Morning Digest: Voters have the chance to protect abortion access this fall—even in Idaho
Morning Digest: Voters have the chance to protect abortion access this fall—even in IdahoReproductive rights will be on the ballot in as many as five states
Leading OffAbortionVoters in as many as five states will have the chance to either safeguard—or roll back—abortion access this fall, among them Idaho, where election officials confirmed Monday that an initiative to restore the right to an abortion has qualified for the November ballot. Nevada and Virginia, meanwhile, will choose whether to amend their constitutions to enshrine existing protections. Republicans in Missouri, by contrast, are asking voters to repeal an amendment they approved two years ago to restore reproductive rights. And conservatives in Colorado are collecting signatures in an attempt to remove constitutional language protecting abortion rights that voters overwhelmingly passed in 2024. The Idaho measure, known as the Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act, would end the near-total ban that took effect in 2022 after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. It would be replaced by a statute that, as the initiative describes itself, “establishes a right to make private reproductive health care decisions, including abortion up to fetal viability and in medical emergencies.” Fetal viability, which refers to the point at which a fetus can survive outside a womb, is generally viewed by experts as beginning at around 23 to 24 weeks of pregnancy. While Idaho is one of the most Republican states in the nation, the campaign behind the initiative argues its plan can capture the simple majority it needs to prevail. Idahoans United for Women and Families says that over one-quarter of the 110,000 voters who signed its petition are registered Republicans. Proponents have also drawn attention to a poll conducted by Boise State University last fall that found about 60% of respondents favored the proposed initiative, with roughly half that many opposed. No one, however, has released any polling this year testing how the plan will perform at the ballot box. The Idaho Republican Party, however, is calling for the GOP-dominated state government to ensure the status quo remains intact no matter what voters decide. Last month, the party passed a resolution calling for lawmakers to use their power “to amend or repeal voter-approved ballot initiatives” should this proposal pass this fall. Reproductive rights advocates in Nevada and Virginia, by contrast, are promoting constitutional amendments that would protect abortion rights should Republicans one day regain power in either state. In Nevada, voters long ago took steps to safeguard abortion access through an unusual “statute affirmation” referendum in 1990, but an amendment would be even harder to undo. While Nevada is one of the nation’s premier swing states, proponents have reason to feel good that their amendment, which will be identified as Question 6 on the ballot, will easily succeed. The state has an unusual law that requires any citizen-initiated amendments to pass in two back-to-back general elections. Question 6 cleared the first hurdle in 2024 when it passed in a 64-36 landslide even as Donald Trump was taking Nevada’s six electoral votes. One more victory would ensure its success. Virginia’s Democratic-led legislature, meanwhile, voted over the winter to place an amendment on the ballot that would also enshrine the right to reproductive freedom in the state constitution. A poll conducted in January by Christopher Newport University showed a strong 66-28 majority of voters in support of the plan. The Republicans who control Missouri’s state government want to achieve the very opposite objective this fall with a proposal that would remove protections voters just put into place. In 2024, voters narrowly approved an amendment by a 52-48 margin that undid a law Republicans had enacted banning abortion except in cases of certain medical emergencies. The state constitution now says the state government “shall not deny or infringe upon a person’s fundamental right to reproductive freedom,” with “abortion care” specifically mentioned. That outcome made Missouri the first state where voters restored abortion rights they’d lost in 2022, leading a judge to strike down most of the state’s restrictions on the procedure last month. But the battle is by no means over. Last year, lawmakers voted to place what’s now known as Amendment 3 on the general election ballot to repeal the 2024 amendment and once again allow lawmakers to “enact laws that regulate the provision of abortions.” The new amendment also includes a ban on gender-affirming care for minors, a plank that proponents highlight first on their website. A poll conducted in February by St. Louis University and YouGov showed a 47-40 plurality supporting Amendment 3, though there has been no other data on the topic. Before Amendment 3 appears on the ballot in November, voters will weigh in on a different GOP proposal called Amendment 4 that would make it all but impossible for citizens to pass initiatives in the future. That requirement, though, wouldn’t apply to amendments advanced by the legislature, which would still require only a simple majority to pass.
Finally, conservatives in Colorado are similarly promoting a plan to excise an abortion rights amendment voters approved recently, but they face a much tougher task than their counterparts in Missouri. Two years ago, Coloradans voted 62-38 to place language into the constitution that guarantees the right to an abortion, as well as repeal a 40-year-old amendment that prohibited the state from using public funds to pay for abortions. A pair of longtime anti-abortion activists, though, responded to that setback by organizing a campaign to scrap the new amendment. It remains to be seen, though, whether it will appear on the ballot this fall. The campaign has until Aug. 3 to turn in 124,238 valid signatures, a figure that represents 5% of the total number of votes cast in the most recent election for secretary of state. It must also hit targets in each of the state’s 35 state Senate districts. GovernorsNE-GovFormer Nebraska state Sen. Brett Lindstrom, who previously derided speculation that he might run for governor as “wishful thinking,” is now running for governor. Lindstrom, a longtime Republican, left the GOP to become an independent earlier this year, not long after he abandoned his bid for the open 2nd Congressional District. At the time, the ex-lawmaker explained his rationale by telling the Nebraska Examiner, “I don’t feel like I fit in this political environment.” Now, though, he’s trying to fit back into it, though first he must collect 4,000 signatures by Aug. 3 to appear on the November ballot. However, he’s been vague about why exactly he wants to challenge Republican Gov. Jim Pillen, saying to the Examiner, “It’s a lot of different things that I just don’t think there’s been a vision articulated on who we are and where we’re going.” Lindstrom and Pillen previously squared off in the GOP primary in 2022. Pillen won the nod with 34% of the vote while Lindstrom finished third with 26%, then easily prevailed in the general election. This fall, Pillen faces former state Sen. Lynne Walz, who is hoping to become the first Democrat to win a bid for governor in Nebraska since 1994. HouseAZ-01Former TV news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods has earned the support of Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly ahead of next week’s busy Democratic primary in the 1st Congressional District. CT-01VoteVets announced Tuesday that it was spending “nearly $1 million” on ads promoting former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin ahead of his matchup with longtime Rep. John Larson in the Aug. 11 Democratic primary. The buy represents the first major outside spending from any group ahead of the contest for Connecticut’s safely Democratic 1st District. VoteVets’ opening spot touts Bronin’s service in the Navy Reserve as part of an anti-corruption task force. The narrator tells the audience that Bronin will “take on the corruption in Washington” by “[m]aking big corporations pay what they owe—and leading the fight to bring down costs for central Connecticut families.” The commercial does not mention Larson or either of the other two Democrats competing for the nomination, Hartford Board of Education member Ruth Fortune and state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest. MI-10Former prosecutor Robert Lulgjuraj announced Tuesday that he was dropping out of the Aug. 4 Republican primary for Michigan’s 10th District, a decision that came three weeks after Donald Trump endorsed Army National Guard officer Mike Bouchard for this competitive open seat. Bouchard, the son and namesake of Oakland County’s longtime sheriff, is the favorite next month to defeat attorney Justin Kirk, who has self-funded most of his campaign, and one other little-known rival. Democrats have a three-way primary between former prosecutor Christina Hines, former Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel, and Eric Chung, who served as an attorney in the U.S. Department of Commerce. Calculations by The Downballot show that the 10th District, which GOP Rep. John James is giving up to run for governor, supported Trump 52-46 in 2024. NH-01, TN-09Donald Trump has issued two more endorsements of candidates running for the House. In New Hampshire’s swingy 1st District, Trump gave his backing to wealthy real estate developer Anthony DiLorenzo, who is one of several Republicans seeking the seat that Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is giving up to wage a bid for the Senate. Meanwhile, in Tennessee, Trump has blessed state Sen. Brent Taylor, who likewise faces a busy primary for the 9th District. That seat is open as well, but for an entirely different reason: Republicans recently gerrymandered this district, which for decades had been home to a Black majority, prompting longtime Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen to retire. Poll Pile
Editor’s Note: The last Digest incorrectly identified Chris Pappas as the incumbent in New Hampshire’s Senate race in our fundraising roundup. Thank you so much for being a paid subscriber to The Downballot! If you’d like to further support our work, you can donate on our ActBlue page. |
Comments
Post a Comment