Morning Digest: Pennsylvania Republicans have pulled back to their last bastion—the state Senate
Morning Digest: Pennsylvania Republicans have pulled back to their last bastion—the state SenateA massively expensive battle could put Democrats in charge for the first time in three decades
Leading OffPA State SenateHaving given up any hope of unseating Gov. Josh Shapiro and with little chance of reclaiming the state House, Pennsylvania Republicans have launched an all-out war to save their majority in the state Senate—and prevent Democrats from taking full control of state government for the first time since 1994. The Philadelphia Inquirer, citing data from AdImpact, reported Wednesday that Republicans have spent more than $15 million on TV and streaming ads, both to protect four vulnerable incumbents in the eastern part of the state and to target Democratic Sen. James Malone. Democrats, likewise, have deployed more than $12 million to unseat that quartet of Republicans and help Malone, who is defending the conservative Lancaster County seat he flipped last year in a shocking special election victory. Only half of the 50-member chamber is up each election cycle, so both parties will need to wait until 2028 to target other competitive districts. Democrats, who aren’t at serious risk of losing any of their other seats this year, need to win three of those five races to turn what’s now a 27-23 Republican majority into a 25-25 deadlock. Lt. Gov. Austin Davis, Shapiro’s running mate in next month’s election, would then be able to use his tie-breaking vote to support his party on procedural matters, such as choosing the chamber’s leader and deciding when bills receive a vote. That would give Democrats more power in the Senate than they’ve had in over three decades, but it still wouldn’t be enough to pass their agenda on a party-line vote. The state constitution prohibits the lieutenant governor from breaking ties on “the final passage of a bill or joint resolution,” so Democrats have good reason to try for an outright majority. However, there’s one other potential problem for Republicans in November. Republican Sen. Camera Bartolotta is locked in an unpredictable race against independent Jodi Borello in the southwestern corner of the state, a contest where the Democratic nominee removed his name from the ballot this summer. Borello, an environmental consultant and former Republican who says she voted for Donald Trump in all three of his campaigns, told Spotlight Pennsylvania she wouldn’t caucus with either party. A recent poll from the website State Navigate showed the two tied at 43 apiece in the 46th Senate District, which Donald Trump carried by an imposing 64-35 margin two years ago. The survey showed Borello, who has made her opposition to data centers a centerpiece of her campaign, largely appealing to left-leaning voters and moderates while still winning enough conservatives to pose a serious threat to Bartolotta. But while a victory for Borello would complicate the math in the Senate, both parties are largely focusing their attention and resources on the five battlegrounds to the east. The most competitive race on paper is the contest between GOP Sen. Tracy Pennycuick and Christopher Thomas, a volunteer firefighter and former local Democratic leader, for the 24th District, which includes part of Montgomery and Berks counties in the Philadelphia suburbs. Pennycuick prevailed 52-48 in 2022, while Trump, according to calculations by The Downballot, carried her district 51-48 two years later. The contest is also one of the two most expensive Senate races in the state. The Inquirer writes that Pennycuick’s campaign has spent or reserved $4 million on advertising, compared to $3 million for Thomas. Further east is the 6th District, where Republican Sen. Frank Farry is defending the Bucks County constituency he won 53-45 in the last midterm cycle, which Trump later took 52-47. His opponent is Eileen Hartnett Albillar, a Democrat who was elected county clerk of courts in 2023. The two sides are almost evenly matched on the airwaves, with Farry holding a $3.6 million to $3.3 million edge. Despite the enormous price tag, there’s a local race higher up the ballot that’s drawing even more money and attention. U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a Republican who represents all of Farry’s constituents, is going up against Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie in the 1st Congressional District, one of the most hotly contested battlegrounds in the nation. Republican Sen. Rosemary Brown, meanwhile, is squaring off against Democrat Brian Wrightson, a businessman and former local director of emergency services for the Red Cross, in the northeastern part of the state. Brown won her last race 59-41, while Trump carried her 40th Senate District 53-46. Almost all of Brown’s constituents are also represented by U.S. Rep. Rob Bresnahan, who faces a stiff challenge from Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti in the 8th District. GOP Sen. Jarrett Coleman, finally, has not one but two of the nation’s most competitive congressional races in his backyard. About 60% of his 16th Senate District is located within the boundaries of the 7th Congressional District, a Lehigh Valley constituency where freshman Republican Ryan Mackenzie is trying to fend off Democrat Bob Brooks, while the balance is in Fitzpatrick’s district. Coleman faces a rematch against Lehigh County Controller Mark Pinsley, whom he defeated 54-46 four years ago. Trump went on to carry Coleman’s seat by a 54-45 spread, making it the most conservative of the four Democratic pickup opportunities. Malone, however, has an especially tough task as he tries to keep an even redder seat in Democratic hands. The 36th District supported Trump 57-42 in 2024, but five months later, Malone scored a stunning 50-49 victory, which gave Democrats a historic breakthrough in Lancaster County. Malone now faces Republican state Rep. Tom Jones in his quest for a full four-year term. If Democrats, who are well-positioned to expand their narrow majority in the House, also take the Senate as Shapiro wins reelection, they’ll enjoy more power over state government than they’ve had in close to half a century—apart from a brief and chaotic interlude in the mid-1990s. Democrats held the governor’s office and both chambers of the legislature going into the 1978 elections, but Republican Dick Thornburgh’s win in the gubernatorial race coincided with his party unexpectedly flipping the House. The Senate followed two years later, leaving the GOP in control of the proverbial state government “trifecta.” While the governorship and House would both change hands several times over the ensuing four decades, the GOP’s Senate majority cracked just once, and only briefly. That break occurred shortly after the 1992 elections when Sen. Frank Pecora, a moderate Republican long estranged from his party, announced he was joining the Democrats. Pecora’s defection gave Democrats, who once again controlled the governorship and lower chamber, control of the Senate thanks to Lt. Gov. Mark Singel’s tie-breaking veto, but they wouldn’t enjoy their new trifecta for long. Democratic Sen. Francis Lynch died in the spring of 1993, and though the chamber remained tied because a GOP-held seat was also vacant, Democrats desperately needed to win the special election to replace Lynch that November. They bought time by refusing to seat Republican David Heckler, who easily won his own special election in July, until Lynch’s seat could be filled. In that race, Democrat William Stinson initially appeared to have narrowly prevailed against Republican Bruce Marks, but the GOP accused him of benefiting from massive fraud. By a 25-24 margin, the Senate voted to seat Stinson—who voted in his own favor—in an acrimonious session where two members almost came to blows. Only then did Democrats allow Heckler to be sworn in. But Stinson was soon forced out of office after a federal judge ruled months later that his apparent win was the result of “a massive scheme”—and that Marks was also the rightful winner and needed to be seated. Marks took office and put his party back in control of the Senate, where it’s remained ever since. The Downballot PodcastThe top ballot measures of 2026Amid a years-long GOP assault on direct democracy, voters across the country have the chance to turn the tide next month. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, Hannah Ledford of the Fairness Project explains how her organization supports progressive ballot measures and highlights some of the year’s most important. Two proposals in particular—one in Missouri and another in Montana—would clamp down on politicians’ ability to interfere with or roll back ballot initiatives, safeguarding the rights of citizens to pass laws they believe in. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also take stock of the strangely quiet death of Republican John James’ campaign for Michigan’s open governorship, which few outlets have covered despite the high stakes. In addition, the Davids discuss two special reports The Downballot published this week: our guide to the top races for state supreme courts, and our new analysis of House polling that points to a Democratic wave. 3Q FundraisingThe deadline for federal candidates to file fundraising disclosures for the third quarter is tonight at midnight Eastern. We’ll bring you complete fundraising data for both Senate and House races following the deadline.
HouseCA-14Despite a single-digit loss in the summertime special election to replace disgraced former Rep. Eric Swalwell, Democrat Melissa Hernandez’s campaign for a full term representing California’s safely blue 14th District has all but collapsed. Hernandez, the president of the board of Bay Area Rapid Transit, lost that race to then-state Sen. Aisha Wahab by a 53-47 margin—a considerably closer result than in either of the primaries this year that saw the two square off. Wahab, also a Democrat, led 38-17 in the primary for a full term and 43-17 in the special election primary, but heavy outside spending before the August special helped Hernandez close much of that gap. Now, however, the San Francisco Chronicle reports that Hernandez is down to just a single staffer and has received no serious third-party help. Most notably, she’s come under intense fire for suggesting that Wahab had “communications with the Taliban” at a recent debate. Wahab, a Muslim and Afghan American, slammed Hernandez afterward in a video for using “a racist dog whistle as a distraction for her terrible performance.” While issuing a closing statement at the end of the debate, Hernandez said, “I’m an honest person in regards to not being—having communications with the Taliban like my—” before the moderator cut her off for going over her time limit. Hernandez later released a statement saying that her comments “were intended to highlight a significant policy difference between us, and were never intended to suggest that Rep. Wahab has any personal connection to the Taliban.” In an August interview with Democracy Now!, Wahab had said that “regardless of which group is in power” in Afghanistan, “we should be exercising diplomacy and having a relationship.” In her statement, Hernandez argued Wahab’s approach would result in “legitimizing a terrorist regime.” TX-28, CA-13The Congressional Leadership Fund has given up on trying to oust Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, despite the fact that Texas Republicans made his district even redder last year when they passed their new gerrymander. Punchbowl reported on Wednesday that CLF was pulling $3 million from its remaining ad reservations in the 28th District and would redirect that money toward nearby races. The super PAC had already spent at least $4 million to help Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, a highly touted GOP recruit who switched parties two years ago. Late on Tuesday night, NBC’s Jonathan Allen broke the news that CLF was abandoning the race and added that a No Going Back, which is funded by Donald Trump’s network, was also pulling out. Meanwhile, CLF is pushing back against reporting that it triaged California’s swingy 13th District, where Republican Kevin Lincoln is seeking to unseat Democratic Rep. Adam Gray. Data from AdImpact released on Tuesday showed that CLF had cut more than $4 million in planned advertising from the race, but according to Punchbowl, the PAC is “scaling back on its broadcast TV but is investing in other media in the district.” It’s not yet clear how much CLF still plans to invest, but Politico reported on Wednesday that an unnamed GOP operative said the group was “not reducing its spending in the district.” Stay on top of all House race triage by bookmarking our continually updated tracker. Poll PileAll polls must comply with The Downballot’s requirements.
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