Morning all. Here are some headlines Republicans are waking up to today:
“Heading Towards The Midterms, The GOP Continues To Slip” - NYT
“Surprisingly tough Tennessee election reveals House GOP has base problem” - Washington Post
“Republicans held a Trump +22 seat — but by only 9 points. A swing half as large would give Democrats the U.S. House in 2026, and put the Senate clearly in play” - Strength In Numbers
And then there is this beautiful front page of Politico right now:
As I’ve been writing here various measures of party strength and the results from special elections and the November elections put the shift in the national political landscape at somewhere between 7 and 13 points towards the Democrats all across the country. As G. Elliott Morris writes above it’s a big enough shift to make it likely the House flips and the Senate will be in play.
While 2026 is turning out to be a year of opportunity for Democrats and the pro-democracy movement we still have one more election to win this year - electing Eileen Higgins the Mayor of Miami. Please consider donating or volunteering today, and watch our recent conversation to learn more about this huge pick up opportunity in Trump-DeSantis country:
Hopium paid subscribers gather tonight at 7pm EST to review our strong performance in TN-7, thank the inspiring Aftyn Behn for running a terrific race, and discuss how we can close 2025 strong. I look forward to seeing folks tonight.
A few additional observations this morning:
Things Are Likely To Get Worse For Trump and The Rs - The likely scenario next year is that things get worse for the Rs for two reasons: 1) conditions in the US will continue to erode 2) in a month every state and local government will start debating and legislating against the disaster Trump and the Rs have handed them - a slower economy (less revenue), huge health care and social safety net cuts, higher prices and weakened families, struggling small business and farmers, worker shortages and ICE abuses, higher utility prices, gutting of federal grants to large research institutions, etc…..
As bad as things are now for Republicans they are likely to get worse next year, and their electoral prospects will grow more challenging.
It needs to be noted that Trump just keeps dropping in public polls. For months now the big independent polls keep finding him lower than their last poll. He has never stabilized or recovered. Despite their money, their propaganda, their control of government Trump and his team have been unable to stop his slide, suggesting that it just may continue.
Here’s today’s Civiqs track. Just slow, steady, grinding erosion:
Here’s my weekly breakdown of the Economist/YouGov track. Staggering levels of across the board rejection:
The Regime Is Weakening And Starting To Crack - A few fresh examples this morning:
Watch this incredible video CNN found of a pre-Trump Pete Hegseth saying the military must not follow unlawful orders:
Here is a prominent right-aligned legal commentator, a Fox News veteran, saying plainly on Newsmax that Pete Hegseth committed war crimes and should be prosecuted:
Trump fell asleep again yesterday, in the middle of the day, at an event he was hosting for the media, with lights blaring. Trump is struggling to do the very basics of the job now, and his very clear and public physical and cognitive decline must become front and center in our politics now (how can we trust him to protect us, make sound decisions, etc?).
In yesterday’s Cabinet meeting our addled, impulsive, frightened, prone to confusion and misstatement leader had a deeply damaging "they are for the oligarchs, we are for the people” moment:
President Trump on Tuesday downplayed the cost-of-living pains being felt by Americans, declaring that affordability “doesn’t mean anything to anybody” as his political edge on the economy continues to dissipate.
In remarks during a cabinet meeting, Mr. Trump railed against Democrats who have championed the issue, which helped the party secure several off-year election victories last month and is likely to be a defining topic in the midterms next year.
After ticking off what he claimed were trillions of dollars of investments and other economic accomplishments, Mr. Trump called the issue of affordability a “fake narrative” and “con job” created by Democrats to dupe the public.
“They just say the word,” he said. “It doesn’t mean anything to anybody. They just say it — affordability. I inherited the worst inflation in history. There was no affordability. Nobody could afford anything.”
The comments marked something of a turnabout for Mr. Trump, who just last weekend appeared to acknowledge the salience of the issue, calling himself the “affordability president” and promoting his efforts to bring down prices.
The cowardly Speaker’s ability to hold the line for Trump may be coming to an end. From Punchbowl News:
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is now engaged in an open war with Speaker Mike Johnson, a very public rift at the highest level of the House Republican Conference.
This fight is ostensibly about a dispute in the NDAA, the annual Pentagon policy bill.
Stefanik is so frustrated that she’s prepared to tank the must-pass defense bill — approved by lawmakers every year for more than six decades — if the speaker doesn’t include a provision requiring the FBI to alert Congress if it opens a counterintelligence investigation into an elected official or candidate. Democrats are opposed to this provision.
“I’ll take down the rule,” Stefanik told us in an interview. Stefanik has made this message clear to House GOP leaders as well.
As of very early Wednesday morning, sources said that Stefanik’s war might be successful. There was an effort afoot to put the provision back in the NDAA, showing that Stefanik’s brutal bare-knuckled effort is gaining traction.
And that’s why this fight says so much about today’s House.
Stefanik, whom Johnson appointed the chair of the Republican leadership, is a wily operator. Remember, Stefanik helped topple former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) back in 2021 for not being loyal enough to President Donald Trump. Stefanik replaced Cheney in the leadership under then Speaker Kevin McCarthy, with whom she enjoyed a better relationship.
Johnson is undergoing a particularly perilous moment. The Louisiana Republican is entering the most difficult stretch of his speakership, with anger over government spending, health care and the broader political climate rife inside the House GOP Conference.
Members find it easy – even convenient – to hammer the speaker. Johnson has little choice but to bend as he has a two-vote margin. And the speaker has lots of retiring members who are running for other offices, often by bashing the very Congress they serve in.
and……
Stefanik has gone absolutely ballistic on Johnson in the most public way during this dispute, saying the speaker was lying about her and instructing him to “fix this” – in other words, get the provision into the bill. Stefanik said Johnson was “blocking” her policy and the speaker was getting “rolled” by Democrats.
Johnson has had an incredibly rough period since the shutdown ended a few weeks ago – as if that episode wasn’t enough.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) announced her resignation, criticizing the speaker and the House on her way out. There was a revolt on the House floor Tuesday as hardline Republicans led by Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas). Roy – who is running for Texas attorney general – lashed out at the GOP leadership’s decision to move forward with a bill regulating the pay of collegiate athletes.
And Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) is so sick of the leadership that she’s filed a discharge petition to force a vote on legislation banning stock trading for members of Congress. Stefanik has signed on.
The politics. Of course, Stefanik is running for governor of New York herself. That comes with a whole host of political priorities that don’t always line up with the House Republican majority. Picking a fight with Johnson might be good for Stefanik’s own Empire State politics, especially if this is seen as a pro-Trump move.
Stefanik can hardly seem to contain her personal disdain for Johnson, though. The tension between Stefanik and Johnson has been at a low boil for some time.
And…..
This is all a huge warning sign for Johnson. If the speaker faces this kind of very public pushback from a member of his own leadership team, how will Johnson be able to make bipartisan deals on Obamacare, FY2026 spending or anything else? Johnson has relied on Trump to help him achieve anything during this Congress, yet what if Republicans need to create distance from Trump in order to further their own careers?
With a margin this thin, Johnson is waging internal battles every day. And that’s even before he can turn his attention to Democrats.
As I wrote to you yesterday the big lesson of 2025 is that when we fight this corrupt, rotten to the core, malevolent, sundowning baby man we can win. Which is why should be approaching these next few months with greater ambition, renewed confidence, and audacious courage. For more is possible for us now - but, only, only, if we fight.
Closing 2025 Strong
Winning The Midterms - Support Our 2026 Candidates
Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $55k raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my conversation with Gov. Cooper
Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $100k raised, $250,000 goal, - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff
Hopium Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $27,000 raised, $50,000 goal - Donate to all four endorsed House challengers with one click | Learn More | Enjoy our new conversations with Christina Bohannan (IA-01) and Jo Mendoza (AZ-06) | Interviews with Paige Cognetti (PA-08) and Janelle Stelson (PA-10) coming soon
Hopium House 7 - Our Top House Incumbents Running For Re-election (2026) - $249k raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer | Watch My Interviews With Our Intrepid Incumbents | Keeping these newly elected Members in Congress is the first step in winning the House in 2026
Expanding The Senate and Electoral College Maps (2026-2032)
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $217,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Join our new campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas | Donate to all five state parties in a single contribution | Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties!
Defending America, Winning The Big Arguments With Trump - We have three recommended actions today:
1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Five-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our now five part agenda:
Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia; demand Congress rebuke/issue a no confidence vote on his current efforts to force Ukraine to surrender
Congress must stand forcefully for rule of law in the Caribbean - these illegal strikes must end; no war can be waged without Congressional approval; there must accountability for those who have broken the law
Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world
Defend our democracy, rule of law, and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE; restoring due process for immigrants across the country; vigorously defending the 1st Amendment; warring against his outrageous targeting of his domestic political opponents; ending the use of the military on our streets and the unlawful occupation of our cities; stopping the unprecedented corruption; and by forcing the Administration to finally comply with Congress, end the rancid cover up, and release all of the Epstein files
Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; support and co-sponsor Rep. Haley Stevens’ effort to Impeach and remove Robert Kennedy
2 - Celebrate America, Our Constitution, Our 250th Birthday By Bringing Our Resolutions Project To Your Community - Next year, on July 4th, America celebrates it’s 250th birthday. We need to make this holiday, a celebration of our Declaration Of Independence from a mad king, our day, and not allow it to become his.
One way we can do this is by bringing our Resolutions Project to your community or state. Imagine if by July 4th of next year a large number of towns, counties and states had passed formal resolutions, in the spirit of our Declaration of Independence, defending our Constitution and condemning the “injuries,” “abuses,” and “usurpations” of our mad king. For as our Founders wrote in the Declaration:
But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.
So far Hopium members have introduced or passed resolutions in 85 communities in 23 states. In the coming days we will be convening to discuss how to bring this campaign to more places and start planning to Own The Fourth next year.
Keep working hard all. I am proud, oh so proud, to be in this fight with all of you - Simon
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