Morning Digest: Why Black Democrats don't want Debbie Wasserman Schultz to run for this South Florida district
I was extremely pleased to share the lead item we wrote for yesterday’s Morning Digest, not just because the news is important but because absolutely no one else has covered it. The very short version, though, is that, following Tuesday’s primaries, a trio of renewable energy supporters now have the chance to flip three seats on the board of Omaha’s power company—and with that, take a majority. That could have a profound impact on ratepayers, climate change, and, most especially, the long-delayed closure of a coal-fired power plant that’s caused particular harm to Omaha’s Black community. But the story is even bigger than that. Around the country, we’ve seen anger explode over skyrocketing electricity bills and the headlong rush to build ever more data centers. That’s already translated into major wins for clean energy backers who’ve sought to oversee utilities in Arizona and Georgia, and that’s just the start. I’m proud that we’ve built an independent media outlet capable of understanding trends early on—and tracking down stories that are otherwise getting ignored. If you also believe in our work and want to help ensure we can keep doing it for a long time to come, I hope you’ll consider upgrading to a paid subscription today. And if you prefer to donate to us, you can do that right here. Thank you, David Nir, Publisher Morning Digest: Why Black Democrats don't want Debbie Wasserman Schultz to run for this South Florida districtOn redistricting, the congresswoman says that “you have to just tune out the noise”
Leading OffFL-25, FL-20Longtime Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz has said she’s seeking reelection but hasn’t revealed where—and chatter that she might run in Florida’s majority-Black 20th District has provoked an unhappy response from local Black politicians. Calling the safely blue district “an anchor of Black political representation for over three decades,” the Broward County Democratic Black Caucus has expressly urged the congresswoman to run elsewhere. “To Congresswoman Wasserman Schultz: we acknowledge the new map dismantled much of your current district,” the group said in a statement. “It hurt many of us, and it hurt you too. What we ask is that the choice you make not be FL-20. The new map produced other districts where your record would make you a strong candidate. None of them is this one.” Several Black candidates who were already running for the 20th District, which became vacant last month after Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick resigned amid a corruption scandal, also expressed their deep displeasure with the prospect of a bid by Wasserman Schultz in comments to Politico. Wasserman Schultz, who was elected to the old 25th District in 2024, didn’t seem moved by the complaints, though, telling Politico that “you have to just tune out the noise” whenever maps are redrawn. She added that she was “taking my time” in coming to a decision and said she was engaged in “respectful conversations” with local leaders. Wasserman Schultz, the first Jewish woman to serve Florida in Congress, also has another problem: her lack of ties to the district. According to calculations by The Downballot, she represents just 2% of the residents of the revised 20th. That’s because, as the Broward Black Caucus acknowledged, Wasserman Schultz’s current district was broken into pieces by the GOP’s new gerrymander. A 38% plurality of her constituents have wound up in the deeply conservative 26th District, and just 16% are in the revamped version of the 25th, which now leans to the right. Another 20% were moved to the 24th District, another predominantly Black seat that’s held by Democratic Rep. Frederica Wilson (see our FL-24 item below). That leaves the overhauled 22nd District, another GOP-leaning seat that absorbed 23% of Wasserman Schultz’s constituents. (Numbers do not add up to 100% due to rounding.) A bid for the 22nd District, where no major Democrats are currently running, would probably be of most use to her party. However, Wasserman Schultz has spent most of her career running on friendly turf. That only changed last cycle, when the bottom fell out for Florida Democrats and Kamala Harris carried the old 25th by an unexpectedly tight 52-47 margin. But the new-look 22nd would be tougher still, as it would have gone for Donald Trump 54-45. David Nir here, publisher of The Downballot. I was extremely pleased to share the lead item we wrote for yesterday’s Morning Digest, not just because the news is important but because absolutely no one else has covered it. In case you missed it, you can catch up right here: I’m proud that we’ve built an independent media outlet capable of understanding trends early on—and tracking down stories that are otherwise getting ignored. If you also believe in our work and want to help ensure we can keep doing it for a long time to come, I hope you’ll consider upgrading to a paid subscription today. Election NightLA-SenDonald Trump’s least-favorite Republican senator faces possible political extinction in a Saturday primary wracked by confusion thanks to a GOP effort to cancel many key races. Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy, who cast a fateful vote to convict Trump following his second impeachment, sits in a dismal third place according to an aggregate of public polls compiled by FiftyPlusOne. If those numbers hold, we’d see a June 27 runoff between Trump’s pick, Rep. Julia Letlow, and another fierce Cassidy critic, state Treasurer John Fleming. Letlow currently sits at 32% and Fleming at 25%, with Cassidy taking a dismal 23%. The fight for second place is close enough, though, that the incumbent could still limp onward, especially since there’ve been only two public polls this month. Even if he lives on, though, Cassidy would be in rough shape, as hypothetical two-way matchups have found him badly trailing either of his opponents. And if Cassidy fails to advance altogether, he’d set a mark for ignominy as the first elected senator to place third or worse in a primary in more than 80 years. The last person to experience such a fate, as the University of Minnesota’s Eric Ostermeier explained in a piece earlier this year, was Arkansas Democrat Hattie Caraway, who sank all the way to fourth in her primary when she sought a third full term in 1944. Redistricting RoundupLA RedistrictingRepublican Gov. Jeff Landry has signed a bill rescheduling Louisiana’s canceled House primaries for Nov. 3, with runoffs on Dec. 2 if necessary. Candidates must file by Aug. 7. Unlike the primaries for other offices, which are proceeding on Saturday, those in November will revert to the system the state used in most elections from 1975 onward. Under that method, all candidates from all parties run on a single ballot, with the top two vote-getters advancing to a runoff if no one wins a majority. Landry, though, pushed lawmakers to adopt traditional party primaries two years ago, which will be used this weekend. SC RedistrictingAs expected, Republican Gov. Henry McMaster has called a special session of the legislature for the purpose of redrawing South Carolina’s congressional map, and it’ll begin on Friday—the day after lawmakers wrapped up their regular session. On Tuesday, the state Senate rejected a proposal to reconvene to pursue redistricting, but the following day, multiple media outlets reported that McMaster, who previously indicated he was cool to the idea, would indeed call a special session. Republicans are eager to dismantle the state’s lone majority-Black District, the 6th, which is held by Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn, and they’ve circulated a proposal to do just that. But lawmakers also have something else on their agenda: the state budget. Because the House and Senate failed to agree on one version of the state’s annual appropriations bill, McMaster included the matter in the executive order he issued Thursday calling the special session. That could complicate Republican hopes of passing a new map before early voting begins on May 26 ahead of the state’s June 9 primaries. However, Republicans in Alabama and Louisiana did not hesitate to void primaries that were already underway or close at hand in their rush to enact new maps eliminating districts held by Black Democrats. SenateIA-SenThe Senate Majority PAC, which has rolled out multiple major ad reservations in recent weeks, just added to the pile with a $13.4 million booking in Iowa. SMP, the largest Democratic super PAC involved in Senate races, previously announced making $135 million in reservations across contests in Alaska, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, and Ohio. Exactly who SMP might bestow its help on, though, will remain unresolved until June 2, when Iowa Democrats host a primary between state Rep. Josh Turek and state Sen. Zach Wahls. Turek has posted wide leads in recent internal polling and has received heavy air support from VoteVets, which has pumped in almost $8 million to aid his campaign. But Wahls is finally getting some outside help, from an obscure outfit called Iowa Action. A new spot from the group praises Wahls by saying, “D.C. insiders are spending millions to stop him because they know he’ll be a pain in their side.” It’s not yet clear, though, how much Iowa Action is spending. GovernorsCT-Gov
When New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart, once a rising star among state Republicans, launched her bid last year, she told NBC Connecticut, “And you know, this is not my first rodeo. I ran in 2018 unsuccessfully. I learned a lot about what to do differently.” And on her website, she declared, “I’m running for governor because the clowns in Hartford have run our state into the ground.” On her way out the door, Stewart endorsed state Sen. Ryan Fazio in the race to take on Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont, who is seeking a third term. First, though, both parties will hold conventions this weekend that could impact ballot access for the Aug. 11 primaries, as candidates must win at least 15% of the delegate vote to ensure themselves a spot. If not, they must gather signatures, a difficult and expensive task. Under Connecticut law, candidates for governor only have until June 9 to collect signatures equal to 2% of their party’s registered voters statewide. Based on the most recent statistics, that’s nearly 15,600 for Democrats and almost 9,800 for Republicans. On the GOP side, Fazio is the frontrunner against former New York Lt. Gov. Betsy McCaughey. Lamont, meanwhile, faces a challenge from state Rep. Josh Elliott. FL-GovState Sen. Jason Pizzo, a former Democrat who became an independent last year, announced this week that he will not run for Florida’s open governorship after flirting with a bid for more than a year. HouseFL-24Rep. Frederica Wilson said on Thursday that she hasn’t been seen on Capitol Hill for a month because of surgery on her left eye that has prevented her from flying. While she said she’d been holding public events locally, she did not specify when she might return. The 83-year-old Florida Democrat’s prolonged absence was first flagged by longtime congressional reporter Jamie Dupree, who publishes the newsletter Regular Order. He noted that Wilson last cast a vote on April 17 and that her staff was reposting photos of the congresswoman on social media taken last year in a manner suggesting that they were in fact new. The following day, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters that Wilson was “recovering from a procedure, and I expect that she’ll be back shortly.” NBC reported that Wilson said she expects to be back at work next week, though the network didn’t directly quote her. According to Axios, Wilson has told supporters she plans to seek a ninth term this fall. Under the GOP’s new gerrymander, South Florida’s 24th District would remain safely blue and predominantly Black. The filing deadline for House candidates is June 12. FL-25Union organizer Oliver Larkin, who describes himself as a “proud Democratic Socialist,” announced on Thursday that he’d continue his campaign for Congress in Florida’s redrawn 25th District. Larkin had been challenging Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz in the 23rd District, which Republicans just transformed with their new gerrymander. The revamped 25th, which now stretches from southern Palm Beach County to Miami Beach, is home to a little under half of Moskowitz’s current constituents, so it would be the obvious place for him to seek a third term. The congressman, however, has yet to announce his plans. He recently told Politico that he has not made “a final decision” but would run in the 25th if he decides to pursue a bid for reelection. A major difficulty is that the new district is considerably redder. Kamala Harris carried the old 23rd 51-49 while Donald Trump would have won the revamped 25th 54-45. GA-13Most of the Democrats running to represent Georgia’s vacant 13th District for a full term have opted against entering the July 28 special election for the remaining months of the late Rep. David Scott’s term. With the passage of Wednesday’s filing deadline for the special, the only candidate who filed for both races is Everton Blair, a former chair of the Gwinnett County Board of Education. However, he’ll face a familiar name in the summertime election: activist Marcye Scott, the deceased congressman’s daughter, who recently said she’d run. And even though Scott isn’t seeking the Democratic nomination for a full term—the filing deadline passed before her father’s death—she could still appear on the November ballot. Earlier this week, Scott held out the possibility of an independent bid, telling reporters it’s “an option I’ll explore” if her supporters ask her to. Notably, Georgia is the rare state to require runoffs following the general election if no candidate wins a majority of the vote, something the state experienced in dramatic Senate races in both 2020 and 2022. However, the majority-Black 13th District, which is based in Atlanta, voted for Kamala Harris by a 71-28 margin, so even if a Republican were to make a runoff, they’d face the dimmest of odds. OH-07Republican Rep. Max Miller, whose ex-wife has reportedly accused him of years of physical abuse, filed a defamation lawsuit against his former spouse in state court this week. Miller married Emily Moreno, the daughter of Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno, in 2022, but the two divorced two years later. Both politicians represent the state of Ohio, with Miller facing a potentially competitive reelection battle in the 7th District south of Cleveland. PA-03314 Action Fund, which had been the top supporter of physician Ala Stanford’s campaign for Pennsylvania’s open 3rd District, has gone dark on the airwaves just ahead of Tuesday’s Democratic primary. According to data from AdImpact shared by the Philadelphia Inquirer, 314 Action, which supports candidates with STEM backgrounds, has spent “virtually nothing” on TV ads since May 5 and has nothing booked for the campaign’s final days. To date, 314 Action has deployed almost $3.5 million to boost Stanford, a first-time candidate, and has continued to report five-figure batches of spending on mailers as recently as this week. And Stanford herself is still advertising on television. But she’s experienced a series of stumbles over the last month, including an interview with NBC10 in which she asked reporter Lauren Mayk to “pause” the conversation after a question about immigration enforcement, then followed up with an awkward answer after Mayk insisted the interview continue. A few days later, she pulled out of a debate just two hours beforehand. There’s been no recent public polling, but the Inquirer reported earlier this week that an unreleased survey conducted for 314 Action found that Stanford’s support “had declined precipitously in recent weeks,” according to unnamed sources. That internal poll had Stanford “a distant second place” behind state Rep. Chris Rabb, a vocal progressive, with state Sen. Shariff Street in third place, the paper’s sources said. Poll Pile
Editor’s note: In the previous Digest, we incorrectly stated the results for the top two candidates in Nebraska’s primary for the 3rd District in the Omaha Public Power District. Carol Blood led Jim Smith 47-29, not 47-39. Thank you so much for being a free subscriber to The Downballot! To support our work, we’d be grateful if you’d become a paid subscriber. |
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