Morning Digest: Republicans are sweating all five Texas seats they gerrymandered
Morning Digest: Republicans are sweating all five Texas seats they gerrymanderedEven deep-red districts that should've been automatic flips are drawing GOP spending
Leading OffTexasAll five districts Republicans targeted when they gerrymandered Texas’ congressional map at Donald Trump’s behest last year nonetheless remain in play, including two seats that had once looked all but impossible for Democrats to hold. A new poll from the University of Houston shows Republican Alex Mealer with a modest 48-42 advantage over Democrat Leticia Gutierrez in the open 9th District, a constituency Donald Trump would have carried in a 59-40 landslide just two years ago. Respondents, however, now give Trump a negative 46-53 favorability rating. And deep-pocketed Republican outfits were already treating the 9th, which now includes the eastern reaches of Houston’s Harris County and areas further east, as competitive even before UH released this survey. Conservative groups have spent more than $1.1 million since the start of September to boost Mealer, an Army veteran who lost a tight 2022 race to lead Harris County and then spent the better part of a year unsuccessfully challenging the result in court. Democratic organizations, by contrast, have deployed just over $300,000 to help Gutierrez, an environmental advocate. That sum, though, is still notable given that just about every political observer anticipated Republicans would easily flip this seat following their adoption of the state’s new map last year. Facing the prospect of campaigning on such daunting turf, Democratic Rep. Al Green opted to run for the heavily Democratic 18th District rather than seek reelection in the 9th, which shared little more than a number with his old constituency. However, he ultimately lost the Democratic primary to fellow Rep. Christian Menefee. Meanwhile, Gutierrez and five other Democrats campaigned to defend the now-open 9th, but her decisive 54-16 win in the primary generated little attention. The GOP contest, however, was an expensive fight that continued for nearly three more months after no one claimed a majority in the first round of voting. Mealer, who had Trump’s endorsement, finally claimed the prize just after Memorial Day with her landslide 68-32 over state Rep. Briscoe Cain, Gov. Greg Abbott’s pick. Mealer’s frontrunner status was reaffirmed this summer when fundraising data revealed she’d outraised Gutierrez by a huge margin, though new reports are due on Thursday. Trump’s declining approval ratings, however, have put the GOP on the defensive in seats across the country that seemed secure just months ago. And his weak standing with Latinos, a constituency that swung hard in his direction during the last two presidential races, could pose an especially serious risk for his party in districts like the 9th, where Latinos make up over half of the voting-age population. The 32nd District, another open seat that the GOP seemed to have redrawn into an automatic flip, may also not be a sure thing for Republicans. An affiliate of the Club for Growth has spent just over $230,000 to help attorney Jace Yarbrough against Democrat Dan Barrios. There have been no Democratic independent expenditures yet to aid Barrios, a former member of the Richardson City Council. Republican mapmakers made Democratic Rep. Julie Johnson’s Dallas-based 32nd District all but unrecognizable by replacing Democratic-leaning communities with rural turf far to the east. This transformation turned her racially diverse and safely blue constituency into a majority-white seat Trump would have carried 58-40, prompting Johnson to run for the still-blue 33nd District. (She lost the nomination to former Rep. Colin Allred.) Yarbrough emerged as the favorite in the nine-person Republican field for the 32nd District after he secured endorsements from both Trump and Abbott, though his ascendancy brought scrutiny far outside of Texas. The Guardian profiled Yarbrough in February in a piece that, among other things, highlighted comments he made at a forum saying that he was “past trying to placate” critics who believe his views are “bigoted and backward and oppressive and Nazi-ish.” In the MAGA-era GOP, however, those remarks were anything but a deal-breaker. Yarbrough outpaced pastor Ryan Binkley 49-22 in March, and Binkley dropped out rather than compete in a runoff he was all but destined to lose. Barrios, for his part, decisively beat his only primary opponent, but, like Gutierrez, he struggled to convince donors he could beat Yarbrough. And unlike in the 9th, there’s been no polling indicating a competitive contest. The Club, though, isn’t treating Yarbrough as a lock. CNN’s Patrick Svitek last week flagged that its Win It Back affiliate is airing ads declaring that “Dan Barrios is backed by far-left extremists.” But while Republicans are still favored in both the 9th and 32nd, things are far more competitive in the third and final open seat Republicans tried to gerrymander away from Democrats. Major groups from both parties are spending heavily in the 35th District, where Democrat Johnny Garcia, a Bexar County Sheriff’s deputy, is going up against Republican Carlos De La Cruz, an Air Force veteran and the brother of neighboring Rep. Monica De La Cruz. This constituency, which now includes part of San Antonio and rural areas to both the east and south of the city, would have supported Trump 55-44, but that margin by no means makes it secure for the GOP. As in the 9th, Latinos make up just over half of the district’s eligible voters, and a backlash against Republicans could sink De La Cruz, who earned Trump’s endorsement during the primary. Republicans again sought to keep this race from becoming competitive when they meddled in the Democratic runoff to boost Maureen Galindo, a sex therapist who spread antisemitic conspiracy theories during her campaign. But Democrats like Rep. Greg Casar, who successfully claimed his party’s nomination for the 37th District after Republicans transfigured the 35th, backed Garcia ahead of his decisive win. There are also expensive battles underway for a pair of seats in the Rio Grande Valley, where Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez are seeking reelection in districts the GOP also made redder. Republicans, though, seem to have decided Gonzalez is the more vulnerable one: NBC reported late on Tuesday night that top GOP super PACs were abandoning the 28th in favor of the 34th. Trump would have carried each of these constituencies—which are also heavily Latino—by 10 points, but voters are unlikely to feel quite so warmly toward Republicans this time. Cuellar, long one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, is defending the Laredo-area 28th District against Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, a former Democrat who switched parties in 2024. (Tijerina’s post is executive rather than judicial.) Trump hoped Cuellar would make the same decision last year after he pardoned the congressman before his planned trial on corruption charges, but Cuellar instead filed to run for reelection that very day as a Democrat. Trump has continued to fume at Cuellar, whom he blasted last week as “disloyal” and “ungrateful.” Gonzalez, for his part, is going up against Eric Flores, an Army veteran and former federal prosecutor, in the 34th District in the state’s southeasternmost corner. Texas Republicans are also playing defense, thanks in part to their gerrymander. While they didn’t weaken any of their existing seats on a strictly partisan basis, their heavy hand with the cartographer’s pen has nonetheless created a headache for Monica De La Cruz in the 15th District by giving her a constituency that’s almost 60% new to her. De La Cruz faces Democrat Bobby Pulido, a Tejano music star who started the race with unusually high name recognition for a challenger. Trump prevailed 59-41 here two years ago, but this is yet another predominantly Latino constituency where those numbers may no longer mean much. De La Cruz tried to turn her opponent’s celebrity against him in March when she declared in an online video, “This election isn’t about who you want performing at your niece’s quinceañera.” Pulido responded to that dig by spending the ensuing seven months performing at quinceañeras—a traditional coming-of-age rite marking a girl’s 15th birthday celebrated widely in Latin communities throughout the Western Hemisphere—across this sprawling South Texas constituency, and his unusual strategy may be paying off. A poll for his allies at the House Majority PAC showed him with a huge 54-41 advantage last month, and Republicans have yet to counter with their own data. 3Q Fundraising
SenateGA-Sen, NC-SenThe pro-Democratic Senate Majority PAC announced on Tuesday that it was canceling one week’s worth of advertising in Georgia, a day after it said it was making the same cutback in North Carolina. SMP still has ad time reserved in both states for the final two weeks of the election. The moves come about a week after the Senate Leadership Fund, SMP’s counterpart on the right, canceled all its ad time in North Carolina, where polls show Democrat Roy Cooper well ahead of Republican Michael Whatley. The GOP super PAC has yet to make the same decision in Georgia, even though Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff enjoys a comparable advantage over Rep. Mike Collins. GovernorsAK-GovDonald Trump endorsed conservative activist Bernadette Wilson on Tuesday ahead of next month’s general election for Alaska’s open governorship, where Wilson is one of three Republicans facing former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, the lone Democrat. Trump also mocked Wilson’s two intraparty opponents, former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson and former Attorney General Treg Taylor, and complained that his preferred candidate isn’t the only Republican running. On Truth Social, Trump wrote that “threesomes always make it hard to win — Very unfair!” Democrats avoided a similar problem after former state Sen. Tom Begich, who finished just behind Kreiss-Tomkins in the August top-four primary, dropped out and endorsed his former rival. Taylor, who finished fifth, ultimately moved into the general election along with Wilson and Bronson, who respectively finished third and fourth. Limited polling shows Kreiss-Tomkins beating Wilson in the general election, which will be conducted with ranked-choice voting rules. Such a win would make Kreiss-Tomkins the first Democrat to lead Alaska since Tony Knowles was termed out of office in 2002. VT-GovFor the first time since 2018, the Republican Governors Association is spending money on behalf of Vermont Gov. Phil Scott, who faces a competitive election against Democrat Amanda Janoo. The RGA has given at least $400,000 to an allied super PAC, which in turn began airing ads attacking Janoo last week, reports Vermont Public. Scott has won in massive landslides in recent years, but recent polling has shown a much closer race than usual. HouseAZ-02The pro-Democratic House Majority PAC released new TV ads in 34 districts on Tuesday, including four in races where it had not previously been on the air. That quartet includes three Democratic targets deep in red turf: Arizona’s 2nd, Kentucky’s 6th, and Montana’s 1st. Also on the list is one Democratic-held seat, Ohio’s 1st, even though Republicans are simultaneously giving up on that contest (see our Triage item below). HMP’s foray into northeastern Arizona’s sprawling 2nd District is especially notable because Republicans have spent heavily there to protect GOP Rep. Eli Crane, even though the district voted for Donald Trump by an imposing 57-42 margin in 2024. But Crane faces another well-funded challenge from Jonathan Nez, a former president of the Navajo Nation whom he defeated by 9 points two years ago. Since the start of September, the Freedom Caucus and the Trump-funded No Going Back PAC have invested more than $1 million apiece in the race, while outside Democratic groups had spent only around $420,000 prior to HMP’s involvement. HMP’s new ad slams Crane for voting to block the release of the Epstein files, though it’s not clear how much the PAC might deploy on Nez’s behalf. Earlier this year, HMP said it had booked almost $7.7 million in TV time in the Phoenix market, but a large portion of that reservation is getting directed toward the swingy 1st District, a Republican-held open seat. Data from AdImpact shared by ABC15’s Garrett Archer on Tuesday revealed that HMP had removed $550,000 from its planned spending in the 2nd District, though it also showed that the PAC still has $2.75 million in bookings for this contest. Axios’ Andrew Solender subsequently reported that the move is “not the start of a full HMP roll back,” according to an unnamed source, adding that the group “will maintain their future reservations.” The race recently made headlines when No Going Back released an ad featuring the wrong Navajo politician. Instead, the spot twice used a photo of Myron Lizer, who served as the tribal nation’s vice president under Nez from 2019 to 2023, but labeled him as “Jonathan Nez.” Lizer, a Republican and vocal Trump supporter, told KJZZ that he had asked that his image not be used “for political gain” and said to the Navajo Times, “I’m glad they took my picture off of there” after the ad was corrected. Nez, meanwhile, slammed Republicans for “spreading misinformation” but suggested triumph would nonetheless be his. “I guess they don’t care to know my face,” he told the Navajo Times, “but on November 3rd, they’ll hear my voice for sure.” TriageRepublicans are cutting at least six more House races loose, while Democrats are doing the same in a deep-red reach seat, according to new reporting and spending data. The Congressional Leadership Fund and Donald Trump’s super PAC network are triaging two vulnerable GOP incumbents: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who faces Democrat Christina Bohannan in Iowa’s 1st District, and Rep. Tom Kean, who’s running against Democrat Rebecca Bennett in New Jersey’s 7th, per the New York Times. They’re also giving up on two Democratic seats: Michigan’s 8th, held by Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet, and Ohio’s 1st, served by Rep. Greg Landsman. However, a spokesperson for Bennett questioned whether Republicans are actually abandoning the race. In a post published on X following the Times’ report on Tuesday, communications director Carly Jones wrote, “CLF pulling their ads represents, at most, 13% of R’s total spend against Rebecca. They still have $19M in ad reservations.” Meanwhile, one Trump PAC, Safety and Affordability, also cut nearly $1 million from its bookings in Las Vegas that were aimed at helping Republican Marty O’Donnell unseat Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in Nevada’s 3rd District, per AdImpact. That likely represents a week’s worth of planned spending. And according to the firm, CLF pulled more than $4 million from the airwaves in California’s 13th District, where Republican Kevin Lincoln is seeking to oust Democratic Rep. Adam Gray. On the Democratic side, Axios’ Andrew Solender reported that the House Majority PAC is “cutting their ad reservations” in Tennessee’s conservative 5th District, calling the move “a real triage.” The seat had always been a longshot for Democrats, but it became much tougher following a pair of developments earlier this year. First, Republicans made the district even redder with the new gerrymander they passed this spring. Months later, scandal-plagued Rep. Andy Ogles lost the GOP primary to challenge Charlie Hatcher, who was aided by wealthy renewable energy investors and presents a much less flawed opponent for Democrat Chaz Molder. The move in Tennessee is the first such by Democrats this cycle, while Republicans had previously signaled they had abandoned two other races, in Nebraska’s 2nd and New York’s 19th. To keep track of all triage maneuvers in House races this fall, please bookmark our continually updated triage tracker. Mayors & County LeadersHarris County, TX JudgeDemocrat Letitia Plummer holds a 47-40 lead over Republican Orlando Sanchez in the race for the powerful office of Harris County judge, according to a new poll from the University of Houston. This is the first independent poll of the general election to replace retiring incumbent Lina Hidalgo, a Democrat whose office is executive rather than judicial. Plummer, a former Houston city councilwoman who would be both the first African American and first Muslim person to lead America’s third-largest county, won the Democratic nomination in an upset against former Houston Mayor Annise Parker. She now faces Sanchez, a former county treasurer who lost reelection in 2018. Sanchez was unseated the same evening Hidalgo pulled off an upset win against Republican County Judge Ed Emmett, a victory that made her the first Democrat to hold this office since 1974. But while Hidalgo narrowly won reelection in 2022, UH shows her with a poor 30-63 favorable rating at the end of a second term during which she’s frequently clashed with fellow Democrats. Sanchez, however, faces tough headwinds as he tries to prevail in a county where Democrats appear poised to far exceed Kamala Harris’ 52-46 margin from 2024. UH shows James Talarico carrying Harris County 58-36 in the Senate contest, while fellow Democrat Gina Hinojosa posts a 56-40 advantage in the race for governor. Poll PileAll polls must comply with The Downballot’s requirements.
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