Today in Politics, Bulletin 494. 11/2/26 Ron Filipkowski Nov 2 … On the eve of the midterms before any results are in, Republicans are already grumbling to reporters that Trump screwed them in this election. … Politico: Republicans are already privately blaming Trump as they brace for losses on Tuesday. Even as they race to distance themselves from his actions on tariffs, the unpopular Iran war and his mass deportation agenda, few have been willing to criticize him publicly - a clear sign of just how powerful Trump’s grip remains on the GOP. … But interviews with roughly a dozen candidates, campaign officials and lawmakers reveal they’re acutely aware of who, exactly, put them on the back foot this entire cycle. … One House Republican: “There was a point earlier this year where we really felt like we could defy history. And then Trump bombed Iran. And it was just one thing after another.” … T.W. Arrighi, a Republican strategist working on the SC Senate race and others, said sarcastically: “I think Jon Husted’s ass and Nicki Minaj’s is a great closing message. You’ve got to take the good with the bad with Trump, unless you want to drive yourself crazy every day. The buck stops with him. His approval ratings aren’t great.” … Another House Republican: “At least when Barack Obama was president, he only screwed his enemies, never his friends.” … Semafor: How Trump put the Senate in play: Picked JD Vance as his running mate, opening up tough expensive special election that GOP could lose. DeWine appointed Husted, who originally wanted to run for governor. Close race that wouldn’t have been up til ‘28 otherwise. Tangled with Tillis over healthcare cuts in 2025, prompting his retirement. Thune said then Tillis “knew how to run and win in NC.” Trump cleared field for Whatley, who is down by large margin. Cold-shouldered Cornyn then backed Paxton. Cornyn: “TX was an unforced error, I think, on the part of the president. If I won the nomination, then that would be a layup in Nov. That’s all off the table.” Backed Sen. Darline Graham in crowded SC race, most senators thought she’d be an interim senator. Now in toss-up race against Annie Andrews with state GOP divided. Andrews: “Darline was going to be easier for me.” Tried to oust Kemp in ‘22; when Georgia race came up this cycle, Kemp passed on the race. Trump backed Rep. Mike Collins over Kemp’s pick Dooley, now huge underdog to Sen. Ossoff. Tariffs, filibuster pressure and of course, the Iran War. A GOP consultant: “Every negative for the GOP this cycle is a downstream effect of Iran.” … Axios: “Republicans are burning tens of millions of last-minute ad dollars to try to rescue 3 red-state senators who they say ignored months of warnings that their campaigns were in danger. Senate races in KS, SC and MS are normally GOP layups. This year, Republicans have diverted resources from swing-state battles to defend them. … The frustration with Sens. Roger Marshall, Darline Graham and Cindy Hyde-Smith comes amid broader GOP finger-pointing as polls show a nationwide backlash against Trump. National Republicans have spent $33 million in KS, $21 million in SC and $2.4 million in MS. … A national GOP operative involved in several key senate races: “Democrats may win these seats in a wave, but not a blue wave. It’s the wave of arrogance and laziness that washed over these GOP incumbents and made them think they were invincible.” … Republicans say the 3 senators ignored warnings to raise more money and build stronger campaign operations. Trump’s political operation also warned Senate Republicans that they would need to pull their own weight. The most complaints center on Marshall, who has raised just $7.5 million compared with $19 million for his Democratic opponent, Adam Hamilton. … Republicans describe Marshall’s campaign as overconfident. About a month ago, his team told aides to other GOP senators that the race would be effectively over within 10 days once it released opposition research on Hamilton. It wasn’t.” … Marshall continued to try and contain the damage from the story about him suing is OB/GYN patients for unpaid bills, which caused some of them to be arrested. He made his final ad of the campaign about the issue over the advice of his consultants who told him to stop calling attention to it: “We occasionally handed some of those accounts over to a collection agency, just like nearly every private medical practice does. My involvement in any patients’ accounts ended when I turned it over to an outside agency.” … Jeez. He’s blaming the collection agency. Who he retained. Not sure this is helping. … Then he went on Fox: Q: “Why was it so important to you to get that response out and did your campaign disagree that that was a good idea? Marshall: We certainly have had disagreements. This was a shot at my reputation.” … Dave Wasserman with Cook Political: “Lots of fancy TX early vote analyses out there, but here’s a simple fact: In the 23 counties that voted for any statewide federal Dem this decade, early votes cast are at 91% of ‘24 levels. In the other 231 all-GOP counties, early votes cast are at just 79% of ‘24 levels. In fact, two large 90%+ Hispanic counties, Hidalgo and Webb have already surpassed their early vote totals from 2024, pretty remarkable for a midterm. Meanwhile, the reddest large TX county, Montgomery, is at just 77% of its 2024 EV turnout. What does that mean? There’s an undeniable Dem enthusiasm advantage, which we already knew. Paxton and Republicans are going to need a huge election day vote to overcome what Talarico’s already banked. Keep in mind: Even though only 23 TX counties have voted for a statewide federal Dem since ‘20, those counties account for 55% of TX’s registered voters. The two Republican counties Talarico needs to flip: Collin and Denton, are home to another 8% of TX’s voters.” … Latino voter consultant Mike Madrid: “The highest midterm Latino turnout in history was 2018. Trump’s first midterm. It was also the most anti-Republican ever. The 2026 midterms will likely surpass that as the highest Latino turnout ever - driven by low propensity, rural, non-college Latino voters. Don’t ever let them tell you Trump can’t turn out voters.” … Pollster Nate Silver: “The thing is, at this point, Dems can absorb a modest-sized polling error and win the Senate. Not a large one. But they have leads of >=3.0 points in states totaling 5 flips, plus in all their own seats.” … JD Vance on the tarmac heading to a campaign event: Q - “Your approval rating is currently underwater. Vance: I don't think too much about that stuff. That's all based on polling that we've found a number of times in the past have been untrue.” … VoteHub: “Based on historical reporting patterns, we expect MI’s final 15% of votes tomorrow to come largely from Democratic areas and heavily favor Abdul El-Sayed. If those patterns hold, Mike Rogers could lead by 2.8 points at 12:54 AM in a race that ultimately finishes tied. In OH, we expect an early blue mirage as absentee votes are reported, followed by a smaller red mirage later in the night, before outstanding votes from major cities shift the count toward Sherrod Brown after midnight. Maine counts by town, rather than vote method, and releases votes extremely slowly. Fewer than half of votes may be in by midnight, with roughly 20% left after Election Night. Missing rural towns are likely to help Collins gain ground later, especially after Election Night, so early Jackson leads may overstate his final performance.” … Bruce Mehlman compiled this guide to help political fanatics like us keep up with what’s happening on election day: … Politico’s Jonathan Martin: “Bill Clinton is expecting a big night for Democrats and compared this midterm to his own favorite, 1998. His party made sweeping gains that year in the South thanks to strong Black turnout and won races there they’ve not prevailed in ever since. He also had some advice for how his party should interpret their success this week: use the results to start rebuilding the battered Democratic brand. “If we have a good election, and I think we will, we have to realize that that’s the opportunity to establish trust not the ability to take it for granted.” “Democrats have gotten smarter in much of the country in the people they’re recruiting and the campaigns they’re running and we’re actually reaching out to people.” He singled out senate nominee Adam Hamilton: “This preacher in KS. The fact that he agreed to do this is amazing. And he could win. Even if he doesn’t, he will change the politics of KS.” As important is how Republicans respond to a thorough defeat. Clinton pointed out that House GOP members who survive will likely hail from deep-red districts and will be less inclined to break from Trump because “their next election is the primary of 2028.” On whether Republicans will break with Trump after losses: “It’s going to have to be a thumper. Politicians never change unless the voters change them.” … RNC Chair Joe Gruters was asked on NewsNation about Trump saying to rally attendees that if he gives them $5,000 that will only buy them a hamburger at Mar-a-Lago: “I’ve talked to the president about this and he definitely has empathy for people. He’s been focusing on the American worker from day one.” … Trump’s final event before the midterms was a speech in front of the Reflecting Pool in DC celebrating himself for the job he did on the remodel: “We are giving serious thought to changing the name to the Trump Reflecting Pool.” “The vandals went to work, but we also went to work on the vandals.” … He’s the Dirty Harry of Reflecting Pools. “There was great vandalism with slashing. We have pictures of it. Jesse Watters did a whole long piece on it. It was sad to watch because the vandals really went to town.” … Greatest closing argument for a midterm ever. “It’s not an easy thing. The algae forms easily, but I don’t think you’ll see this now. Under the Biden and Obama admins, algae took over the entire pool.” He then held up a photo. “The Triumphal Arc Military Complex will tremendous drone capability, shooter capability—it’s right in the middle of everything. It’s important for our military.” … Yes, he always says “Arc” not “Arch.” “We’re building the National Garden of American Heroes. 250 to 500 great American heroes in statue form done by the greatest artists in the world. Next to that, we’re doing the golf course.” “We’re going to be doing a promenade. It’s basically a walkway. We call it a promenade. It’s a great architectural concept. You’ll be able to walk.” … What a time to be alive covering politics in America. … WaPo: “For 11 years, Trump’s raucous rallies have offered a signature spectacle to a political movement that remade the Republican Party and then the country. As Election Day approached, Trump appeared to be contemplating the end of an era. ‘I’m closing it down tonight,’ Trump said Sunday as he opened his final rally in Salina, KS. ‘This is it.’ … With 30 events in 32 days, Trump’s rallies in this midterm campaign have underscored his enduring dominance of the Republican Party and his determination to make himself the center of the election debate.” … VoteHub: Democrats’ stronger turnout among lower-propensity voters gives David Jolly a fighting chance tomorrow in the FL governor’s race against Republican Byron Donalds. Final Florida In-Person Early Voting: 🔴 Republicans: 1,495,880 🔵 Democrats: 1,206,968 ⚪ Other/NPA: 758,006 Cumulative GOP Margin: 2024: R+19.4 2026: R+8.3 There is no Ask the Editor this week because I’m working on the midterms around the clock since 4 AM yesterday. (I have the 4:21 AM social media post to prove it). I am going to get tomorrow’s election day Bulletin out early at 4 PM ET so everyone will have a good primer before the polls close. I will just have to start at 5 AM instead of 6 AM to make it happen. Obviously, I will be glued to the election results just like you from that point forward. I may also jump on some live podcasts. Of course, I want wins everywhere. But I want those senate seats in TX, ME and KS more than anything else. Give me 2 out those 3 and I’m happy. But TX - that is the biggest one of them all for what it means heading into 2028 and beyond. If you missed yesterday’s Bulletin, you can find it here. You can subscribe for free to continue reading. Meidas+ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. … Don Jr looked and sounded like he was jacked up pretty good again during a campaign speech in OH today. Meidas digital editor Acyn: “I watched his last speech, and it wasn’t like this. He seems very off this time. On my TV, his eyes are watering so much that it looks like he’s crying.” … From the speech: “They say the transgender thing is not an issue - but they want to go after your 3-year-olds without parental consent.” “They want to pack the Supreme Court. They want to make Ohio a state!” “They want to trans your kids, and don’t want parents to know anything about it. “They’ll just let them do it. Like 3 year olds can make those decisions.” On Democratic nominee for governor Amy Acton: “Watching Amy - it’s like, every speech, she just got back from a really long happy hour with Kamala Harris.” … Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY) at a campaign event: “We are gonna impeach Pete Hegseth. You’re damn right. And he knows it.” … NYT: Elon Musk’s 2025-2026 political spending - $474 million total: $216 million on America PAC. $168 million on Senate Leadership Fund, almost all to help Paxton. $30 million to House GOP super PAC. $44 million to other Republicans. $16 million to state GOP groups in TX, MI and WI. … NYT list of Top 20 Donors in the 2026 Midterms. All were Republican donors except noted: 1. Elon Musk, $446 million 2. Dick and Liz Uihlein, $150 million 3. One Nation, $138 million 4. Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, $116 million 5. Jeff Yass, $110 million 6. Majority Forward, $104 million (D) 7. George and Alex Soros, $103 million (D) 8. House Majority Forward, $97 million (D) 9. Mike Bloomberg, $85 million (D) 10. Ripple Labs and Chris Larsen, $73 million 11. Miriam Adelson, $68 million 12. American Action Network, $64 million 13. Coinbase, $55 million 14. Paul Singer, $54 million 15. Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, $53 million 16. Greg and Anna Brockman, $50 million 17. American Prosperity Alliance, $48 million 18. Koch Inc., $47 million 19. Reid Hoffman, $42 million (D) 20. Economic Opportunity Fund, $42 million (D) … Jordan Acker posted about Rep. Haley Stevens’ endorsement of Republican senate candidate Mike Rogers: “As Haley’s friend, I can’t be silent. Yesterday morning, afternoon, and evening, I spoke with Haley several times. At 8:58 this morning, she told me she intended to remain silent. I don’t know what changed in the two hours that followed. I want to believe she was being truthful with me. I’ve known her fiancé, Jason Turkish, for years. I respect him as a brilliant lawyer and advocate for disabled Americans. But I have become deeply troubled by his behavior. I’ve heard serious concerns about his treatment of Haley’s staff, friends, and allies. My own experiences have only deepened those concerns. It is painful to watch someone you care about go through something like this. It is even more painful to worry about the influence of those closest to her. I don’t know what happened this morning, and I won’t pretend that I do. Haley is my friend. I am deeply concerned for her well-being. She deserves dignity, independence, and the freedom to make her own decisions. But at the end of the day, this is bigger than any one person or political controversy. We cannot lose sight of the people affected by these decisions and this conduct: her constituents, her staff, her friends, and the people who have placed their trust in her. They deserve respect, accountability, and answers, too.” A person replied: “If she’s a friend maybe try talking to her instead of virtue signaling on social media.” Acker responded: “Her fiance took her phone away.” … Comedian and actor Tom Arnold, who has been married 4 times including to Roseanne Barr: “Haley Stevens is so bat shit crazy I’m surprised I haven’t married her.” … Pete Buttigieg on CNN: “I voted for Abdul, it was because Abdul is for everybody getting health care running against Mike Rogers, who repeatedly voted to cut the ACA. This vote was not a close call for me. And whatever Haley Stevens says isn’t going to change that for me. And I don’t think it’s changing that for a lot of Michiganders either.” … State Sen. Mallory McMorrow on CNN: “I live in her district. People are not talking about Haley Stevens. If they are, they are saying how angry they are that they ever trusted her, that they ever donated to her, that they ever voted for her.” … HuffPost: “Abdul El-Sayed raised more than $2.4 million on Sunday, setting a single-day fundraising for the campaign. 29,602 donors gave for the first time.” … Mississippi Free Press: “As Mississippians gear up to cast ballots for a major US Senate race and all 4 House seats, some voters could still be sent to the wrong location on Election Day at multiple polling places due to erroneous addresses and outdated info still uncorrected in the state’s system. … We reported on Oct. 23 that local election officials had made changes to 138 polling places since the 2024 election, most of which moved locations, though some closed, and several new ones opened. In 18 instances, though, we found that the locations or addresses the counties listed were incorrect or outdated in the Statewide Election Management System. … We contacted the Secretary of State’s Office about those issues and attempted to follow up with local circuit clerks in the 8 counties where those errors were detected: Bolivar, Jackson, Neshoba, Oktibbeha, Perry, Sharkey, Smith and Tunica counties. … MS Secretary of State Comms Director Elizabeth Jonson said that a member of the office’s elections team reiterated that “the counties are responsible for entering the polling location info or making changes based on a vote by the Supervisors.” … Punchbowl: “The simmering fight over House Republican leadership is about to boil over in the next 36 hours. Speaker Mike Johnson and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, who both traveled with Trump Sunday, will face big decisions quickly. If Republicans lose the majority, Johnson and Scalise may be on a collision course, and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) is eyeing a run for minority leader too. … In the last few weeks, Johnson has said the polls are all wrong, Republicans could expand their majority, and it’s ‘hilarious’ to think that Democrats can get to 230 seats. … Inside the House Republican Conference, there are competing theories on whether Johnson would seek another term if Republicans lose badly. He has been calling GOP lawmakers to tout his expensive travel for House Republicans, leading some to believe he’s keeping his options open. … Scalise’s orbit is certain that Johnson won’t run. Scalise has told some lawmakers that he’ll run for leader if Johnson won’t. But we think there’s a chance that Scalise will run even if Johnson does. Lurking behind all of this is Jordan, who has quietly built support for years, essentially since losing his 2023 speakership bid.” … The Wrap: “Fox News is heading into the midterm elections with an unusual problem: Its audience is shrinking. America’s most-watched cable news network lost 27% of its total day viewers in Oct compared with a year earlier, while CNN and MS NOW gained ground. Among adults 25-54, Fox’s total day audience fell 32% to an average of 98,000 viewers, its lowest monthly level in 25 years. … So where did Fox’s viewers go? And is October a temporary dip in political news viewing or the beginning of a more lasting shift? Lachlan Murdoch shrugged off the decline on Monday’s earnings call, chalking it up to fatigue: “What we are seeing is some viewer fatigue, where our viewers have gone through an incredible news cycle last year with the inauguration, the Charlie Kirk tragedy, DOGE, flooding, it was an incredible news cycle last year. Those viewers are not switching to another news channel, they are just fatigued and watching slightly less TV overall.” … Telegraph: “The WH has developed a secret plan to keep major parts of Trump’s political agenda on track if Democrats seize control of Congress in the midterm elections. Senior WH officials, including Stephen Miller, have spent months drawing up a plan that would allow Trump to continue to pass laws without congressional approval.” … A Trump admin official said that Will Scharf, the WH counsel, and his team are also looking at “what Mr Trump can legally do on his own, where he could push the limits of his authority and how to defend those decisions in court.” … “Trump is planning to lean on his executive power in the event of a Democratic sweep of the midterms. Among the executive actions under consideration are new tariffs on imports of critical minerals and wind turbines, tighter rules on visas for intl students and temporary foreign workers, and measures aimed ⁠at lowering housing and construction costs. … Federal agencies have submitted proposals and legal reviews of actions the admin could take unilaterally. Russ Vought is examining which priorities can move forward using money already appropriated by Congress. He also wants to change grant rules to give political appointees more say in which govt programs receive taxpayer money, potentially giving the WH more influence over spending without seeking congressional approval.” … Axios: “Trump said Monday he’d move to protect Elon Musk if Democrats investigate the SpaceX and Tesla CEO after the midterm elections. He also suggested the possibility of pre-emptive pardons for staff and others around him if Democrats pursue investigations. … Trump is positioning himself for a combative final two years in the WH, as polls increasingly point to the prospect of a significant blue wave. In an interview for the ‘Pod Force One’ podcast, host Miranda Devine asked Trump about rumors of Musk being investigated or having assets seized. Trump: ‘We’ll have to protect them.’ … Musk has spent nearly half a billion dollars opposing Democrats during this election cycle and recently suggested it would be the end of democracy if they win the WH and Congress in 2028.” … Tucker Carlson made this wild post which went viral this morning: “Under pressure from Netanyahu, the Trump admin may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran. The target would be Pickax Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian govt has restarted its nuclear enrichment program. No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate 300 feet of solid granite to destroy the tunnels where enrichment is supposedly taking place. The only military option is a nuclear strike. Netanyahu has been pushing hard for one. ‘Bibi calls Trump about it every day,’ says an informed observer. Netanyahu is cornered and desperate. After last week’s election results, he can’t form a govt unless Trump intervenes directly in Israeli politics and brokers a deal with other parties that gives Netanyahu 61 seats in the Knesset. Otherwise, he is out as PM and on his way to ignominy, investigations and possibly jail. Netanyahu must stay close to Trump. He needs this war. To that end, he’s applied maximum pressure to his closest allies in the admin, including Pete Hegseth and CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper. Both oppose a negotiated settlement to the war they’ve so grievously mismanaged; both are pushing to restart major combat operations. Fallout from a ground explosion at Pickax Mountain would contaminate the Persian Gulf, poisoning the water supply for 100 million people. No country other than the US has ever used a nuclear weapon in war. Some would like to. An American nuclear attack on Iran would set a new precedent. The Russians have already told at least two other govts that an American nuclear strike on Iran would free them to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Close observers say Trump is likely to decide by next weekend whether or not to use nuclear weapons. That would be Nov. 7.” … House Judiciary ranking member Jamie Raskin to Meidas on his Epstein investigation progress: “We now have the first-person accounts of 5 different women saying that they were sexually assaulted by Trump. And then we have another 6 women, for a total of 11, who link him to the whole network of sex trafficking of Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell.” … Semafor: A leading progressive lawmaker says his party colleagues need to think big and dare Trump to veto Democratic bills if they take the majority. Rep. Greg Casar (D-TX) is pushing for votes on bills to tackle “price gouging, that crack down on utility rates going up, that crack down on politicians profiting off their jobs. If Trump vetoes them, then that’s exactly the platform upon which we beat Vance or whoever else in 2028.” … House Democratic leaders have sketched out some early priorities for their potential majority, like restoring lapsed health insurance subsidies or reversing cuts to Medicaid; the path beyond that is fuzzier. But the scope of House Democrats’ ambitions will depend on how many seats they pick up, and on Senate control, too. … Casar bristled at recent comments by Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI), who said that Democrats should table bigger policy questions until the 2028 campaign, since Trump is still in the WH and likely to veto their legislation. He argued that pushing the envelope was necessary for Democrats to prove to voters they care: “I don’t want to waste our majority by negotiating down to Trump’s level.” … And if Democrats take the Senate as well on Tuesday, party-line legislation to circumvent the filibuster should be on the table: '“We should do a reconciliation bill, or multiple reconciliation bills, and dare Trump on those issues. We should also push for policies that are 80% popular across the country and dare Senate Republicans to vote against them.” … Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) to Meidas: “Trump went through life as a guy who avoided Vietnam. He didn’t want to serve. He doesn’t understand service. He’s intimidated by people who served. So he wants to project this tough-guy image and just go around dropping bombs on things at every opportunity. And I think with Hegseth, it’s something different. He seems to operate as a secretary of defense as you would expect a junior officer might. He cares about those kinds of things - how people look, beards, uniforms, gym shorts. And then, to project his tough-guy image, he runs around on a stage and talks about maximum lethality. So I think you have insecurity in both of them for different reasons. The result is dead Americans, a lot of dead Iranians, 800 injured Americans, tens of billions of dollars wasted. And what did the American people get out of this? They got higher prices, and now they can’t afford to put gas in their car. And half of the country is having a hard time affording food because the president and the secretary of defense are clueless, have no idea what they’re doing.” … WSJ on the deal Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff pitched to Russia and Ukraine: “The US proposal: a quick resumption of Russian natural-gas sales to Europe via Ukrainian pipelines, with an American company acting as an intermediary and money going to an escrow account. WH officials proposed that Russia deposit proceeds earned from these gas sales to Europe into an escrow account in a 3rd-party jurisdiction. They have tried to sell the idea to European leaders as a way to lower energy prices ahead of a winter when Europe’s gas reserves have reached their lowest seasonal level in several years. Such pressure represents a complete about-turn from Trump’s first admin. Back then, Trump repeatedly chastised German Chancellor Angela Merkel for building the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia. He warned that Nord Stream 2 would make Germany ‘captive to Russia,’ and, in late 2019, imposed sanctions on it. A senior Nordic official said the idea of resuming Russian gas purchases goes against everything the Europeans stand for, while a senior official from a large European nation compared it to former British leader Neville Chamberlain sacrificing Czechoslovakia to Hitler in exchange for business deals.” … Actor Bill Murray was a special guest in the studio on CNBC’s Squawk Box at the same time WH economic advisor Kevin Hassett was begin interviewed: Murray: “Why is that man always smiling? I’m a little concerned. Not worried. Concerned.” Murray: “Could you just say the words, ‘My dog just died.’ I want to see what happens to your smile. Hassett: Well is it your dog, or my dog? Murray: Your dog. Hassett: Okay. My dog just died.” … He was still smiling.