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Good evening. Election Day is tomorrow, and with his party fighting for its life, Trump spent the first 20-plus minutes of his final pitch to voters talking about his pool. Standing in front of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, which ran months late, cost about $14 million, and filled with algae, he walked reporters through its pipes, grass, and granite. When he finally got to the election, he sounded like a man bracing for defeat: “We gave this a very strong shot.” His own party sees it coming. Behind closed doors, Republicans told POLITICO, “We all know who the problem is. It’s Trump.” Ted Cruz is warning Democrats could win every statewide race in Texas, and Nate Silver says the final polls point to “a blue tsunami.” Meanwhile, a federal judge just called the Justice Department’s case against two former FBI officials “weaponization” designed to influence this election, and Netanyahu is pressing Trump to resume strikes on Iran as soon as the votes are in. This is the moment we’ve been building toward, and we are working around the clock to cover it. We’re going live all night tomorrow, Tuesday, Nov. 3, from 6 p.m. to midnight Eastern. We have major interviews lined up all day tomorrow and throughout the week, so you’ll hear directly from the people shaping these races, not just the pundits talking about them. I’ll be working nonstop until every result is in, and right after, we’re dropping major investigations designed to give Congress a roadmap to investigate Epstein, Trump’s ties to Russia, and more. None of this is possible without you. Independent reporting like this only survives because readers like you support it, with no billionaire owner or corporate boss deciding what gets covered. If you’ve found this work valuable, please become a paid subscriber today and help keep the coverage going, and the coffee flowing, through the long nights ahead. If you haven’t voted yet, make your plan now. Tomorrow, we find out together.
Here’s the news: Republicans Left Asking “WTF?” as Trump Spends His Final Pitch Before the Midterms Talking About His Pool With his party fighting for its life, Trump spent the first 20-plus minutes of his final speech before the midterms talking about the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. “Today I’m thrilled to announce the official opening of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool,” Trump said Monday, standing in front of the pool, which had been fenced off for months, according to CNBC. He walked reporters through the details of the pool’s pipes, grass, and granite, held up printed photos of algae, and even joked about renaming it the “Trump Reflecting Pool,” according to The Hill and the Guardian. “This is a massive piece of pool,” he said. “There’s never been anything like it.” He didn’t mention the midterms until about the 23-minute mark, and CBS News noted bluntly that “it’s not clear why the president chose to focus on the reflecting pool the day before Election Day.” It’s exactly the kind of “unfocused closing message” that Republicans have been privately complaining about to POLITICO.
When Trump finally got to the election, he sounded like a man bracing for defeat: “We gave this a very strong shot.” “For some reason, the sitting president doesn’t win the midterms,” Trump said, according to CBS News. “But we gave this a very strong shot.” He called it “the most important midterm, I believe, in our lifetime,” attacked Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed by name, and repeated his claim that “everybody is going to get $5,000” if Republicans win, according to CNBC. He also claimed his tariffs have created “$25 trillion in wealth” and that “we’re booming like we’ve never boomed before.” The speech came as a new NBC News poll found Trump’s disapproval rating at a record 60%, the highest of either of his terms. Polls show most voters already feel Trump has grown too focused on building projects in Washington, according to the Guardian.
 The pool he chose to showcase has been one of the most embarrassing projects of his presidency. The renovation cost about $14 million, according to the Guardian, after Trump originally promised a fix for about $1.5 million. After Trump unveiled his “beautiful” makeover in June, a massive algae bloom turned it green, and its “American flag blue” coating started peeling away. Trump again blamed vandals on Monday without evidence, even though his own U.S. attorney, Jeanine Pirro, told a court that a contractor’s “botched installation” caused the damage. The Justice Department charged a former Olympic canoeist over the damage, then dropped the case, and his lawyers say the dismissal “does not erase the abuse of government power.” Trump nonetheless told reporters, “This project should be a project that unites all Americans.”
 While Trump talked about his pool, Republicans across the country were sounding the alarm. At a rally for Ken Paxton in Texas, Sen. Ted Cruz warned that “if the election were over today, the Democrats could well win every single statewide position in Texas,” adding, “If the election were today, it would be ugly,” according to CBS News. Paxton’s campaign quietly canceled its planned election-eve event at the Alamo. Pollster Nate Silver said the final New York Times/Siena polls show “a blue tsunami” on the horizon, with Democrats leading in Michigan by 11 points, Texas by seven, Kansas by five, and Alaska by one. Even some Republican candidates are running away from Trump, with Iowa Senate nominee Ashley Hinson vowing to “push back on [Mr. Trump] when necessary” and Texas Rep. Monica De La Cruz warning the White House that ICE raids are hurting her district. More than 57 million Americans have already voted early, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab.
“We All Know Who the Problem Is”: Republicans Privately Blame Trump as They Brace for Midterm Losses Republicans are already privately blaming Trump for the losses they expect on Election Day, even as few are willing to criticize him publicly. POLITICO interviewed roughly a dozen GOP candidates, campaign officials, and lawmakers, who said that behind closed doors, they know exactly who put them on defense all cycle. “There was a point earlier this year where we really felt like we could defy history,” one House Republican said. “And then Trump bombed Iran. And it was just one thing after another.” Another House Republican was even harsher: “At least when Barack Obama was president, he only screwed his enemies, never his friends.” Republicans are tied or trailing in polls across key battlegrounds and expect to lose some once-safe red seats. GOP insiders warn that the silence could break if Republicans suffer a major defeat on Tuesday. “I’m not sure what the Republican Party looks like in six months,” said a Republican strategist working on competitive races across the country. “A lot of Republicans have held their tongues. A lot of Republicans who have real problems with the way things have gone the last two years have been good soldiers.” The strategist added, “But what happens if we lose 35 House seats and six Senate seats? We all know who the problem is. It’s Trump.” Another strategist said Trump “cares more about the ballroom than he cares about Republicans winning the midterms,” adding that “he wants the Nobel Peace Prize.” A fourth GOP operative had a short message ready if Republicans lose big: “Thank you, Donald Trump.” Republicans say Trump’s policies are hurting them across the map, from the Iran war to tariffs to mass deportations. In the Midwest, Republicans say the Iran war pushed up fuel and fertilizer costs, while tariffs have hurt them in border states like Maine and Michigan. Top Hill Republicans spent months privately warning the White House that Sen. Susan Collins and Michigan Senate nominee Mike Rogers could lose without an off-ramp from the trade war with Canada, according to three Republicans with direct knowledge. In South Florida, Trump’s immigration crackdown and his cancellation of protected status for Haitians and Venezuelans have angered voters. “Trump won Miami, and yet he went to the place that gave him the biggest support, and kind of just f***ed everybody over if we’re being honest,” one Florida GOP operative said. In Georgia, former Cobb County GOP chair Jason Shepherd said, “The promise of the great Trump economy has not materialized.” The White House and the Republican National Committee are pushing back, even as Republican voters themselves are split on who to blame. White House spokesperson Davis Ingle called Trump “the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party,” while another White House official called the blame game “an asinine adventure.” RNC spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre said any anonymous strategist who doubts Trump “has no idea what they’re talking about, and their candidates should request a refund for their shoddy consulting services.” A new POLITICO poll found that 29% of Republican midterm voters would blame Trump if the party does worse than in 2024, while 30% would blame his absence from the ballot. Even some Republicans who defend him are mocking his closing message. “I think Jon Husted’s ass and Nicki Minaj’s is a great closing message,” GOP strategist T.W. Arrighi said sarcastically, adding, “The buck stops with him. His approval ratings aren’t great.”
Also, if you are on Substack tomorrow night, follow the Midterms right here for commentary and real-time election results and analysis from experts across the platform! I am going to tune in throughout the night as well! Netanyahu Presses Trump to Attack Iran After the Midterms as Trump Says “No Rush” and Talks of a Deal Gain Ground Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing Trump to launch another wave of strikes on Iran right after Tuesday’s midterm elections, according to officials who spoke to the Associated Press. Two regional officials and a third person familiar with the matter said Netanyahu pressed for strikes in a call with Trump over the weekend, but Trump would not commit to military action. One official said Netanyahu is working with senior Trump administration officials to persuade the president to launch a “quick but extensive air campaign.” The AP reports that a return to full-scale war could help Netanyahu form an emergency government after he and his far-right allies lost their parliamentary majority in last week’s Israeli elections. Other U.S. allies in the Middle East are warning against new strikes, saying they could destabilize the region and lead Iran-backed Houthi rebels to ramp up attacks on Saudi Arabia and Red Sea shipping. “Qatar is tirelessly working on a diplomatic offramp with the region’s backing while Israel is looking for military ways to throw the region under the bus,” said Andreas Krieg, a King’s College London professor and former adviser to Qatar’s military. Trump says there’s “no rush” to resume strikes, as his own administration splits over whether to make a deal or go back to war. “One way or the other, we will do something, but there is no rush. We crippled them financially,” Trump told Axios, according to Fox News. Vice President JD Vance and special envoy Steve Witkoff are urging Trump to pursue a diplomatic deal, an approach backed by most Gulf countries, while Netanyahu and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly support renewed strikes. “The president and I both feel pretty good about the prospects for potentially coming to a negotiated settlement,” Vance said Monday, while warning that Trump still “retains kinetic options.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump “hasn’t made a decision” and would “prefer to solve it diplomatically.” Qatari mediators are now pushing a proposal for three days of “confidence-building measures” to pave the way for direct U.S.-Iran talks, according to Axios. At his final campaign stop at the Reflecting Pool, Trump claimed oil prices just had their biggest one-day drop in history and said a deal with Iran “could happen.” “And oil today is down $10, which is the biggest drop in oil in history,” Trump said during his closing midterm speech in Washington, according to Fox News. “It’s going to go down a lot further because we’re winning with Iran, easily winning.” He later posted on Truth Social that oil prices were “dropping like a rock” because “people feel that there will not be a war with Iran,” adding, “Iran wants a settlement, as soon as possible. It could happen!” Fox News separately reported that oil prices fell 3% on Monday after news of the renewed talks. Iranian negotiators left Doha on Sunday as a draft framework for an agreement began circulating, and officials say more talks are planned this week. Under the framework, Iran would stop its attacks in the Strait of Hormuz in return for the U.S. lifting its blockade of Iranian ports, according to the AP. Iran says it wants diplomacy but is ready for war, and is even weighing whether to change its nuclear doctrine if fighting resumes. “Our effort is to solve the problem through dialogue. Conflict is not in our interest, not in the interest of the region, and not in the interest of the world,” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said, according to Al Jazeera. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said talks through mediators are “very intensive” and that “everything depends on the political rationality of Washington.” At the same time, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the possibility of changing Iran’s nuclear doctrine in a new war “is real,” though Iran remains a member of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has ordered that any response to a U.S. or Israeli attack be immediate and without “geographic limits.” Iran’s security chief, meanwhile, said “the tone has completely changed” from the U.S. and called it “a very good sign.” Even as talks continue, violence around the Strait of Hormuz flared again Monday, including reports of explosions on an Iranian island. Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported five explosions on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, with residents saying they saw two aircraft flying overhead, according to Al Jazeera. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard also claimed it shot down a U.S. MQ-9 drone and two smaller U.S. reconnaissance drones near the strait, though the U.S. military has not confirmed any of it. Separately, a ship was struck by an unknown projectile off the coast of Oman, leaving a hole in its side, though its crew was safe, according to Britain’s maritime agency. October saw the most attacks on commercial ships in the strait since March, according to the AP. In Yemen, the government accused Houthi rebels of firing a ballistic missile at a health center, killing five people and injuring 15.
Judge Calls DOJ Case Against Ex-FBI Officials “Weaponization” as Former Chicago FBI Chief Sues, Saying He Was Pressured to Target Trump’s Foes A federal judge has thrown out the Justice Department’s case against two former FBI officials and accused the department of “weaponization” to influence the midterms. U.S. Magistrate Judge Zia Faruqui dismissed charges that Nikki Floris and Bradley Benavides, former senior FBI counterintelligence officials, lied to Congress in 2023 about their roles in investigations involving Hunter Biden, according to Reuters. Faruqui found that prosecutors failed to show probable cause, saying some of the statements weren’t false and others could be “honest mistakes of memory.” “What has transpired here cannot be described as anything other than weaponization” of federal law enforcement, he said. He suggested top officials rushed the charges last month to influence Tuesday’s election, saying, “I will not bury my head in the sand and pretend I cannot read a calendar. I will not lobotomize myself that way.” Floris broke down in tears in the courtroom and hugged her lawyers, who called the case “nothing more than a politically-motivated smear campaign aimed at scoring political points before the midterm elections.” The case traces directly back to Trump and FBI Director Kash Patel, and even the FBI agent on the case worried it would look “political.” An FBI agent testified last week that the probe began with Trump’s primetime address in July, when he announced the FBI would investigate whether intelligence agencies had suppressed information about Chinese meddling in the 2020 election, according to Reuters. The next day, Patel tasked the FBI’s Kansas City office with scrutinizing Floris, who had cast doubt on an FBI intelligence report claiming China interfered to help Joe Biden. The agent also acknowledged that a prosecutor admitted in a phone call that the criminal complaint was flawed, according to NBC News. That prosecutor, Carlton Davis, is a top aide to D.C. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro and was also involved in the failed attempt to indict six sitting members of Congress. Prosecutors brought the case by criminal complaint instead of going to a grand jury, where jurors in Washington have repeatedly rejected politically tinged cases, including the attempted indictment of Cassidy Hutchinson. The Justice Department says it “disagrees” with the ruling and is “evaluating all options,” but its losing streak against Trump’s perceived enemies keeps growing. The department said the judge’s decision “remarkably appears to suggest that high-ranking government officials are immune from accountability for making materially false statements to Congress,” according to NBC News. “The Department’s actions will continue to be guided by the facts, the evidence, and the law, not politics,” it said. Prosecutors could try to revive the case through a grand jury, though NBC News reports that seems unlikely given the judge’s finding. Benavides’s lawyers called the case “political theater” and said, “Bradley Benavides is a patriot. He is a public servant. And he is innocent.” Reuters calls the ruling “another blow to the Justice Department’s attempts to investigate people President Donald Trump views as adversaries.” On the same day, the former head of the FBI’s Chicago office sued the Justice Department, claiming he was pressured to investigate Trump’s political opponents and then made a “scapegoat.” Douglas DePodesta, who led the Chicago FBI office until July, named Patel, Attorney General Todd Blanche, and Chicago U.S. Attorney Andrew Boutros in a federal lawsuit, according to the Guardian. He alleges Boutros sent him emails “demanding that DePodesta open FBI investigations into individuals with political views or affiliations in opposition to the Trump administration.” The suit centers on the collapse of the case against the “Broadview Six,” anti-ICE protesters whose charges were dropped after a grand jury initially refused to indict and a judge found prosecutorial misconduct. DePodesta says Boutros then blamed him for the case falling apart and pushed him out, while the FBI posted that anyone “not on board with THIS FBI under the leadership of President Trump... is free to leave.” “The American people need to know what is happening within their government,” DePodesta told the Chicago Sun-Times. “I will not let fear silence me.”
Other news: Russia bombed a humanitarian aid center and a nearby shelter in southern Ukraine on Monday, killing 26 people, just as a rare ceasefire ended. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said 10 guided bombs hit the village of Komyshuvakha in the Zaporizhzhia region, striking a school building used to distribute aid and a shelter next to it, according to the Associated Press. About 20 more people are missing, and rescue efforts were hampered as Russian drones launched more attacks on the same area. “This is further proof that Russia wants no de-escalation,” Zelenskyy said. “There was a moment when the next steps could have shown that progress toward peace was possible. With these killings, Russia is sending an entirely opposite signal: Russia is counting on more killings.” The attack came hours after the Oleshky ceasefire expired, and Ukraine’s military says Russia used the pause to strengthen its drone defenses and restock ammunition. Haley Stevens’s endorsement of Republican Mike Rogers turned into a record-breaking fundraising windfall for Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. El-Sayed’s campaign raised more than $2.4 million on Sunday from more than 65,000 donations, nearly half from first-time donors, with an average gift of about $37, according to the Independent. Prediction markets also moved sharply, with El-Sayed’s odds of winning on Kalshi and Polymarket jumping to 78% and 79% by Monday morning. The latest New York Times/Siena poll shows El-Sayed leading Rogers 53% to 42%, the widest gap of any Senate battleground. In a CNN interview that Rep. Debbie Dingell called “one of the most painful interviews I have ever watched,” Stevens struggled to explain what changed her mind, and Cooper pointed out that she had called Rogers “another rubber stamp for Donald Trump’s dangerous agenda” in August. Trump, meanwhile, praised Stevens’s “bravery” on Truth Social. Bill Murray crashed a live CNBC interview with Trump economic adviser Kevin Hassett and asked why he is “always smiling.” “Why is that man always smiling? I’m a little concerned. Not worried. Concerned,” Murray said on “Squawk Box,” where he was promoting a new Paramount+ golf travel series, according to NBC News. He then asked Hassett, “Could you just say the words, ‘My dog just died’? I want to see what happens to your smile.” Hassett laughed and asked, “Is it your dog or my dog?” When Murray said “your dog,” Hassett frowned and said, “My dog just died.” Murray is a longtime CNBC viewer and a Berkshire Hathaway shareholder who has appeared on the network before.
 Investigators say the business jet that crashed in Palm Beach County may have started breaking apart in the air, and the 20-year-old co-pilot has been identified. “We do have some evidence that there was some breakup of the aircraft before impact,” NTSB member Tom Chapman said at a news conference Monday, according to NBC News. The co-pilot, Nathalia Filgueiras, learned to fly from her father, and her sister said, “Flying was her biggest passion. That was her dream to become a pilot since she was very young.” She was the voice on the final air traffic recordings, reporting ice and turbulence before calling “Mayday” and saying, “We’re gonna crash into the ground.” The NTSB says weather will be a major focus of the investigation, since a flood watch was in effect for South Florida on Sunday. About 77 mobile homes near the crash site were evacuated, and it’s still unclear when residents can return.
Historic flooding is hitting the Southwest, with a Colorado town warned of a “potentially catastrophic” flood worse than the one that wiped it out in 1911. Officials in Pagosa Springs, Colorado, said the San Juan River was forecast to crest above 20 feet, higher than the 17.8 feet it reached during the 1911 flood that destroyed most of the town, according to the Associated Press. Mandatory evacuations were also ordered in parts of Arizona and New Mexico, including Sedona, where floodwaters trapped people in their homes. “We are getting two or three months of rain in a span of a couple of days,” said a National Weather Service meteorologist in Tucson, where crews carried out swift-water boat rescues. In Flagstaff, police were searching for a man who fell into fast-moving floodwaters and “was not seen resurfacing.” Flood warnings and watches covered nearly all of Arizona and parts of Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.
Severe storms could hit parts of Texas, Kansas, and the Midwest on Election Day, though experts say weather won’t have a big impact on results. A storm system is bringing the risk of tornadoes, hail, and winds above 75 mph to North Texas and Oklahoma on Monday, raising concerns about power outages, according to NBC News. On Tuesday, the system moves east, with flash floods possible around Memphis and wet, dreary weather from East Texas to the Midwest. Research has found that each inch of rain above normal historically cut turnout by about eight-tenths of a percentage point, but early and mail voting have greatly reduced that effect. Only about 37% of Americans now vote in person on Election Day, according to the U.S. Election Assistance Commission. Still, about 45% of Kansas voters cast ballots on Election Day in 2024, so storms could matter more in its tight Senate race. The Kennedy Center has named its 2026 honorees, but the ceremony won’t be held at the Kennedy Center because of Trump’s legal fight over the building. Singers Paul Anka and Barbara Mandrell, composer David Foster, actor Andy Garcia, and playwright David Mamet will be honored Dec. 7 at Capital One Arena in Washington, according to the Independent. The ceremony was moved because the center has been closed since September amid a legal battle over Trump’s push to add his name to the building and a planned two-year, $257 million renovation. A federal judge has ordered the administration to give at least 30 days’ notice before making any physical changes to the building, including demolishing it. Last year’s ceremony, which Trump hosted, drew its smallest audience ever, with 35% fewer viewers than the year before. Mamet is a known Trump supporter, and it’s not yet clear whether Trump will host again. Snapchat’s parent company has settled with two teenagers who claimed the app was designed to be addictive and caused their depression, anxiety, and eating disorders. The settlement came during jury selection for what would have been Snap’s first trial in the sweeping litigation over social media’s harm to young people, according to Reuters. The plaintiffs, a 16-year-old from Illinois and an 18-year-old from Mississippi, had already settled with Meta, TikTok, and YouTube. They say they started using YouTube as early as age 3 and other platforms around age 9, developing compulsive habits they blame on features like autoplay and infinite scroll. Thousands of similar lawsuits are pending, and in the first case to go to trial, a Los Angeles jury found Meta and YouTube negligent and awarded a young woman $6 million. In August, Meta reached settlements worth up to $18 billion with nearly every state. The man accused of starting the deadly Palisades fire in Los Angeles is back in federal court for a retrial after his first trial ended in a hung jury. Jonathan Rinderknecht, 30, is accused of starting a small brush fire on Jan. 1, 2025, that smoldered underground and reignited days later into the blaze that killed 12 people and destroyed nearly 7,000 homes and other structures, according to Reuters. Jurors in his first trial deadlocked 10-2 in favor of acquittal in June. His lawyers argue that the New Year’s Day fire was caused by fireworks and that the Palisades fire was a separate blaze set by someone else. Prosecutors say security footage and phone data show he was the only person near where the fire started, and that he asked ChatGPT whether someone could be at fault for lighting a fire “because of your cigarettes.” Rinderknecht has pleaded not guilty and faces up to 40 years in prison. A judge has not yet ruled on whether Lindsay Clancy, the Massachusetts mother accused of killing her three children, can be tried again. Clancy’s lawyers argued Monday that a retrial would violate double jeopardy, saying the judge should have investigated further after the jury foreperson sent notes about a lone holdout juror, according to the Associated Press. Prosecutors countered that the holdout juror “did not refuse to deliberate. He refused to agree,” and that he believed Clancy was guilty. Clancy has never disputed killing her children in 2023, but her defense argues she was suffering from postpartum psychosis. Prosecutors say she acted deliberately and knew what she was doing was wrong. Judge William Sullivan set a hearing for Nov. 16 to revisit the case and potentially set a retrial date. Health officials say the North Carolina Chili’s that served margaritas made with a cleaning chemical has reopened and won’t be fined. Three customers and two employees suffered chemical burns in and around their mouths after a bartender mistook a degreasing chemical in an unlabeled container for sugar, according to NBC News. The chemical had been given to an employee by a contractor power-washing the building and was left in the bar area. The restaurant in Forest City was shut down Thursday and reopened the next day after inspectors finished their investigation. The Foothills Health District said its investigation is closed and no fines were issued. Chili’s called it an “incident isolated to a single restaurant,” though it gave a different count of injured customers than health officials did.
See you soon. — Aaron
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