Morning Digest, sponsored by the Michigan Creator Collaborative: Democrats have one more chance for a special elec…
Morning Digest, sponsored by the Michigan Creator Collaborative: Democrats have one more chance for a special election flipTuesday's contest in Pennsylvania comes ahead of a major battle for control of legislature
Leading OffPA State HouseThe final legislative special election before November is taking place on Tuesday in western Pennsylvania, giving Democrats one last chance to flip a conservative district in the state House ahead of this fall’s battle for control of the legislature. Democrat Brandon Dukes, who works as a construction loan administrator, will face Republican Scott Timko, an Air Force veteran, for the 12th House District in Butler County, just north of Pittsburgh.
Calculations by The Downballot show that Donald Trump carried this constituency 59-40 in 2024 as Republican state Rep. Stephenie Scialabba won a second term by a wider 65-35 spread. Scialabba announced in February that she would not seek reelection so she could focus on caring for her child, then said the following month that she would resign from office early. Republicans have held the 12th District since Democratic state Rep. Patricia Carone switched parties in 1993, but Dukes argues that strong showings by Democrats in special elections make this a race to watch. “You saw all across the country this past year alone how many Republican-held legislative seats flipped to Democrats and cut well into Trump’s margins from 2024,” he told WESA in March. Democrats, as The Downballot’s special elections Big Board shows, have flipped 12 Republican-controlled districts via special elections since Trump reclaimed that White House. One of those victories took place in Pennsylvania in March of last year when Democrat James Malone scored a stunning 50-49 victory in the 36th Senate District, a Lancaster County constituency Trump had carried 57-42 just months before. Democrats also picked up an additional 18 seats in New Jersey and Virginia during those states’ regularly scheduled contests last November. Republicans, despite some tantalizing opportunities, have failed to take a Democratic-held legislative seat anywhere in the nation. But flips aren’t the only way to measure how strong Democratic candidates have been at the ballot box. Democrats have outperformed Kamala Harris’ margin by an average of 12.5% percentage points in 109 different legislative and congressional special elections since January of last year. Dukes, however, will need to beat that if he’s to prevail. Such a win, though, would by no means be unprecedented. Democrats have run ahead of Harris by 19 points or more in 30% of special elections this cycle. One such showing also occurred in Pennsylvania three months ago in a seat Trump carried 66-33. While Democrat Ron Ruman lost to Republican George Margetas 55-45 in the 196th District in York County, that represented a 23-point overperformance compared to the 2024 presidential election results. With this backdrop in mind, both parties are treating the 12th District as competitive. WESA reports that House Democrats contributed $110,000 to Dukes earlier this month, while the state GOP has spent $50,000 on mailers to help Timko. But no matter what happens on Tuesday, Dukes and Timko will face off again this fall for a full two-year term on the same night Democrats are defending the razor-thin majority they first won in 2022. That year, Josh Shapiro’s landslide victory in the race for governor helped his party earn a 102-101 edge in the 203-member House (the second-largest state legislative chamber in the country), a stunning result that ended 12 years of GOP control. Democrats protected that slender majority during a tumultuous two-year period that featured 10 special elections—plus two different speakers—but saw not one seat change hands. Both parties went into the 2024 election hoping to make gains in a chamber where neither had any room for error, but not a single district flipped in either direction that fall. That state of affairs has held since then, but Dukes gives Democrats one last chance to break four years of stasis before November. Democrats are also aiming to end 32 years of GOP rule in the state Senate, where Republicans are defending a 27-23 majority. But only half of the body’s seats, including the conservative constituency Malone flipped last year, are up for election this cycle, which limits the number of targets for the minority party. Democrats need to net two seats and reelect the ticket of Shapiro and Lt. Gov. Austin Davis to deadlock the chamber and benefit from Davis’ tie-breaking vote. But because the state constitution places limits on how the lieutenant governor can resolve ties, a 25-25 split still wouldn’t give Davis’ party complete control. For that, they’d need to flip three seats. Even a tie, though, would give Democrats the chance to wield more power in state government than they’ve enjoyed in generations, and they’re aiming to seize it. Shapiro has made the battle for the legislature a priority in a year where he enjoys a huge polling edge in his campaign for a second term. The Downballot PodcastWhat the hell just happened in Wisconsin?Wisconsin’s Democratic primary for governor saw a shocking upset Tuesday night as David Crowley, who had dropped out of the race earlier this summer before jumping back in, defeated Francesca Hong, who’d been leading in polls by double digits. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay run through all the key election results from Tuesday night, including Minnesota’s races for governor and Senate, South Carolina’s special Senate primary to replace Lindsey Graham, and the defeat of another House incumbent, this time in Connecticut. David and Joe then preview the last big primary night of the season, with key races in Alaska and Florida. The hosts explain how Alaska’s unique top-four primary has scrambled the governor’s race, leading to real uncertainty about which major candidates will advance. And in Florida, they discuss the battles for governor and Senate as well as several House races that got upended by the GOP’s extreme new gerrymander. Subscribe here on your favorite podcast app to make sure you never miss an episode. HouseFL-22The hardline Club for Growth endorsed wealthy crypto businessman Michael Carbonara on Tuesday, just ahead of next week’s Republican primary for South Florida’s revamped 22nd District. The deep-pocketed group tells The Hill it’s spending $700,000 as part of an ad buy going after Carbonara’s two main intraparty opponents. One spot attacks Casey Askar, the owner of numerous fast food franchises, for suing now-Rep. Byron Donalds for defamation after Donalds defeated him in a packed 2020 primary for the old 19th District. The dispute arose on the day of that primary after Donalds took to social media to accuse Askar of being behind a text message falsely claiming Donalds was dropping out. Askar, who finished a close third, filed a lawsuit shortly after the general election claiming the congressman-elect had engaged in an “intentional and malicious campaign of lies” against him. A judge, though, in 2022 ruled in favor of Donalds, who is now the frontrunner in next week’s primary for governor. The Club’s other commercial goes after university official Belinda Keiser, who, like Carbonara and Askar, has self-funded most of her campaign. This spot, though, accuses Keiser of having used her wealth to contribute to Democrats like Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, and Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz. It also faults her for donating to unidentified “Never Trumpers who voted to impeach or convict President Trump.” Keiser, a vice chancellor at the eponymous university her husband, Arthur Keiser, founded in the 1970s, is a former Democrat who narrowly lost a 2000 primary for a seat in the state House. Keiser, who unsuccessfully sought the GOP nomination for state Senate in 2018, recently told CBS of her past, “Looking at some of the presidents I admired the most, presidents Trump, President Reagan, at one time in their life, they were Democrats.” Trump has not taken sides in the GOP primary for the open 22nd District, which Republican mapmakers dramatically redrew this year as part of their effort to flip more Democratic-held seats. The new 22nd, which sprawls from Palm Beach and Broward counties west to communities along the Gulf Coast, would have backed Trump 55-44 in 2024. Joe Biden, however, would have carried it 51-48 four years earlier. Businesswoman Pia Dandiya, the only well-funded Democrat in the race, is testing whether voters are having second thoughts about the GOP in 2026. Last month, the DCCC added Dandiya to its “Red to Blue” list highlighting top candidates, though major groups have yet to make fall TV ad reservations that could be used here. Poll Pile
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