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100+ specials since Trump’s return show Democrats in good position to reclaim the House

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The Downballot has followed special elections more closely than anyone else for over a decade, which is why we’re pleased to bring you this special report looking back on races this cycle to help us understand what they’re telling us about November. When it comes to specials, we had two key insights. First, instead of looking at these races one by one, we aggregated them. And second, we realized we should compare them to the results of the most recent presidential election within each district, to give us a uniform baseline. That latter step was only possible, though, because we’d done the extremely hard work of actually calculating those presidential numbers on a district-by-district basis. Some other folks reputedly had data like that, but they kept it under lock and key. We, on the other hand, made it freely available to all. It was a long time before our methods achieved wide acceptance, but now everyone knows what you’re talking about when you say, for instance, that Democrats ar...

Wild new details of obsessed Trump aide spill into public

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  Natalie Harp reportedly jumped into SUV trunk to follow Trump after "screaming match" The details of Donald Trump's awkward relationship with 35-year-old White House aide Natalie Harp keep coming, and, hoo-boy, does this story just keep getting weirder. According to a new CNN report, Harp once jumped into the trunk of an SUV after a "screaming match" with staffers who told her there was no room for her in Donald's motorcade. Totally normal behavior. In a separate but e qually bizarre incident reported by The New York Times , Harp once sprinted "across great distances to keep up with Mr. Trump’s golf cart" during a golf outing in Scotland. She wrote her boss a personal letter about the incident later, explaining: "I also am sorry if I was an embarrassment walking the course in Scotland. I want things to always be right between us. I also know I've been distracted all week (forgetting to eat throughout the days, and even forgetting to sle...

Morning Digest: In Scandals v. Trump, Trump takes the L

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Morning Digest: In Scandals v. Trump, Trump takes the L Cory Mills just became the latest Trump-backed House Republican to fall David Nir and Jeff Singer Aug 19 Florida Rep. Cory Mills (R) in a screenshot from a 2022 campaign ad. Leading Off FL-07 Former TV anchor Ryan Elijah decisively defeated Rep. Cory Mills , who had Donald Trump’s endorsement despite numerous scandals, by a 47-34 margin in Tuesday’s Republican primary for Florida’s 7th Congressional District. Elijah will face former NASA chief of staff Bale Dalton, who had the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s endorsement . Dalton outpaced Navy veteran Marialana Kinter 45-36, while former Rep. Alan Grayson, who long ago morphed into a perennial candidate, took a distant third with 19%. Elijah’s victory against Mills makes an already tough pickup opportunity for Democrats even tougher. The 7th District, based in the northern Orlando suburbs and part of the Daytona Beach area, favored Trump 56-43 in 2024 after supporti...