew just how bad things were about to get for Republicans, and Walsh doesn’t appear to have revisited the topic yet. Late Calls & Uncalled RacesStay on top of every uncalled race by bookmarking The Downballot’s continually updated tracker. AK-Gov: Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins has won the race for Alaska governor, and he will be the first Democrat to hold the post since Tony Knowles left office in 2002. Kreiss-Tomkins, who defeated three Republicans, will replace term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy, a Republican hardliner. Kreiss-Tomkins, a former member of the state House, leads Republican Bernadette Wilson 50.2 to 28.7 as of Thursday evening, while two other Republicans take the balance. CNN estimates that 88% of the vote has been tabulated, and most of the remaining ballots are in Democratic-leaning areas. Ranked-choice tabulations would only be required if no candidate takes a majority of first-choice preferences. Each chamber of Alaska’s legislature is run by a cross-party coalition that includes every Democrat and independent as well as some Republicans, and this state of affairs is set to continue. Kreiss-Tomkins himself was widely credited as one of the architects of a previous incarnation of this alliance, which wrested control of the House away from conservative Republicans. Kreiss-Tomkins’ victory in what was the final uncalled gubernatorial election in the country means that Democrats flipped a total of six governor’s offices last week, while Republicans picked up none. Democratic chief executives will run 30 of the 50 states. KS-Gov: Democrat Cindy Holscher has won the race for governor of Kansas, handing her party a record-breaking victory in this historically Republican state. Holscher, a member of the state Senate, scored a 50.3 to 49.7 victory over Republican Ty Masterson, the chamber’s president, in the race to succeed termed-out Gov. Laura Kelly. It’s the first time that either party has won three straight times since Kansas switched from two-year to four-year terms in 1974. Holscher, whose ardent opposition to the growth of data centers helped propel her to a primary upset and subsequent general election victory, capped a historically strong year for Kansas Democrats. Adam Hamilton’s victory against Sen. Roger Marshall will make him the first Democrat to win an election for the Senate in Kansas since 1932, while Democrat Chris Mann’s defeat of Attorney General Kris Kobach gives Democrats control of this powerful office for the first time in 16 years. And while Republicans will still control both chambers of the legislature, Democrats broke their two-thirds supermajority in the state House. (The state Senate, where Republicans still have a supermajority, is only on the ballot in presidential years.) The GOP was often able to implement its priorities by overriding Kelly’s vetoes, but Holscher will enter office with a stronger hand. GovernorsMS-GovMississippi Democrat Brandon Presley, who narrowly lost a bid for governor in 2023, tells The Bulwark that he hasn’t ruled out another try next year. Presley, a former member of the state’s Public Service Commission and a second cousin of Elvis Presley, came up just short against Republican Gov. Tate Reeves three years ago, losing by a 51-48 margin. He’d likely be the highest-profile get for Democrats, who are newly energized following Scott Colom’s stunning victory in last week’s Senate race. Several notable Republicans are already running, including Attorney General Lynn Fitch, state Agriculture Commissioner Andy Gipson, former state House Speaker Philip Gunn, and state Auditor Shad White. No major Democrats have joined the race yet, though the candidate filing deadline is not until Feb. 1. HouseFL-20Activist Elijah Manley tells the Washington Sun that he plans to seek a rematch against Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who defeated him in a busy primary for Florida’s safely Democratic 20th District in August. That contest took place after Wasserman Schultz responded to the GOP’s effort to eliminate her South Florida constituency by running in the heavily Black 20th District. But while Manley and three other Black candidates who were already running discussed uniting behind one option to defeat Wasserman Schultz, who is not Black, they all remained in the contest. The congresswoman took first in August with 45% of the vote, but none of her opponents came close to cementing enough support to defeat her. Former Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness was a distant second with 23%, while Manley’s 14% share landed him in third place. Despite the inability of Wasserman Schultz’s detractors to coalesce around a single alternative this year, Manley predicted to the Sun that the congresswoman’s critics would be “consolidated” this time. He added, “You can’t have a field of five, 10 people running against somebody like Debbie because that is how she thrives.” LA-01Republican Rep. Steve Scalise won’t say if he’ll serve out his new two-year term in Congress following his loss to Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan for minority leader. “There’s no decision on what’s next,” Scalise, who represents Louisiana’s conservative 1st District, told Fox News on Wednesday. “I’ve got to get through these next few weeks, and then we have a lot of decisions to make about what’s life going to look like in the minority. But I sure still have a great passion for this country.” Scalise’s comments came the same week that outgoing Speaker Mike Johnson, a fellow Louisiana Republican, declined to commit to finishing the term he just won last week. Scalise, the longest-serving member of Louisiana’s congressional delegation, has represented the 1st District, which includes many of New Orleans’ suburbs and more rural areas, since his victory in a 2008 special election. He won reelection last week with 61% of the vote, but as the Washington Post recently noted, he “hasn’t been a rank-and-file member” of the GOP caucus since 2012. ME-02Neither state Auditor Matt Dunlap nor state Sen. Joe Baldacci is ruling out another campaign for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, where Republican Rep.-elect Paul LePage narrowly beat Dunlap last week. Dunlap, who fell short by a 50.8 to 49.2 margin, told the Bangor Daily News last Friday he wasn’t yet ready to consider a second campaign. Baldacci, who lost a tight primary to Dunlap in June, likewise said that it was too soon to think about what’s next. NC-06, TX-15, TX-35Three more Republicans who lost House races last week—including two incumbents—have filed paperwork with the FEC that could signal comeback bids next cycle. In recent days, Rep. Addison McDowell, Rep. Monica De La Cruz, and businessman Carlos De La Cruz—the congresswoman’s brother—have all submitted new statements of candidacy for the 2028 election. These filings alone, however, do not establish that any of the three will actually run again, and none has publicly discussed their plans. McDowell lost in a 51-49 shocker to Democrat Cyril Jefferson in North Carolina’s 6th District, conservative turf in the central Piedmont region. The De La Cruz siblings, though, both lost by wide margins. Latin Grammy winner Bobby Pulido crushed Monica De La Cruz in a 62-38 landslide in Texas’ 15th District, located in the Rio Grande Valley. Meanwhile, Bexar County Sheriff’s Deputy Johnny Garcia defeated Carlos De La Cruz 55-45 in the neighboring 35th District, a San Antonio-area constituency that Republicans freshly gerrymandered last year in the ultimately failed hopes of flipping it red. OH-10Republican Rep. Mike Turner, the longest-serving House member who went down to defeat last week, also just filed paperwork for a potential comeback bid, but he’s refused to answer questions about his intentions. On Monday, Turner submitted a form known as a statement of candidacy to the FEC, which candidates must do if they raise or spend more than $5,000. That prompted the Dayton Daily News to ask him if he’ll actually run again. However, according to reporter Jamie Dupree, the Ohio congressman “was in no mood to confirm any plans” and “expressed his displeasure to another GOP lawmaker about being asked a question about 2028.” Turner acknowledged that he’d received a query from the paper by email but “walked away without commenting.” For years, Turner, who was first elected to the House in 2002, had easily turned aside all Democratic efforts to unseat him, nearly always running ahead of the top of the ticket in his Dayton-area constituency. But in the midterms, he lost the 10th District to Democrat Kristina Knickbocker by a narrow 49-48 margin. In a CNN interview on Wednesday, Turner sought to place the blame for his defeat on fellow Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, who lost the governor’s race 52-44 to Democrat Amy Acton. “In the gubernatorial race, that final ad from Vivek really was kind of a lightning strike at the end,” Turner said, referring to a heavily criticized ad Ramaswamy ran featuring Acton’s estranged mother. “And it had an impact up and down the ticket in all the races: the statewide races, my race, in my county, up and down. Even Republican judges had lost.” “I had many people saying, ‘Well, I didn’t think you could lose,’” he went on. “So an ad like that, certainly at a time in a blue wave where the water level is already high, can have outcomes that are many times unexpected.” When asked by host Pamela Brown if he “lost because of that ad,” Turner responded, “I think absolutely that that was the margin at the end. Yeah, absolutely.” JUST A FEW COMMENTS: WATN? - Disgraced former NC Lieutenant Gov. Mark Robinson has now claimed less than $800 in the bank and has filed bankruptcy, due to mounting debt. His 2024 gubernatorial campaign was derailed when messages surfaced of him calling himself a Black Nazi. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/12/us/ken-paxton-divorce.html WATN? - Outgoing TX Attorney General and former Senate nominee Ken Paxton has finalized his divorce with state Sen. Angela Paxton, who married him in 1986. Couldn't happen to a more deserving guy. At least he won't be the worst performing candidate in a North Carolina statewide race anymore after Whatley bombed. You won't find a source for it as it's more local knowledge, but Democratic state Sen. Joey Garcia is also considering a gubernatorial bid in WV, FWIW. He could also run for reelection or for Justice's Senate seat in 2030. |
Thank you! I'll keep an eye out for news about him.
Pelota is also inching closer to 50%. Depending on how D heavy those last 12% are we may not need IRV in that race either.
The house race almost certainly will go to IVR, which will be interesting to see.
Speaking of elections, there will be an important one in the Senate come January. Anybody have thoughts avout Van Hollen deciding to challenge Chuck Schumer for the position of Majority Leader?
Hope Van Hollen wins.
I do too. I honestly wish Brian Schatz had decided to run, but Van Hollen nonetheless has a great record and would do well as ML.
Schatz will be a decent whip. Maybe he can be leader when Van Hollen retires.